Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity

Liang, Xin‐Zhong; Wu, You; Chambers, Robert G.; Schmoldt, Daniel L.; Gao, Wei; Liu, Chaoshun; Liu, Yanan; Sun, Chao; Kennedy, Jennifer A.

doi:10.1073/pnas.1615922114

Cited by 168 publications

(138 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…While the rate of increase in crop yields in much of the world has been more modest than observed for the USA (Ray et al 2013), the introduction of hybrids and improved genetics and agronomic practices has driven a >3-fold increase in maize yields over the past 60 yr in the USA, from~53 bushels per acre (3328 kg/ha) in the 1956 to~170 bushels per acre (10,676 kg/ha) in 2016 (USDA NASS 2017; Appendix S1). A number of changes in the climate system will, however, conspire to work against extrapolating these historic increases in grain yields into the future (Lobell and Field 2007, Zipper et al 2016, Liang et al 2017, Angel et al 2018. Indeed, contemporary record maize yields in the United States are more than twice this value (Agfax 2016, https:// agfax.com/2016/12/20/georgia-farmer-at-top-of-500-bushel-national-corn-yield-contest-dtn/), and predictions based on the theoretical limits to net primary production would be higher still (DeLucia et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are we approaching a water ceiling to maize yields in the United States?

et al. 2019

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While annual precipitation in much of the US Corn Belt is likely to remain constant, atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD), the driver of crop water loss (evapotranspiration; ET), is projected to increase from~2.2 kPa today to~2.7 kPa by mid-century primarily due to the temperature increase. Without irrigation, it has been hypothesized that the increase in VPD will create a ceiling to future increases in maize yields. We calculated current and future growing season ET based on biomass, water use efficiency, and the amount of yield these levels of ET would support for maize production in the Midwest USA. We assumed that the production of more grain will necessitate a proportional increase in the production of biomass, with a corresponding increase in ET. Here we show that as VPD increases, maintaining current maize yields (2013-2016) will require a large expansion of irrigation, greater than threefold, in areas currently supported by rain. The average predicted yield for the region of 244 AE 4 bushels/acre (15,316 AE 251 kg/ha) projected for 2050, assuming yield increases observed for the past 60 yr continue, would not be possible with projected increases in VPD, creating a water ceiling to maize yields. Substantial increases in maize yields and the production of high yielding grasses for bioenergy will require developing cultivars with greater water use efficiency, a trait that has not been a priority for breeders in the past.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are we approaching a water ceiling to maize yields in the United States?

et al. 2019

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“…Field-trials of U.S. wheat varieties have revealed that newer seed varieties exhibit less resistance to yield reduction from extreme spring-time temperatures (Tack, Barkley, & Nalley, 2014, 2015. Liang et al (2017) inferred that the negative climate effects would outweigh the net technological gains in U.S. agriculture to decrease its total factor productivity (TFP) to 1980 levels before the year 2050. Ortiz-Bobea, Knippenberg, and Chambers (2018) found that the agricultural TFP of the Midwestern U.S. region has become more sensitive to hotter temperatures since the 1980s.…”

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confidence: 99%

Evidence of climate change impacts on crop comparative advantage and land use

Arora

Feng

Anderson³

et al. 2020

Agricultural Economics

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Relative agricultural productivity shocks emerging from climate change will alter regional cropland use. Land allocations are sensitive to crop profits that in turn depend on yield effects induced by changes in climate and technology. We develop and apply an integrated framework to assess the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity and land use for the U.S. Northern Great Plains. Crop‐specific yield–weather models reveal crop comparative advantage due to differential yield impacts of weather across the region's major crops, that is, alfalfa, wheat, soybeans, and maize. We define crop profits as a function of the weather‐driven yields, which are then used to model land use allocation decisions. This ultimately allows us to simulate the impact of climate change under the RCP4.5 emissions scenario on land allocated to the region's major crops as well as to grass/pasture. Upon removing the trends effects in yields, climate change is projected to lower yields by 33–64% over 2031–2055 relative to 1981–2005, with soybean being the least and alfalfa the most affected crops. Yield projections applied to the land use model at present‐day input costs and output prices reveals that Dakotas’ grass acreage will increase by up to 23%, displacing croplands. Wheat acreage is expected to increase by up to 54% in select southeastern counties of North Dakota and South Dakota, where maize/soy acreage had increased by up to 58% during 1995–2016.

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“…Shifts in climatic conditions in the Midwest, such as changes in extreme precipitation events at important stages in crop development, pose risks of significant damages to crop productivity and environmental sustainability . On an annual basis, extreme rain events can delay planting or cause waterlogging that reduces the efficiency or TFP of agriculture . Extreme rains are also implicated in degradation of soil resources through erosion, which reduces the long‐term productive capacity of agricultural lands .…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Extreme precipitation is defined as an event with more than 4 inches (101.6 mm) of rain in a 24‐hour period . Such events can reduce the efficiency or total factor productivity (TFP) of agriculture . For example, in the early growing season, extreme precipitation events can delay planting and increase farmers’ economic risks.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(6) Such events can reduce the efficiency or total factor productivity (TFP) of agriculture. (7) For example, in the early growing season, extreme precipitation events can delay planting and increase farmers' economic risks. Before the crop canopy is established, extreme precipitation events increase the risk of soil erosion (8,9) and exacerbate negative off-farm environmental impacts, such as an increase in the transportation of nitrogen, phosphorus, and other nutrients into groundwater, streams, and lakes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Spatially Representing Vulnerability to Extreme Rain Events Using Midwestern Farmers’ Objective and Perceived Attributes of Adaptive Capacity

Gardezi

Arbuckle

2017

Risk Analysis

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Potential climate-change-related impacts to agriculture in the upper Midwest pose serious economic and ecological risks to the U.S. and the global economy. On a local level, farmers are at the forefront of responding to the impacts of climate change. Hence, it is important to understand how farmers and their farm operations may be more or less vulnerable to changes in the climate. A vulnerability index is a tool commonly used by researchers and practitioners to represent the geographical distribution of vulnerability in response to global change. Most vulnerability assessments measure objective adaptive capacity using secondary data collected by governmental agencies. However, other scholarship on human behavior has noted that sociocultural and cognitive factors, such as risk perceptions and perceived capacity, are consequential for modulating people's actual vulnerability. Thus, traditional assessments can potentially overlook people's subjective perceptions of changes in climate and extreme weather events and the extent to which people feel prepared to take necessary steps to cope with and respond to the negative effects of climate change. This article addresses this knowledge gap by: (1) incorporating perceived adaptive capacity into a vulnerability assessment; (2) using spatial smoothing to aggregate individual-level vulnerabilities to the county level; and (3) evaluating the relationships among different dimensions of adaptive capacity to examine whether perceived capacity should be integrated into vulnerability assessments. The result suggests that vulnerability assessments that rely only on objective measures might miss important sociocognitive dimensions of capacity. Vulnerability indices and maps presented in this article can inform engagement strategies for improving environmental sustainability in the region.

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Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity

Cited by 168 publications

References 40 publications

Are we approaching a water ceiling to maize yields in the United States?

Are we approaching a water ceiling to maize yields in the United States?

Evidence of climate change impacts on crop comparative advantage and land use

Spatially Representing Vulnerability to Extreme Rain Events Using Midwestern Farmers’ Objective and Perceived Attributes of Adaptive Capacity

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