Freeze and breakup dates of ice on lakes and rivers provide consistent evidence of later freezing and earlier breakup around the Northern Hemisphere from 1846 to 1995. Over these 150 years, changes in freeze dates averaged 5.8 days per 100 years later, and changes in breakup dates averaged 6.5 days per 100 years earlier; these translate to increasing air temperatures of about 1.2 degrees C per 100 years. Interannual variability in both freeze and breakup dates has increased since 1950. A few longer time series reveal reduced ice cover (a warming trend) beginning as early as the 16th century, with increasing rates of change after about 1850.

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Fish assemblage structure, and factors and mechanisms appearing important in the ecological maintence of these structures, were examined for 18 small lakes in northern Wisconsin during summer and winter. The study was focused around the following questions. Are there discrete, repeatable groups of fish assemblages? If so, are they temporally stable? What are the relations between fish assemblage structure and habitat complexity, physical disturbance, biotic interactions and the insular nature of small lakes? A comparative approach was used to generate hypotheses and propose explanations concerning the roles of these factors in structuring the assemblages. Multivariate classification, ordination, and discriminant analyses helped discern two assemblage types: Umbra—cyprinid and centrarchid—Esox. Each had a distinctive species composition and seasonal change in composition. Environmental characteristic of the lakes occupied by each assemblage type also differed consistently. The type of assemblage present in a lake appeared related to oxygen concentrations in winter, interacting with the availability of refuges from either a severe physical environment (low oxygen during winter) or from large pisvivores. Centrarchid—Esox assemblages occurred in lakes with high winter oxygen levels, and also in lakes with low oxygen if a stream or connecting lake could provide a refuge from these conditions in winter. When no refuge was present, low winter oxygen lakes lacked piscivorous fishes, but contained Umbra—cyprinid assemblages. The relationships between species richness in summer and environmental factors were generally similar for the two assemblage types, but the relative importance of individual factors differed. In winter, richness relationships in centrarchid—Esox assemblages for most environmental factors were reversed from those of summer. No significant seasonal change occurred in the Umbra—cyprinid assemblages. Habitat complexity factors, particulary vegetation diversity, were significantly related to summer species richness in both assemblage types. Lake area was also related to summer richness for both types, but the slope of the species—area regression was much steeper for Umbra—cypinid assemblages than for those in centrarchid—Esox lakes. Species richness relationships with winter oxygen concentration were negative in both seasons in Umbra—cyprinid lakes, but the relationship was positive for centrarchid—Esox assemblages in winter. A measure of lake connectedness was related to summer richness in centrarchid—Esox lakes. These patterns suggest that centrarchid—Esox assemblages are in ecological equilibrium but that a disturbance—induced disequilibrium occurs in Umbra—cyprinid assemblages.

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In population ecology, there has been a fundamental controversy about the relative importance of competition-driven (densitydependent) population regulation vs. abiotic influences such as temperature and precipitation. The same issue arises at the community level; are population sizes driven primarily by changes in the abundances of cooccurring competitors (i.e., compensatory dynamics), or do most species have a common response to environmental factors? Competitive interactions have had a central place in ecological theory, dating back to Gleason, Volterra, Hutchison and MacArthur, and, more recently, Hubbell's influential unified neutral theory of biodiversity and biogeography. If competitive interactions are important in driving year-to-year fluctuations in abundance, then changes in the abundance of one species should generally be accompanied by compensatory changes in the abundances of others. Thus, one necessary consequence of strong compensatory forces is that, on average, species within communities will covary negatively. Here we use measures of community covariance to assess the prevalence of negative covariance in 41 natural communities comprising different taxa at a range of spatial scales. We found that species in natural communities tended to covary positively rather than negatively, the opposite of what would be expected if compensatory dynamics were important. These findings suggest that abiotic factors such as temperature and precipitation are more important than competitive interactions in driving year-to-year fluctuations in species abundance within communities.biological interactions ͉ community dynamics ͉ negative covariance ͉ neutral models ͉ zero-sum

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The global reach of human activities affects all natural ecosystems, so that the environment is best viewed as a social–ecological system. Consequently, a more integrative approach to environmental science, one that bridges the biophysical and social domains, is sorely needed. Although models and frameworks for social–ecological systems exist, few are explicitly designed to guide a long‐term interdisciplinary research program. Here, we present an iterative framework, “Press–Pulse Dynamics” (PPD), that integrates the biophysical and social sciences through an understanding of how human behaviors affect “press” and “pulse” dynamics and ecosystem processes. Such dynamics and processes, in turn, influence ecosystem services –thereby altering human behaviors and initiating feedbacks that impact the original dynamics and processes. We believe that research guided by the PPD framework will lead to a more thorough understanding of social–ecological systems and generate the knowledge needed to address pervasive environmental problems.

1. Temporal coherence between pairs of lakes over 7 years was measured for thirty-seven limnological variables in seven lakes at the North Temperate Lakes Long Term Ecological Research site in Northern Wisconsin. This analysis tested, first, whether lakes more similar in exposure to the atmosphere were more temporally coherent than lakes which differed more in exposure and, second, whether temporal coherence in lakes progressively decreased from variables more directly influenced by climatic factors such as thermal and hydrologie properties, lo those chemical and biological properties which may be less directly influenced by climatic factors.2. The lakes were a heterogeneous set in respect to exposure to climatic factors as estimated by the ratio of 'lake area/mean depth' and by other morphometric features, and they also differed in their position in the landscape, fertility and fish assemblages. Limnological variables formed a progression from those expected to respond directly to climatic factors to those which would not. They ranged from water level and temperatures to chemical variables such as pH, calcium concentrations and total dissolved phosphorus to biological variables such as chlorophyll concentrations, invertebrate and fish abundances.3. Coherence was estimated by the correlation between lake pairs for each of the different variables. The mean correlation and the percentage of strong correlations were calculated for each lake pair across all variables, and for each variable across all lake pairs, and both measures of coherence gave similar answers to the questions posed above.4. Temporal coherence between lakes was higher for lakes similar in their exposure to climatic factors; mean correlation (r) being -f-0.3 to +0,7 for these lakes and <-F0.3 for lakes not similar in exposure. None of the lake pairs had high coherence across all variables.5. Temporal coherence between lakes was greater for limnological variables directly influenced by climatic factors than for variables either indirectly affected by climate or complexly influenced by other types of factors. Water-level variables had a coherence near 1, r=0.9. All biological variables had low coherence, some near r=0.0. Chemical variables more likely to be influenced directly by climatic factors appeared to be more coherent than those more influenced by hydrology or biology. Most silica and phosphorus variables had coherences less than r=0.15.6. Coherence was not as strongly related to similarity in landscape position as it was to similarity in exposure to climatic factors, and was not jelated to the proximity of the lake pairs or to their similarity in fertility. 7. A conceptual model was presented to explain how climatic signals are filtered by the lake's exposure to climatic factors and by terrestrially mediated and in-lakc processes to reduce the coherence of lake pairs owing to time lags, frequency shifts and complex interference pattems.8. Coherence is an important property to evaluate because it influences how broadly we can extrapolate resul...