Detecting the Effects of Sustained Glacier Wastage on Streamflow in Variably Glacierized Catchments

Moore, R. D.; Pelto, Ben M.; Menounos, Brian; Hutchinson, David

doi:10.3389/feart.2020.00136

Cited by 30 publications

(36 citation statements)

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“…Our estimate of total ice volume for the Basin is respectively 17 and 29% greater than these previous estimates, about 30–45 years of glacial runoff using current rates of glacier wastage (Menounos and others, 2019; Pelto and others, 2019). Clarke and others (2015) found that initial ice volume can vary by ≈ 10–20% with little impact on runoff decline and Moore and others (2020) find that glacier-melt contributions to August runoff have likely passed peak water in the Basin.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bias-corrected estimates of glacier thickness in the Columbia River Basin, Canada

et al. 2020

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Several global datasets of glacier thickness exist, but the number of observations from western Canada are sparse and spatially biased. To supplement these limited observations, we measured ice thickness with ice penetrating radar on five glaciers in the Columbia Mountains, Canada. Our radar surveys, when combined with previous surveys for two glaciers in the Rocky Mountains, total 182 km of transects that represent 34 672 point measurements of ice thickness. Our measurements are, on average, 38% thicker than previous surface inversion model estimates of glacier thickness. Using our measurements within a cross-validation scheme, we model ice thickness with the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) driven with recent observations of surface mass balance and glacier elevation. We calibrated OGGM ice thickness by optimizing the ice creep parameter in the model. The optimized OGGM yields an ice volume for Columbia Basin of 122.5 ± 22.4 km3 for the year 2000, which is 23% greater than the range of previous estimates. At current rates of glacier mass loss for this region, glaciers would disappear from the basin in about 65–80 years. Disappearance of these glaciers will negatively affect the basin's surface hydrology, freshwater availability and aquatic ecosystems.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bias-corrected estimates of glacier thickness in the Columbia River Basin, Canada

et al. 2020

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“…From a hydrological perspective, as glacier loss progresses, glacier wastage contributions and enhanced ablation will increase glacial contributions to discharge towards "peak water" (Huss and Hock, 2018), followed by a decline in glacier runoff due to loss of ice-covered area, even with further warming and increasing specific ablation rates. It remains uncertain where, when, and over what scales this will occur, although some studies have indicated that peak water has already passed in parts of southwestern Canada (Moore et al, 2020). Clarke et al (2015) projected that peak runoff of glacier meltwater will occur between 2020 and 2040.…”

Section: Glacier Lossmentioning

confidence: 99%

Summary and synthesis of Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) research in the interior of western Canada – Part 2: Future change in cryosphere, vegetation, and hydrology

DeBeer¹,

Wheater²,

Pomeroy³

et al. 2020

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Abstract. The interior of western Canada, like many similar cold mid- to high-latitude regions worldwide, is undergoing extensive and rapid climate and environmental change, which may accelerate in the coming decades. Understanding and predicting changes in coupled climate–land–hydrological systems are crucial to society, yet limited by lack of understanding of changes in cold region process responses and interactions, along with their representation in most current generation land surface and hydrological models. It is essential to consider the underlying processes and base predictive models on the proper physics, especially under conditions of non-stationarity where the past is no longer a reliable guide to the future and system trajectories can be unexpected. These challenges were forefront in the recently completed Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN), which assembled and focused a wide range of multi-disciplinary expertise to improve the understanding, diagnosis, and prediction of change over the cold interior of western Canada. CCRN advanced knowledge of fundamental cold region ecological and hydrological processes through observation and experimentation across a network of highly instrumented research basins and other sites. Significant efforts were made to improve the functionality and process representation, based on this improved understanding, within the fine-scale Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling (CRHM) platform and the large-scale Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire (MEC) – Surface and Hydrology (MESH) model. These models were, and continue to be, applied under past and projected future climates, and under current and expected future land and vegetation cover configurations to diagnose historical change and predict possible future hydrological responses. This second of two articles synthesizes the nature and understanding of cold region processes and Earth system responses to future climate, as advanced by CCRN. These include changing precipitation and moisture feedbacks to the atmosphere; altered snow regimes, changing balance of snowfall and rainfall, and glacier loss; vegetation responses to climate and the loss of ecosystem resilience to wildfire and disturbance; thawing permafrost and its influence on landscapes and hydrology; groundwater storage and cycling, and its connections to surface water; and stream and river discharge as influenced by the various drivers of hydrological change. Collective insights, expert elicitation, and model application are used to provide a synthesis of this change over the CCRN region for the late-21st century.

