Determination of a Suitable Renewable Energy Source for Mini-Grid Business: A Risk-Based Multicriteria Approach

Abstract

The mini-grid proliferation has helped to improve the current state of electricity supply in several rural areas in developing countries. This is due to the innovations in renewable energy technologies. The impact of this development is the establishment of mini-grid business. There is a need for mini-grid business owners to identify the most suitable energy source for a particular area. To achieve this, proper analysis of risks that impact mini-grid business operations is required for optimal energy source selection. The current study addresses this problem by proposing a conceptual framework that considered risk factors. The conceptual framework analysed scenarios where expected risk values are specified and not specified by decision-makers. This was achieved using fuzzy axiomatic design (FAD), intuitionistic entropy method, and TOPSIS (Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution) methods. The TOPSIS and FAD results were combined using WASPAS (weighted aggregated sum product assessment) method. The proposed conceptual framework was applied in sub-Sahara Africa, Lagos, Nigeria. During the application of the proposed framework, five renewable energy sources and thirteen types of risks were considered. Information from four decision-makers was used to demonstrate the applicability of the framework. The results obtained showed that unpredictable electricity demand and construction completion risks were identified as the least and most important risks for the selection of renewable energy sources for mini-grid, respectively. The FAD and TOPSIS methods identified wind and biomass energy as the best-ranked energy source for mini-grid business, respectively. The WASPAS method and the FAD results were the same.

Off‐grid hybrid renewable energy system for rural healthcare centers: A case study in Nigeria

“…Hence, the inability of operators and stakeholders to replicate the successes in other viable mini-grid projects is a source of concern for decision makers. 28,29 On the contrary, the replicability of Bio-gas plant in sub-Saharan Africa experienced challenges. 28 For example, over 35 000 biogas plants were constructed in Nepal between 1992 and 1998.…”

“…The scheme also made sure the users received financial incentives. 28,29 On the contrary, the replicability of Bio-gas plant in sub-Saharan Africa experienced challenges. Similarly, some factors responsible for sustainability of HRES for RHC applications include inadequate policies and F I G U R E 5 Results of NPC and LCOE across the locations for the optimal system configuration F I G U R E 6 Energy production and excess energy across the locations for the optimal system configuration regulatory framework, wrong business model, quality control, lack maintenance culture etc.…”

Selection of a Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems for a Low-Income Household

“…The governing principle behind TOPSIS allows that the best alternative should have the least distance from the ideal solution and the longest from the negative-ideal solution. Detailed analysis of the TOPSIS method is available in the literature [18,26,27,54]; however, the basic steps are presented as follow:…”

Selection of an Electricity Tariff Plan for Mini-Grid Business Models: an Intuitionistic Fuzzy Axiomatic Design Approach

“…Apart from this suggestion, other authors have documented useful insights on micro-grid management [4][5][6][7][8][9]20]. For instance, Chauhan et al [8] developed a novel demand-side management framework.…”

“…On the other hand, Chauhan et al [9] analysed similar system using a real-time price-based approach. Ighravwe and Babatunde [20] used a risk-based approach to select renewable energy system for remote communities. Chauhan and Chauhan [6] in another study proposed a procedure coordinated control of a mini-grid system.…”