Determining the Impact of Residential Neighbourhood Crime on Housing Investment Using Logistic Regression

Abstract

Abstract. This paper discusses the impact of criminal activities on residential property value. With regard to criminal activities, the paper emphasizes on the contribution of each component of property crime. One thousand (1000) sets of structured questionnaire were administered on the residents of residential estates within the South Western States of Nigeria out of which 467 were considered useable after the data screening. Purposive and systematic sampling techniques were used while logistic regression was used to determine the impact of each of the components of residential property crime on housing investment. The results showed the P-Values of 0.000, 0.322, 0.335, 0.545 and 0.992 for violent crime, incivilities and street crime, burglary and theft, vandalism and robbery respectively. However, the R 2 which represents the generalisation of the impact of neighbourhood crime on housing investment was 44 % and aggregate P-value was 0.000. Using the Hosmer and Lemeshow (H-L) test of goodness of fit, the model had approximately 89% predictive probability which is considered excellent. This indicates that the alternative hypothesis is upheld that residential neighbourhood crime is capable of impacting on residential property value. The policy implication of this result is that no effort should be spared in combating residential neighbourhood crime in order to boost and encourage housing investment.

Classification Modelling for the Impact of Historical Site on Residential Property Rental Value in Osogbo, Nigeria

“…Findings from the study revealed that property value in the gated community is higher than that of non-gated community. Olajide and Lizam (2016) assessed the impact of residential neighbourhood crime on residential property value. Findings from the study revealed that neighbourhood crime have a negative impact on residential property value.…”

Three attributes determining land values in three selected housing estates in Uyo, Nigeria

“…The work extends the neighborhood factors in Aliu (2023) beyond security, which means that other factors apart from security have tendencies to negatively affect residential property values and create unscheduled and unintended residential mobility. Moreover, this work and others surveyed are unanimous that security determines the land value, property value, or rent, as seen in Olajide and Lizam (2016), Nigeria (Bamiteko and Adebiyi, 2020), and South Africa (Odubiyi et al, 2019). However, it appears that natural disasters like flooding can attenuate the land value, despite the three attributes considered in his paper.…”

An examination of the influence of urban violence on rental value of residential property in Kaduna metropolis

“…This finding is in consonance with the study of Aliyu et al (2011) and Uroko (2018) that opined that ethno-religious crisis had negative impact on property value. In addition, Frischtak and Mandel (2012), Olajide and Lizam (2016), Effiong (2018), Yoade and Olatunji (2018) among others also opined that crime have negative effect on property values. However, there is a slight divergent from the current study’s finding in the area of types of violence identified in the study area which are political, ethnic, religious, kidnapping and terrorism.…”

“…Urban violence can also be in form of rape, robbery, arson and shooting. A significant cause of urban violence in recent times is terrorism from activities of organized terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda and Islamic State of Iraq and Syria' (ISIS), to religious wars, tribal clashes and political upheavals in many parts of the world (Isaac, 1994; Olajide and Lizram, 2016). In Nigeria particularly, this includes the Boko Haram insurgency and the Fulani herdsmen crises.…”