Determined to stop? Longitudinal analysis of the desire to have no more children in rural Mozambique

Abstract

Classic demographic theories conceptualize desired family size as a fixed goal that guides fertility intentions over the childbearing years. However, a growing body of research shows that fertility plans, even nominally long-term plans for completed childbearing, change in response to short-term conditions. Because of data limitations, much of this research has focused on low-fertility contexts, but short-term conditions are likely to be even more important in high-fertility contexts. This paper uses three waves of survey data collected in rural Mozambique to study predictors of the desire to stop childbearing in a context of relatively high fertility and high individual and social instability. We employ fixed-effects models to assess how desires to stop childbearing are shaped by demographic factors, household economic conditions, and health status, controlling for constant individual characteristics. Results show fluctuation in stopping desires and demonstrate meaningful associations between individual and household conditions and fertility goals.

Spacing, Stopping, or Postponing? Fertility Desires in a Sub-Saharan Setting

“…Overall, our findings confirm that the postponement model is a reasonable representation of individual outlooks: some women who express the desire to delay a birth are motivated by goals other than a fixed desired interval length, and the boundaries between desires to delay and desires to stop are fluid. More generally, this work adds to the growing body of evidence on the dynamic nature of fertility preferences (e.g., Hayford and Agadjanian 2017;Iacovou and Tavares 2011;Rackin and Bachrach 2016;Sennott and Yeatman 2012;Trinitapoli and Yeatman 2018;Yeatman et al 2013) These analyses show that the patterns associated with a postponement orientation can be identified using standard demographic survey questions on fertility desires, although the identification is easier when these questions are supplemented by additional questions about motivations or administered longitudinally.…”

Conceptualizing Childbearing Ambivalence: A Social and Dynamic Perspective

“…As ends‐in‐view, they are hypotheses about future conditions that may or may not come about and are subject to revision through deliberation” (p. 339). Indeed, research from a variety of contexts has shown that fertility preferences and intentions evolve over time and with the accumulation of experience (Bankole & Westoff, ; Hayford & Agadjanian, ; Kodzi, Casterline, & Aglobitse, ; Sennott & Yeatman, ; Yeatman, Sennott, & Culpepper, ). Thus, for example, even if a woman reports that she would like to avoid having a child in the near term, if her circumstances change, her fertility preferences may also change.…”

Gravidity, contraceptive use and acceptability of a proposed three-baby policy in a municipality of Ghana. 

“…Traditionally, childbearing and the desire for more children is common among African woman. 24 Even though majority of the participants were aware of the proposed 'three-baby' policy, few were willing to limit their children to three. Participants with no formal education could be more susceptible to the practice of giving more births as they showed the highest gravidity (Mean ± SD = 6.0±1.7).…”