Detecting the onset of spring: a possible application of phenological models

Schwartz,

doi:10.3354/cr001023

Cited by 34 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 19 publications

(31 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…It is likely that shrubs and grasses are affected more strongly by water availability than forests during the growing season. In addition, this result may reflect the fact that the end of the growing season is controlled by both photoperiod and temperature (Hänninen et al, 1990;Schwartz, 1990).…”

Section: Comparison Of Vegetation Phenology Between Urban and Rural Amentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate controls on vegetation phenological patterns in northern mid‐ and high latitudes inferred from MODIS data

Zhang

Friedl

Schaaf

et al. 2004

Global Change Biology

457

306

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Recent studies using both field measurements and satellite-derived-vegetation indices have demonstrated that global warming is influencing vegetation growth and phenology. To accurately predict the future response of vegetation to climate variation, a thorough understanding of vegetation phenological cycles and their relationship to temperature and precipitation is required. In this paper, vegetation phenological transition dates identified using data from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) in 2001 are linked with MODIS land surface temperature (LST) data from the northern hemisphere between 351N and 701N. The results show well-defined patterns dependent on latitude, in which vegetation greenup gradually migrates northward starting in March, and dormancy spreads southward from late September. Among natural vegetation land-cover types, the growing-season length for forests is strongly correlated with variation in mean annual LST. For urban areas, the onset of greenup is 4-9 days earlier on average, and the onset of dormancy is about 2-16 days later, relative to adjacent natural vegetation. This difference (especially for urban vs. forests) is apparently related to urban heat island effects that result in both the average spring temperature and the mean annual temperature in urban areas being about 1-3 1C higher relative to rural areas. The results also indicate that urban heat island effects on vegetation phenology are stronger in North America than in Europe and Asia. Finally, the onset of forest greenup at continental scales can be effectively described using a thermal time-chilling model, which can be used to infer the delay or advance of greenup onset in relation to climatic warming at global scale.

show abstract

Section: Comparison Of Vegetation Phenology Between Urban and Rural Amentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate controls on vegetation phenological patterns in northern mid‐ and high latitudes inferred from MODIS data

Zhang

Friedl

Schaaf

et al. 2004

Global Change Biology

457

306

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Phenological models are important tools to predict the impact of global warming on plant development (Schwartz 1990;Kramer 1996;Menzel 1997;Kramer et al 2000). In phenology the use of heat and chilling units to model plant development is common (Chuine et al 2003).…”

Section: Model Constructionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Possible impacts of climate change on natural vegetation in Saxony (Germany)

2005

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Recent climate changes have had distinct impacts on plant development in many parts of the world. Higher air temperatures, mainly since the end of the 1980s, have led to advanced timing of phenological phases and consequently to an extension of the general growing season. For this reason it is interesting to know how plants will respond to future climate change. In this study simple phenological models have been developed to estimate the impact of climate change on the natural vegetation in Saxony. The estimations are based on a regional climate scenario for the state of Saxony. The results indicate that changes in the timing of phenophases could continue in the future. Due to distinct temperature changes in winter and in summer, mainly the spring and summer phases will be advanced. Spring phenophases, such as leafing or flowering, show the strongest trends. Depending on the species, the average timing of these phenophases could be advanced by 3-27 days by 2050. Phenophases in autumn show relatively small changes. Thus, the annual growth period of individual trees will be further extended, mainly because of the shift of spring phases. Frequent droughts in summer and in autumn can compensate for the earlier leafing of trees, because in this case leaf colouring and leaf fall would start some weeks earlier. In such cases, the growing period would not be really extended, but shifted to the beginning of the year.

show abstract

“…Using these same data, Marotz (1986, 1988) created a first-leaf model that is driven by daily surface maximum-minimum temperatures. Schwartz (1990) combined the lilac with similar models for two honeysuckle clones, producing a "spring index." Schwartz (1997) subsequently updated and expanded the earlier model (providing both first-leaf and first-bloom models), and included comparative native species data.…”

Section: Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Advancing to full bloom: planning phenological research for the 21st century

Schwartz

1999

International Journal of Biometeorology

165

100

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Phenology has emerged recently as an important focus for ecological research, primarily because of its considerable promise to address important questions in global modeling, monitoring, and climate change. Remote sensing technological developments have also contributed to phenology's resurgence, by generating extensive biosphere-related databases that require careful calibration and interpretation. This article reviews the major objectives, accomplishments, and challenges of contemporary phenological research, concentrating on papers presented in this thematic issue of the International Journal of Biometeorology and other recent venues relevant to global change. Strategies for the continued advancement toward global change-related goals are also presented. The crucial catalyst to this potential contribution will be the systematic development of observation networks on a national and global scale during the next decade and beyond.& k w d : Key words Phenology · Global change · Remote sensing& b d y :Prepared in conjunction with a presentation made at the ISB

show abstract

Detecting the onset of spring: a possible application of phenological models

Cited by 34 publications

References 19 publications

Climate controls on vegetation phenological patterns in northern mid‐ and high latitudes inferred from MODIS data

Climate controls on vegetation phenological patterns in northern mid‐ and high latitudes inferred from MODIS data

Possible impacts of climate change on natural vegetation in Saxony (Germany)

Advancing to full bloom: planning phenological research for the 21st century

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About