Determinants of temporal coherence in the satellite‐derived 1987–1994 ice breakup dates of lakes on the Laurentian Shield

Wynne, Randolph H.; Magnuson, John J.; Clayton, Murray K.; Lillesand, T. M.; Rodman, Daniel C.

doi:10.4319/lo.1996.41.5.0832

Cited by 49 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 13 publications

(23 reference statements)

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“…However, most lakes in northern New England existed as natural lakes prior to being dammed for commercial activities (typically mills on outlet streams and log driving). Wynne et al (1996), in their study of Canadian and American lakes, found a lack of importance of any measures of lake morphometry, including depth and surface area, on the temporal coherence of ice-out dates.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical changes in lake ice‐out dates as indicators of climate change in New England, 1850–2000

Hodgkins,

James,

Huntington

2002

Intl Journal of Climatology

126

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Various studies have shown that changes over time in spring ice-out dates can be used as indicators of climate change. Ice-out dates from 29 lakes in New England (USA) with 64 to 163 years of record were assembled and analysed for this study. Ice-out dates have become significantly earlier in New England since the 1800s. Changes in ice-out dates between 1850 and 2000 were 9 days and 16 days in the northern/mountainous and southern regions of New England respectively. The changes in the ice-out data over time were very consistent within each of the two regions of New England, and more consistent than four air-temperature records in each region. The ice-out dates of the two regions had a different response to changes in air temperature. The inferred late winter-early spring air-temperature warming in both regions of New England since 1850, based on linear regression analysis, was about 1.5°C. Published in

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical changes in lake ice‐out dates as indicators of climate change in New England, 1850–2000

Hodgkins,

James,

Huntington

2002

Intl Journal of Climatology

126

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“…The recent trends toward earlier break-up dates were spatially coherent in lakes across the Laurentian Shield, although coherence was highest for lakes with similar ice-off dates, and for lakes located at similar latitudes [109]. For example, the phenology of thawing was highly coherent among southern Wisconsin and south Dakotan lakes because these lakes integrated more or less the same seasonal weather.…”

Section: Large-scale Synchronisations: the Role Of The Nao And The Ensomentioning

confidence: 94%

“…As a consequence, the Great Lakes experienced one of the least extensive ice covers of the 20 th Century in the extreme El Niño years of 1997 and 1998 [107]. Overall, freeze-up and break-up dates from 62 lakes and rivers throughout the Northern Hemisphere (North America, Europe, Asia) were found to be related to the ENSO phenomenon [108].The recent trends toward earlier break-up dates were spatially coherent in lakes across the Laurentian Shield, although coherence was highest for lakes with similar ice-off dates, and for lakes located at similar latitudes [109]. For example, the phenology of thawing was highly coherent among southern Wisconsin and south Dakotan lakes because these lakes integrated more or less the same seasonal weather.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Climate Warming, North Atlantic Oscillation, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Thermal Conditions and Plankton Dynamics in Northern Hemispheric Lakes

Gerten

Adrian

2002

The Scientific World JOURNAL

100

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Impacts of climate warming on freshwater ecosystems have been documented recently for a variety of sites around the globe. Here we provide a review of studies that report long-term (multidecadal) effects of warming trends on thermal properties and plankton dynamics in northern hemispheric lakes. We show that higher lake temperatures, shorter periods with ice cover, and shorter stagnation periods were common trends for lakes across the hemisphere in response to the warmer conditions. Only for shallow dimictic lakes was it observed that deepwater temperatures decreased. Moreover, it became evident that phytoplankton dynamics and primary productivity altered in conjunction with changes in lake physics. Algal spring blooms developed early and were more pronounced in several European lakes after mild winters with short ice cover periods, and primary productivity increased in North American lakes. Effects of elevated temperatures on zooplankton communities were seen in an early development of various species and groups, as is documented for cladocerans, copepods, and rotifers in European lakes. Furthermore, thermophile species reached higher abundance in warmer years.Obviously, the nature of responses is species specific, and depends on the detailed seasonal patterning of warming. Complex responses such as effects propagating across trophic levels are likely, indicating that observed climateecosystem relationships are not generally applicable. Nonetheless, the picture emerges that climate-driven changes in freshwater ecosystems may be synchronised to a certain extent among lakes even over great distances if climatic influences are not masked by anthropogenic impacts or differences in lake morphology. Macro-scale climatic fluctuations -such as the North Atlantic Oscillation or the El Niño-Southern Oscillation -were identified as the most important candidates responsible for such coherence, with the former predominating in Europe and the latter in North America. We emphasise, however, that the driving mechanisms and the future behaviour of these oscillations are Gerten and Adrian: Climate Warming on Freshwater Ecosystems TheScientificWorldJOURNAL (2002) 2, 586-606 587 rather uncertain, which complicates extrapolation of observed effects into the future. Thus, it is necessary to quantify the most important climate-ecosystem relationships in models of appropriate complexity. Such models will help elucidate the multiple pathways climate affects freshwater ecosystems, and will indicate possible adverse effects of a warmer future climate.KEY WORDS: climate change, freshwater ecosystems, North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, lake ice, long-term, phytoplankton, zooplankton, large-scale synchronization DOMAINS: freshwater systems, ecosystems and communities, atmospheric systems, ecosystems management INTRODUCTIONWeather and climate regulate physical, chemical, and biological processes in freshwater ecosystems at all time scales [1]. The physical features of lakes are most directly influenced by climate,...

