Detecção de Tendências Monotônicas Temporais e Relação com Erros dos Tipos I e II: Estudo de Caso em Séries de Precipitações Diárias Máximas Anuais do Estado do Acre

Moreira, José Genivaldo do Vale; Naghettini, Mauro

doi:10.1590/0102-778631231420140155

Cited by 22 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…First, it was verified that the historical mean of the annual maximum daily flows registered in Cruzeiro do Sul (12500000) in the studied period was of 3,243.9 m 3 /s. The maximum value recorded in the period in said station was 4,430.4 m 3 These streamflow values are characteristic to Amazonian rivers, which tend to present high flow values and a large variation between the maximum and minimum values recorded, as reported by Moreira and Naghettini 2016, for these authors, the hydrological conditions of the region can be influenced by anthropic activities as well as by fluctuations in its climate patterns.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 50%

“…The dry, low-flow period is popularly known as the "Amazonian summer," while the rainy season with higher flows in the watercourses is known as the "Amazonian winter." In the heavy rainfall period, it is common for rivers to overflow their banks in their main channels, consequently invading their flood plains (Macêdo et al, 2013;Moreira and Naghettini, 2016).…”

Section: Followingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Stationarity in Annual Daily Maximum Streamflow Series in the Hydrographic Basin of the Upper Juruá River, Western Amazon

Moreira

Aquino

Mesquita

et al. 2019

Rev. Bras. Geog. Fis.

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The objective of this study was to investigate the hypothesis of stationary behavior in the streamflow regime of the upper Juruá river. For this purpose, annual maximum daily flow data recorded at stations located in Cruzeiro do Sul and Marechal Thaumaturgo, AC, Brazil, were analyzed using Mann-Kendall, Pettitt, and Spearman's Rho tests. The results show sufficient evidence to conclude that in Cruzeiro do Sul flow rates have an ascending temporal behavior, while in Marechal Thaumaturgo it is descending. However, this tendency is not significant (p<0.05), allowing to conclude in favor of the hypothesis of stationarity in the streamflow series of the referred basin. Thus, one of the physical implications associated to the results obtained may be the conclusion that the streamflow regime in the Upper Juruá basin has not changed significantly over time. Key words: stationarity, annual maximum daily flow, Upper Juruá basin. R E S U M O O presente estudo tem o objetivo de investigar a hipótese de comportamento estacionário no regime de vazões do alto rio Juruá. Para tal, foram utilizadas as séries temporais de vazões diárias máximas anuais, gravados nas estações localizadas em Cruzeiro do Sul e Marechal Thaumaturgo, as quais foram analisadas por meio do teste de Mann-Kendall, de Pettitt e do Spearman Rho teste. Os resultados demonstram evidências suficientes para concluir que, em Cruzeiro do Sul, as vazões apresentam comportamento temporal ascendente, enquanto em Marechal Thaumaturgo descendente. Entretanto, tal inclinação não é significativa (p<0,05), permitindo concluir em favor da hipótese de estacionariedade nas séries de vazões da referida bacia hidrográfica. Assim, uma das implicações físicas associadas aos resultados obtidos pode ser a conclusão de que o regime de vazões na bacia do Alto Juruá não sofreu alterações significativas ao longo do tempo. Palavras-chave: estacionariedade, vazões máximas, Bacia do Alto Juruá.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 50%

Section: Followingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stationarity in Annual Daily Maximum Streamflow Series in the Hydrographic Basin of the Upper Juruá River, Western Amazon

Moreira

Aquino

Mesquita

et al. 2019

Rev. Bras. Geog. Fis.

