Determinants of dried fruit products sector export: A gravity model for Türkiye

Abstract

Agriculture contributes to economic development as well as meeting the basic nutritional needs of a society. The dried fruits and dried fruit products industry is one of the leading industries contributing to the national economy and forms a significant part of the agricultural industry. This study investigates the determinants of Türkiye's exports of dried fruits and dried fruit products using the gravity model. In this context, the data for the 2005-2021 period for 78 countries importing dried fruits and dried fruit products from Türkiye were analyzed using the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimator (PPML). The analysis revealed that the GDP of Türkiye and the importing country, nominal exchange rate, EU membership of the importing country, the availability of a free trade agreement with the importing country and the average surface temperature changes, positively impact Türkiye's exports of dried fruits and dried fruit products. Whereas the distance between countries, which is a good indicator for transportation costs, negatively affects Türkiye's exports of dried fruits and dried fruit products. The results of the analyses show that exports of dried fruits and products exhibit similar results to that of exports of agricultural products. Additionally, the gravity model for exports of dried fruits and dried fruit products is valid for Türkiye.