Detección de insolvencia financiera mediante el modelo Z-Altman en empresas colombianas no cotizantes durante el periodo 2016-2019

Roque, Daniel Isaac; Carrero, Andrés Caicedo

doi:10.18800/contabilidad.202201.007

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 10 publications

(18 reference statements)

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“…The reasonableness of the information is crucial for the survival of SMEs, since it affirms that the figures presented are real and consistent with business reality, minimizing the threats of bankruptcy risk that endanger the continuity of the companies [6]. When unexpected closures occur due to company bankruptcies, there is a risk of affecting other companies in their production chain, even more so when they are small and medium-sized companies [7]. The authors in this research establish the objective of providing an exhaustive review of the current literature on risk management to minimize bankruptcies and unexpected closures of small and medium-sized companies, with one of the most important components being the evaluation of risks [8].…”

Section: Related Worksupporting

confidence: 54%

Prototype to Mitigate Risks and Threats for the Closure of Small and Medium-Sized Businesses with the Support of ICT

Altamirano Salazar,

Toapanta Toapanta,

Del Pozo Durango

et al. 2024

Preprint

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The lack of application of management models that allow strategies to be converted into action and then measure their results in order to apply improvement actions to meet the objectives in small and medium-sized companies (SMEs); they generate problems in their management causing the closure of their operations unexpectedly; To mitigate the risks of closure and bankruptcy with the support of ICT, an alternative was presented considering that risk management is important in decision making at a strategic, tactical and operational level. The objective is to design a prototype to mitigate risks and prevent threats to avoid the closure of this type of company. Through the analysis of related articles, applying sequences of methodological steps; It was determined that the proposed results are aimed at how to identify and mitigate the risks and threats that cause their bankruptcy and closure. Prototypes resulted that allow mitigating risks, preventing threats and minimizing vulnerabilities in the management of SMEs. It was concluded that the proposed prototype to detect threats and vulnerabilities provides an optimal security model for small and medium-sized companies; As a result of the simulations, a security percentage of 77.92% was established, which means that the greater the number of risks and threats, the greater the probability that a small and medium-sized company will close.

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Section: Related Worksupporting

confidence: 54%

Prototype to Mitigate Risks and Threats for the Closure of Small and Medium-Sized Businesses with the Support of ICT

Altamirano Salazar,

Toapanta Toapanta,

Del Pozo Durango

et al. 2024

Preprint

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“…Z-Score Model use accounting data, reported by means of tables, as original information. Altman Z-Score is a highly useful indicator for analyzing the existing state of the company structure, its potential structure and tendencies in the future (Roque and Carrero, 2022). Altman's (1968) Z-Score, the first version of the model, was applied to public manufacturing firms taking place in the US market.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Use of Accounting-Based Models for Measurement of Financial Performance: Comparison of Altman Z'' and Mfa Score

GÖKTÜRK¹,

YALÇINKAYA²

2023

ФКДПТП

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The aim of this study is to try to identify the presence of a relationship between index results of the Altman Z'' Score and MFA Score Models and the market values of the firms and to determine which model is more effective among these models. In a comparison of the two models, which is the study subject, the service sector was specially chosen. The main reason for preferring the service sector is that Altman Z'' Score Model was formed by firstly modifying the original Altman Z'' Score Model for the firms in the USA (United States of America) Service Sector. However, later, it was identified and recommended that this model was also valid for the firms of developing countries, MFA Score Model is a model developed specifically for Turkey. It was desired to identify that it can be measured not only the financial failures of the firms of interest but also their possible achievements in the future and to compare both models. Thus, for middle and long-term investors, investment support information based on more scientific fundamentals will be introduced. In addition, a dataset which will support the decision processes of in-firm stakeholders other than investors will be reached. In order to be able to reach the aims of interest, BIST in the service sector was used in the study. In the study, panel time series co-integration data were used and, as a result, it was understood that Altman Z'' –Score Model made an effect of 36.3% to the firm value for a lagging of one period, while MFA Model made an effect of 51.9% to the firm value for a lagging of one period. According to this, it was identified that MFA model data were more effective in the prediction of firm value.

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“…Siendo una métrica financiera aceptada para anticipar dificultades financieras y posible estado de insolvencia financiera en varios sectores (Alcalde, Alonso de Armiño y García, 2022). El modelo de puntaje Z ha sido centro de una extensa gama de investigaciones, mediante las cuales se han planteado diferentes adaptaciones e implementaciones en numerosos sectores (Roque y Caicedo Carrero, 2022). Los autores Isaac-Roque y Caicedo-Carrero (2023) también reconocen que el modelo de Altman se ha considerado como técnica para relacionar la probabilidad de insolvencia financiera con otros procesos al interior de las empresas.…”

Section: I-introducciónunclassified

Capacidad predictiva del modelo altman z-score en empresas declaradas en reorganización empresarial

Isaac-Roque,

Caicedo-Carrero,

Muñoz-Álvarez

2023

aes

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La medición de la insolvencia financiera ha evolucionado en los últimos 60 años desde un enfoque subjetivo hasta la creación de técnicas sofisticadas (modelos clásicos y modelos alternativos). Dentro de este grupo de modelos, se destaca el modelo de puntaje Z de Altman, herramienta de pronóstico de insolvencia financiera objeto de un gran número de investigaciones en diferentes sectores económicos. Si bien existen investigaciones que validan la precisión del modelo de Altman, no se evidencia un consenso teórico sobre la capacidad predictiva del modelo Altman Z-score y el estado de insolvencia financiera declarado bajo la Ley 1116 del 2006. Por tal motivo, el presente estudio tiene como objetivo medir el nivel de predictibilidad del Altman Z-score en empresas colombianas declaradas en reorganización empresarial. Para cumplir el objetivo planteado, el estudio se desarrolla bajo un enfoque metodológico cuantitativo de tipo descriptivo. Los resultados de las mediciones del modelo muestran que, en promedio, las empresas se encuentran en zona segura, esto significa que tienen baja probabilidad de insolvencia. Por lo tanto, es contradictorio que para el año 2021 estas compañías estuvieran en reorganización empresarial. Tomando como base los resultados de la investigación se pudo concluir que, aunque el nivel de predictibilidad del modelo es solo del 33%, esto no significa que el modelo sea una herramienta financiera deficiente para calcular la probabilidad de quiebra de las empresas en Colombia.

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Detección de insolvencia financiera mediante el modelo Z-Altman en empresas colombianas no cotizantes durante el periodo 2016-2019

Cited by 5 publications

References 10 publications

Prototype to Mitigate Risks and Threats for the Closure of Small and Medium-Sized Businesses with the Support of ICT

Prototype to Mitigate Risks and Threats for the Closure of Small and Medium-Sized Businesses with the Support of ICT

Use of Accounting-Based Models for Measurement of Financial Performance: Comparison of Altman Z'' and Mfa Score

Capacidad predictiva del modelo altman z-score en empresas declaradas en reorganización empresarial

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