Determinants of Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Their Peaking Prospect: Evidence From China

Abstract

In order to examine the key determinants of carbon dioxide emissions and judge whether China’s carbon dioxide emissions can reach their peak value before 2030, this study first uses the extended STIRPAT model to analyze the determinants of China’s carbon dioxide emissions from 1995 to 2019 and then uses the model regression result to forecast the carbon dioxide emissions from 2020 to 2040 under six scenarios to investigate their prospect. It is found that population size, GDP per capita, energy intensity, the share of coal consumption, urbanization level, the share of secondary industry, and investment have significant positive effects on carbon dioxide emissions. Among them, the influence of population size is the biggest and energy intensity is the weakest. China’s carbon dioxide emissions can reach their peak in 2029 under the baseline scenario. Increasing the rate of population growth, energy intensity, and share of coal consumption will push back the peak year. A lower rate of economic growth and share of the secondary industry will bring the peak year forward. Therefore, it is necessary to optimize the industrial structure and energy consumption structure, reduce the energy intensity, and control the population size in order to achieve the goal of peaking carbon dioxide emissions as soon as possible.

Decoupling analysis and peak prediction of carbon emission in less developed provinces: A case study of Sichuan province, China

“…Existing studies have shown that population, energy structure, and industrial structure all have positive impacts on carbon emissions. 58,29 The results show that the population (0.034), industrial structure (0.1267), and energy structure (0.0457) positively correlate with carbon emissions. These results are consistent with existing research results.…”

Global per-capita CO 2 emission trends and the driving forces for shifts in the center of gravity

“…Analyzing the migration trajectory for the center of gravity is therefore a useful means of analyzing the spatial and temporal patterns of the element. Many studies have also used this method to assess the transfer of carbon emissions Zhao et al, 2022):…”

“…There is a large difference between the cost of carbon emissions reduction in developed and developing countries, which can lead to a large difference in the effectiveness of the implemented actions to reduce carbon emissions (Li et al, 2015). Population size is one of the most important factors to affect carbon dioxide emissions, and differences in population size mean that the same targets have different implications when applied to countries with different population sizes (Zhao et al, 2022). It is unreasonable to measure the reduction in carbon emissions from a country only from the total emissions.…”

Implications of global carbon governance for corporate carbon emissions reduction

“…As the main contributor to global warming and environmental pollution, enterprises play a critical role in carbon emissions reduction (Chen et al, 2022;Jiao et al, 2022;Zhang et al, 2022;Zhao et al, 2022). Therefore, enterprises should take on more responsibilities for reducing carbon emissions (Besio and Pronzini, 2014;Haney, 2017).…”