An Integrated Biosecurity Risk Assessment Model (IBRAM) For Evaluating the Risk of Import Pathways for the Establishment of Invasive Species

Abstract

An important aspect of analyzing the risk of unwanted organisms establishing in an area is understanding the pathways by which they arrive. Evaluating the risks of these pathways requires use of data from multiple sources, which frequently are uncertain. To address the needs of agencies responsible for biosecurity operations, we present an Integrated Biosecurity Risk Assessment Model (IBRAM) for evaluating the risk of establishment and dispersal of invasive species along trade pathways. The IBRAM framework consists of multiple linked models which describe pest entry into the country, escape along trade pathways, initial dispersal into the environment, habitat suitability, probabilities of establishment and spread, and the consequences of these invasions. Bayesian networks (BN) are used extensively to model these processes. The model includes dynamic BN components and geographic data, resulting in distributions of output parameters over spatial and temporal axes. IBRAM is supported by a web-based tool that allows users to run the model on real-world pest examples and investigate the impact of alternative risk management scenarios, to explore the effect of various interventions and resource allocations. Two case studies are provided as examples of how IBRAM may be used: Queensland fruit fly (Bactrocera tryoni) (Diptera: Tephritidae) and brown marmorated stink bug (Halyomorpha halys) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) are unwanted organisms with the potential to invade Aotearoa New Zealand, and IBRAM has been influential in evaluating the efficacy of pathway management to mitigate the risk of their establishment in the country.

Risk Assessment Model System for Aquatic Animal Introduction Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

“…The IBRAM framework consists of multiple interrelated models that describe the entry of pests into the country, their escape along trade pathways, their initial dispersal into the environment, their habitat suitability, the probabilities of their establishment and spread, and the consequences of these intrusions. Compared with the previously discussed assessment system, the assessment object of IBRAM usually concerns imported products harboring IS, and the assessment focuses on the risk of these organisms establishing and dispersing within the region of assessment, which can better integrate with the actual situation of trade [ 77 ].…”

Bayesian networks for risk analysis and decision support

“…Finally, two articles focus mainly on BN applications. Jamieson et al (2021) present an Integrated Biosecurity Risk Assessment Model (IBRAM) for evaluating the risk of establishment and dispersal of invasive species along trade pathways. The IBRAM framework consists of multiple linked BNs that model pest entry into the country, escape along trade pathways, dispersal into the environment, and potentially establishment and spread.…”

“…A natural starting point for such developments could originate from the flexibility of BNs as general probabilistic models (generalizing for example, decision trees, regression models, data assimilation models, and others). This general applicability accompanied by graphical advantages is explored in Jamieson et al (2021) and Meurisse et al (2021).…”

“…This general applicability accompanied by graphical advantages is explored in Jamieson et al. (2021) and Meurisse et al. (2021).…”

Value‐adding in biosecurity surveillance and monitoring: Testing colour and non‐target semiochemical lures on Psylloidea and Pentatomoidea

“…Given the cost of surveillance, the rigour required (Welsh et al, 2021), and the increasing numbers of invasive pests able to exploit global movement (Tobin et al, 2014), opportunities to increase the surveillance ‘bang for the buck’ should be embraced. Examples of such opportunities include optimising efforts in high‐risk pathways (Jamieson et al, 2022) and value‐adding to surveillance efforts by targeting more than one pest species at each trapping site (e.g., Marchioro et al, 2020; Stringer et al, 2019). Combining the monitoring of established non‐native insect pests with targeted biosecurity surveillance of exotic pests is attractive but is not always employed because of the vast array of insect species with different ecological and biological characteristics, taxonomic challenges, the difference in trap types and finite resources (Brockerhoff et al, 2013).…”