Developers, non‐linearity and asymmetry in the development cycle

Antwi, Adarkwah; Henneberry, John

doi:10.1080/09599919508724146

Cited by 32 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Much of this research has appeared in the last 6 years. It has concentrated on valuation issues (Born and Pyhrr, 1994;Brown, 1994;Phyrr et al, 1996), conceptual modelling (Healy, 1991;Keogh, 1994;Roulac, 1996;Mueller, 1997a,b), specific feature modelling (Barras, 1994;Antwi and Henneberry, 1995;Grenadier, 1995), development of investment strategies (Antwi and Henneberry, 1995;Mueller, 1997a,b), the identification of boom and bust forces (Jones Lang Wootton, 1990;Barras, 1994), along with major empirical studies linking the economic, financial and real estate markets (Barras and Ferguson, 1985;Tsolacos, 1995a,b, 1997;Lizieri and Satchell, 1997). 3.…”

Section: Notesmentioning

confidence: 98%

The probability and timing of price reversals in the property market

Partington

Stevenson

2001

Manage Decis Econ

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In this paper, we develop models for estimating the time varying probability that there will be a price reversal in the property market. Knowledge of such price reversals may be helpful in forming property trading strategies, and providing confirming evidence of turning points in property cycles. Using an index from the UK property market, we obtain the time varying probabilities by estimating state transition rates. State transition rates are estimated for cases where the up-state (a run of positive price changes) switches to the down-state (price falls) and vice versa. We also estimate a model for absolute transitions, where we take no account of the direction of the state transition. The predictive power of our models is assessed using data from a holdout period. We find that the absolute transition model performs worse than separate state transition models for the up-state and the down-state. For these latter models, the more rapid the decline in the forecast probability of a run continuing beyond a certain time, the less likely it is that the run will actually continue. Further, the probability profiles provide a perfect rank ordering of the length of runs in the holdout period. This suggests that the probabilities could be used to predict whether a sequence of price rises or falls will be long- or short-lived. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Section: Notesmentioning

confidence: 98%

The probability and timing of price reversals in the property market

Partington

Stevenson

2001

Manage Decis Econ

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“…Subtracting the total development costs and the desired profits would give the maximum value that a municipality would be willing to pay in order to acquire the land. It is this maximum site value estimate that is regarded in several studies as having the strongest influence on the decision to initiate new development (see Adams et al, 2009;Antwi & Henneberry, 1995;Leishman et al, 2000). The influence on development activity can be described as follows: when expected sales prices of serviced building land are above average, maximum site values will be higher (provided that the development costs remain relatively stable) and municipalities more prone to bid for sites with asking prices that they would normally think not worthwhile purchasing.…”

Section: The Role Of the Development Appraisal In The Investment Decimentioning

confidence: 97%

Understanding industrial land supply: how Dutch municipalities make decisions about supplying serviced building land

Ploegmakers

Krabben

Buitelaar

2013

Journal of Property Research

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The supply side of real estate markets has remained relatively neglected compared to the body of work that studies the demand side. Consequently, little is known about the way that suppliers actually make decisions about the quantity of land and property to be made available for sale at any one time. This paper investigates how one particular type of suppliers, public developers of serviced industrial building land in the Netherlands, assess market conditions, and the way these analyses influence decisions to make more serviced building land available. This paper presents evidence from interviews amongst municipal developers and finds that profit considerations are not the main motive behind their decisions to develop industrial land. Municipalities are involved in land development primarily because they want to be able to steer local economic development. Furthermore, they also pay attention to 'nonprice' signals of market conditions -sales levels in particular -when deciding to make more land available for sale. However, we should be cautious with interpreting these results since this study only addresses public agencies, which might operate with 'soft budget constraints' and might have alternative preference functions than commercial developers.

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“…Certainly, since the persistence of habit in developer behaviour leads to over-building (Antwi & Henneberry, 1995), there are likely to be some developers in the current recession who are thankful for the planning delays that prevented new development at the height of the last boom.…”

Section: The Market Impact Of Planning Actionsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Planners as Market Actors: Rethinking State–Market Relations in Land and Property

Adams

Tiesdell

2010

Planning Theory & Practice

122

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This paper challenges the dichotomous distinction between planning and the market promoted by mainstream economists, by arguing that markets should be seen as socially constructed not given. Drawing on recent developments in institutional and behavioural economics, it contends that what is required is not for planners to become market actors, but rather to realise they are already "market actors" intricately involved in framing and re-framing property markets. By highlighting planners' potential to re-make, rather than merely accept, market conditions, the paper calls for state-market relations in land and property to be accorded a central place within the new spatial planning.

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Developers, non‐linearity and asymmetry in the development cycle

Cited by 32 publications

References 14 publications

The probability and timing of price reversals in the property market

The probability and timing of price reversals in the property market

Understanding industrial land supply: how Dutch municipalities make decisions about supplying serviced building land

Planners as Market Actors: Rethinking State–Market Relations in Land and Property

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