Determinants of Developing Symptomatic Disease in Ethiopian COVID-19 Patients

Leulseged, Tigist Workneh; Alemahu, Degu G.; Hassen, Ishmael S.; Maru, Endalkachew H.; Zewde, Wuletaw C.; Chamesew, Nigat W.; Yegile, Kalkidan T.; Abebe, Daniel S.; Abdi, Firaol M.; Menyelshewa, Etsegenet Y.; Gerbi, Tegenu G.; Hagos, Helen T.

doi:10.1101/2020.10.09.20209734

Cited by 9 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Age is implicated to be associated with severe disease and outcome in different studies conducted in Chine, United states and Europe [ 24 – 27 ]. Similar finding is also reported from studies conducted in our country [ 28 , 29 ]. The reasons behind could be the increased possibility of weaker immune defense mechanism and co-morbid illnesses making older individuals prone to different illnesses with severe progression and worst outcome.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Laboratory biomarkers of COVID-19 disease severity and outcome: Findings from a developing country

et al. 2021

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Aim To identify laboratory biomarkers that predict disease severity and outcome among COVID-19 patients admitted to the Millennium COVID-19 Care Center in Ethiopia. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted among 429 COVID-19 patients who were on follow up from July to October 2020. Data was described using frequency tables. Robust Poisson regression model was used to identify predictors of COVID-19 severity where adjusted relative risk (ARR), P-value and 95 CI for ARR were used to test significance. Binary Logistic regression model was used to assess the presence of statistically significant association between the explanatory variables and COVID-19 outcome where adjusted odds ratio (AOR), P-value and 95%CI for AOR were used for testing significance. Results Among the 429 patients studied, 182 (42.4%) had Severe disease at admission and the rest 247 (57.6%) had Non-severe disease. Regarding disease outcome, 45 (10.5%) died and 384 (89.5%) were discharged alive. Age group (ARR = 1.779, 95%CI = 1.405–2.252, p-value <0.0001), Neutrophil to Lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (ARR = 4.769, 95%CI = 2.419–9.402 p-value <0.0001), Serum glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase (SGOT) (ARR = 1.358, 95%CI = 1.109–1.662 p-value = 0.003), Sodium (ARR = 1.321, 95%CI = 1.091–1.600 p-value = 0.004) and Potassium (ARR = 1.269, 95%CI = 1.059–1.521 p-value = 0.010) were found to be significant predictors of COVID-19 severity. The following factors were significantly associated with COVID-19 outcome; age group (AOR = 2.767, 95%CI = 1.099–6.067, p-value = 0.031), white blood cell count (WBC) (AOR = 4.253, 95%CI = 1.918–9.429, p-value = 0.0001) and sodium level (AOR = 3.435, 95%CI = 1.439–8.198, p-value = 0.005). Conclusions Assessing and monitoring the laboratory markers of WBC, NLR, SGOT, sodium and potassium levels at the earliest stage of the disease could have a considerable role in halting disease progression and death.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Laboratory biomarkers of COVID-19 disease severity and outcome: Findings from a developing country

et al. 2021

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“…Age is implicated to be associated with severe disease and outcome in different studies conducted globally (23-26). Similar finding is also reported from studies conducted in our country (27, 28). The reasons behind could be the increased possibility of weaker immune defense mechanism and co-morbid illnesses making older individuals prone to different illnesses with severe progression and worst outcome.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Laboratory Biomarkers of COVID-19 Disease Severity and Outcome: Findings from a Developing Country