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“…Bolch, Menounos, & Wheate, 2010), glacier contributions to streamflow are changing (e.g. Moore, Pelto, Menounos, & Hutchinson, 2020). For a glacier in equilibrium, ice melt over the lower glacier is balanced by snow accumulation over the upper portion of the glacier.…”

Section: Importance Of the Cryospherementioning

confidence: 99%

“…. Glacier retreat and the consequent runoff decline (Moore et al, 2020), further magnifies this effect by reducing streamflow contributions in the late summer months when demand is greatest for both ecosystems and human water resources. Salmon have immense cultural and economic significance in the region (e.g.…”

Section: Importance Of the Cryospherementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Glacier runoff buffers against low flows and warm temperatures outside the optimal range for native fish and aquatic species (Moore, 2006). Given that peak water is likely passed for the Columbia Basin (Moore et al, 2020), improved estimates of runoff decline are critical for efforts to mitigate the negative effects of this loss. There are many stresses on meeting in-stream flow needs for aquatic ecosystems and fish, due to the reservoirs and hydroelectric system in western Canada (e.g.…”

Section: Broader Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An approach to remotely monitor glacier mass balance at seasonal to annual time scales, Columbia and Rocky Mountains, Canada.

Pelto¹

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My dissertation investigates glacier mass change in the Columbia and Rocky Mountains of British Columbia. In chapter one I discuss the importance of the cryosphere and glaciers, introduce the climate and glaciers of the study region, and outline the objectives and structure of this dissertation. Previous work established the feasibility of geodetic methods to accurately produce winter glacier mass balance and annual glacier mass balance. These studies demonstrate that geodetic surveys can be used to estimate mass balance during the accumulation season or for one glacier over a number of years. In chapter two, I refine these published methods to measure seasonal and annual mass balance for six glaciers within two mountain ranges from 2014–2018. I use synchronous field-based glaciological measurements, airbornelaser scanningsurveys (ALS) and satelliteimagery to quantify seasonal glacier mass change from 2014–2018. Chapter three reports on radar surveys I completed of the study glaciers, adding important observations to the global database of ice thickness. I use these observations and an existing flowline model, driven with observations of surface mass balance and glacier elevation to bias-correct ice thickness estimates for each glacier. Finally, I use the model to estimate ice thickness for all glaciers in the Columbia Basin and estimate total ice volume. Chapter four builds upon previous work which used surface topography, glacier mass balance, ice thickness, and ice velocity data to estimate ice flux at discrete glacier cross-sections. Previous efforts to infer the spatial distribution of mass balance have focused on glacier tongues. I expand upon this method, calculating surface mass balance between flux gates over the entire elevation range of three glaciers, over three years. I derive the altitude-mass balance relation and demonstrate that the relation can be accurately described with high-resolution elevation and ice flux data, and suggest that this method can be expanded for large-scale estimates. Chapter five summarizes the study’s major findings, highlights its limitations and discussed its broader implications. Finally, I make recommendations that will address knowledge gaps, and improve our understanding of changing glacier conditions and ability to model glacier dynamics.

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Detecting the Effects of Sustained Glacier Wastage on Streamflow in Variably Glacierized Catchments

Cited by 30 publications

References 45 publications

Bias-corrected estimates of glacier thickness in the Columbia River Basin, Canada

Bias-corrected estimates of glacier thickness in the Columbia River Basin, Canada

Summary and synthesis of Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) research in the interior of western Canada – Part 2: Future change in cryosphere, vegetation, and hydrology

An approach to remotely monitor glacier mass balance at seasonal to annual time scales, Columbia and Rocky Mountains, Canada.

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