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“…A number of studies have used long-term records of ice-out timing as integrative proxies for changes in spring temperatures, which often surpass existing weather station records (Magnuson et al 2000) or provide more extensive spatial coverage in remote regions (Liston and Hall 1995;Duguay et al 2006). With the interest in using ice-out timing as a proxy for regional temperature change comes the need to refine our understanding of inter-annual and inter-lake variability (Wynne et al 1996). Though ice cover loss in lakes is driven primarily by air temperature, the actual rate of ice decay and development of ice-free conditions can vary greatly from lake to lake within a region depending on a number of factors, particularly lake morphometry and landscape setting (Gao and Stefan 1999;Williams et al 2004;Brown and Duguay 2010).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent lake ice‐out phenology within and among lake districts of Alaska, U.S.A

Arp

Jones

Grosse

2013

Limnology & Oceanography

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The timing of ice-out in high latitudes is a fundamental threshold for lake ecosystems and an indicator of climate change. In lake-rich regions, the loss of ice cover also plays a key role in landscape and climatic processes. Thus, there is a need to understand lake ice phenology at multiple scales. In this study, we observed ice-out timing on 55 large lakes in 11 lake districts across Alaska from 2007 to 2012 using satellite imagery. Sensor networks in two lake districts validated satellite observations and provided comparison with smaller lakes. Over this 6 yr period, the mean lake ice-out for all lakes was 27 May and ranged from 07 May in Kenai to 06 July in Arctic Coastal Plain lake districts with relatively low inter-annual variability. Approximately 80% of the variation in iceout timing was explained by the date of 0uC air temperature isotherm and lake area. Shoreline irregularity, watershed area, and river connectivity explained additional variation in some districts. Coherence in ice-out timing within the lakes of each district was consistently strong over this 6 yr period, ranging from r-values of 0.5 to 0.9. Inter-district analysis of coherence also showed synchronous ice-out patterns with the exception of the two arctic coastal districts where ice-out occurs later (June-July) and climatology is sea-ice influenced. These patterns of lake ice phenology provide a spatially extensive baseline describing short-term temporal variability, which will help decipher longer term trends in ice phenology and aid in representing the role of lake ice in land and climate models in northern landscapes.Observing lake-rich landscapes during the spring or early summer shows a rapidly evolving patchwork of white ice shifting to dark open water. The implication of landscapescale lake ice phenology is an abrupt change in energy balance, evaporation, and many other ecosystem responses (Duguay et al. 2003;Brown and Duguay 2010; Prowse et al. 2011c). The timing and duration of ice cover loss of a lake directly affects summer regimes of water temperature and stratification, water balance, and productivity (Williams et al. 2004;Bengtsson 2011;Prowse et al. 2011a). Considering the variation in timing of ice-out across multiple lakes within a physiographic region, such as a lake district, may also provide broader insights into how these landscapes function (Brown and Duguay 2010). Regional coherence or synchrony of ice-out timing among many lakes within a district over a series of years serves to elucidate responses to varying weather patterns and can facilitate better analysis of longterm climate change (Magnuson et al. 1990;Benson et al. 2012). The degree of coherence in ice-out can also be compared among varying lake districts, which may provide further insight into other elements of landscape phenology, such as algal blooms, riparian green-up, and waterbird arrival (Prowse et al. 2011a;Weyhenmeyer et al. 2011).The timing of lake and river ice-out is of increasing interest as a proxy indicator of long-term changes in c...

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Determinants of temporal coherence in the satellite‐derived 1987–1994 ice breakup dates of lakes on the Laurentian Shield

Cited by 49 publications

References 13 publications

Historical changes in lake ice‐out dates as indicators of climate change in New England, 1850–2000

Historical changes in lake ice‐out dates as indicators of climate change in New England, 1850–2000

Effects of Climate Warming, North Atlantic Oscillation, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Thermal Conditions and Plankton Dynamics in Northern Hemispheric Lakes

Recent lake ice‐out phenology within and among lake districts of Alaska, U.S.A

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