Leulseged

Hassen

Ayele

et al. 2021

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AimTo identify laboratory biomarkers that predict disease severity and outcome among COVID-19 patients admitted to the Millennium COVID-19 Care Center in Ethiopia.MethodsA retrospective cohort study was conducted among 429 RT-PCR confirmed COVID- 19 patients who were on follow up from July to October 2020 and with complete clinical and laboratory data. Data was described using frequency tables. Robust Poisson regression model was used to identify predictors of COVID-19 disease severity where adjusted relative risk (RR), P-value and 95% CI for RR were used to test significance and interpretation of results. Binary Logistic regression model was used to assess the presence of statistically significant association between the explanatory variables and COVID-19 disease outcome where adjusted odds ratio, P- value and 95% CI for adjusted odds ratio were used for testing significance and interpretation of resultsResultsAmong the 429 patients studied, 182 (42.4%) had Severe disease at admission and the rest 247 (57.6%) had Non-severe disease (15.6% mild and 42.0% moderate). Regarding disease outcome, 45 (10.5%) died and 384 (89.5%) were discharged alive. Age group (ARR= 1.779, 95% CI= 1.405- 2.252, p-value < 0.0001), Neutrophil to Lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (ARR= 4.769, 95% CI= 2.419 - 9.402 p-value <0.0001), Serum glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase (SGOT) (ARR= 1.358, 95% CI= 1.109- 1.662 p-value=0.003), Sodium (ARR= 1.321, 95% CI= 1.091- 1.600 p-value=0.004) and Potassium (ARR= 1.269, 95% CI= 1.059-1.521 p-value=0.010) were found to be significant predictors of COVID-19 disease severity.The following factors were significantly associated with COVID-19 disease outcome; age group (AOR= 2.767, 95% CI= 1.099 - 6.067, p-value=0.031), white blood cell count (AOR= 4.253, 95% CI= 1.918 - 9.429, p-value=0.0001) and sodium level (AOR= 3.435, 95% CI= 1.439, 8.198, p-value=0.005).ConclusionsThe laboratory markers of NLR of above three, raised SGOT and deranged sodium and potassium levels (both hypo- and hyper-states) were found to be significant predictors of developing severe COVID-19 disease. In addition, deranged values of white blood cell count and sodium levels were significantly associated with worse outcome of the disease. Therefore, assessing and monitoring these laboratory markers at the earliest stage of the disease could have a considerable impact in halting disease progression and death.

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“…The effect of concomitant comorbid illness on disease progression is also reported to be the same in other studies 27-30 . Patients with diabetes mellitus were also found to increased likelihood of having death outcome, developing symptomatic disease and more severe disease category in studies conducted in our center 23,24,31 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 63%

Characteristics and outcome profile of Hospitalized African COVID-19 patients: The Ethiopian Context

Leulseged

et al. 2020

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BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic seems to have a different picture in Africa; the first case was identified in the continent after it has already caused a significant loss to the rest of the world and the reported number of cases and mortality rate has been low. Understanding the characteristics and outcome of the pandemicin the African setup is therefore crucial.AimTo assess the characteristics and outcome of COVID-19 patients and to identify determinants of the disease outcome among patients admitted to Millennium COVID-19 Care Center in Ethiopia.MethodsA prospective cohort study was conducted among 1345 consecutively admitted RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 patients from July to September, 2020. Frequency tables, KM plots, median survival times and Log-rank test were used to describe the data and compare survival distribution between groups. Cox proportional hazard survival model was used to identify determinants of time to clinical improvement and the independent variables, where adjusted hazard ratio, P-value and 95% CI for adjusted hazard ratio were used for testing significance and interpretation of results. Binary logistic regression model was used to assess the presence of a statistically significant association between disease outcome and the independent variables, where adjusted odds ratio, P-value and 95% CI for adjusted odds ratio were used for testing significance and interpretation of resultsResultsAmong the study population, 71 (5.3%) died, 72 (5.4%) were transferred and the rest 1202 (89.4%) were clinically improved. The median time to clinical improvement was 14 days. On the multivariable Cox proportional hazard model; temperature (AHR= 1.135, 95% CI= 1.011, 1.274, p-value=0.032), COVID-19 severity (AHR= 0.660, 95% CI= 0.501, 0.869, p-value=0.003), and cough (AHR= 0.705, 95% CI= 0.519, 0.959, p-value=0.026) were found to be significant determinants of time to clinical improvement. On the binary logistic regression, the following factors were found to be significantly associated with disease outcome; SPO2 (AOR= 0.302, 95% CI= 0.193, 0.474, p-value=0.0001), shortness of breath (AOR= 0.354, 95% CI= 0.213, 0.590, p-value=0.0001) and diabetes mellitus (AOR= 0.549, 95% CI= 0.337, 0.894, p-value=0.016).ConclusionsThe average duration of time to clinical improvement was 14 days and 89.4 % of the patients achieved clinical improvement. The mortality rate of the studied population is lower than reports from other countries including those in Africa. Having severe COVID-19 disease severity and presenting with cough were found to be associated with delayed clinical improvement of the disease. On the other hand, being hyperthermic is associated with shorter disease duration (faster time to clinical improvement). In addition, lower oxygen saturation and subjective complaint of shortness of breath and being diabetic were associated with unfavorable disease outcome. Therefore, patients with these factors should be followed cautiously for a better outcome.

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Determinants of Developing Symptomatic Disease in Ethiopian COVID-19 Patients

Cited by 9 publications

References 18 publications

Laboratory biomarkers of COVID-19 disease severity and outcome: Findings from a developing country

Laboratory biomarkers of COVID-19 disease severity and outcome: Findings from a developing country

Laboratory Biomarkers of COVID-19 Disease Severity and Outcome: Findings from a Developing Country

Characteristics and outcome profile of Hospitalized African COVID-19 patients: The Ethiopian Context

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