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“…The main statistical tests used in studies to estimate the significance of gradual changes in the series of hydrological data are the nonparametric tests Mann-Kendall, Spearman (e.g. MOREIRA;NAGHETTINI, 2016;SILVEIRA;FERNANDES;SILVA, 2017;SANTOS et al, 2016) and Seasonal Kendall, and the parametric test of linear regression (e.g. WANDERLEY et al, 2013), which is mean to check whether there is a linear trend in the relationship between time and the variable of interest.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detection of trends for extreme events of precipitation in the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte through statistical methods

Nunes

Pinto

Baptista

2018

RBRH

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Extreme weather events have emerged as one of the main manifestations of climate change, being that the mitigation of the elapsed impacts demand studies of the magnitude and frequency of their occurrence. This study aims to identify the trends of extreme precipitation events in the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte, especially concerning their frequency. The trends of precipitation were studied with especial regard to the indices set by ETCCDMI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices), including time series of annual number of rainy days above a certain threshold recorded at fourteen rainfall gauging stations. One stage of this study consisted in surveying the flood occurrence in the area, besides analyzing the precipitation data corresponding to date of flood occurrences, in order to establish a threshold value beyond which an event would entail potential impacts. No regional index pattern could be set based on such results, although the rainfall station located in the city of Belo Horizonte reported a statistically significant increase in daily precipitation events above 10, 20, 30 and 40 mm, in maximum precipitation recorded over five consecutive days, in daily intensity, and in total annual precipitation. Abrupt changes in rainfall series were also recorded. The results have indicated that the city may be potentially impacted by extreme rainfall increase, probably associated to changes in temperatures on regional and local scales. RESUMOEventos climáticos extremos são considerados uma das principais manifestações de mudança climática, sendo que a minimização dos impactos decorrentes passa pelo estudo da magnitude e frequência de suas ocorrências. Neste sentido, a presente pesquisa busca identificar tendências em eventos extremos de precipitação na Região Metropolitana de Belo Horizonte, à luz da crescente preocupação com o aumento de sua ocorrência na região. As tendências da precipitação foram estudadas, principalmente, por meio dos índices estabelecidos pela ETCCDMI, incluindo séries temporais do número anual de dias chuvosos acima de um certo limiar estabelecido, considerando quatorze estações pluviométricas. A fim de estimar o valor de precipitação limiar, que acarretaria potenciais impactos, foi realizada uma busca de alagamentos ocorridos na região, para que estes fossem associados aos dados de precipitação nos dias de sua ocorrência. A análise efetuada não permitiu a detecção de um padrão regional nos índices analisados, no entanto, a estação localizada em Belo Horizonte apresentou aumento dos eventos de precipitação diária iguais ou superiores a 10, 20, 30 e 40 mm, na precipitação acumulada em cinco dias consecutivos, na intensidade diária e no total anual precipitado. Foram também registradas mudanças abruptas nas séries de precipitação. Os resultados indicaram que Belo Horizonte pode ser impactada pelo aumento de chuvas extremas, fato que pode estar associado a mudanças identificadas nas séries de temperatura.Palavras-chave: chuvas extremas; mudanças climáticas; não estac...

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“…On the other hand, the Mann-Kendall-Sen nonparametric test was used to verify trends in the streamflow and NEA series in the projections under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for the 21st century. According to Moreira & Naghettini (2016), the Mann-Kendall-Sen nonparametric test has been widely used for hydrological studies and is recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for temporal series analysis of environmental variables.…”

Section: Statistical Analysis Of Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projections of climate change in streamflow and affluent natural energy in the Brazilian hydroelectric sector of CORDEX models

Silva

Silveira

Silva

et al. 2020

RBRH

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Long-term water and energy planning makes it possible to reduce social and economic impacts by avoiding episodes of interruption in water and electricity supply, essential services for several sectors. Thus, the analyses proposed by this study aimed at identifying the impact of climate change on naturalised streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy (NEA) projections for the Brazilian electricity sector using six models of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project, based on the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for the 21st century. The streamflows for the 24 stations representing the National Interconnected System (NIS) were estimated through the concentrated hydrological model SMAP (Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure), while the streamflows for the other stations that comprise the NIS were obtained by linear regression. The streamflows, as well as the productivity of the reservoirs, were used to calculate the NEA. The results showed that most of the models project possible reductions in annual naturalized streamflows and NEA for the three periods analyzed and for the North, Northeast and Southeast/Midwest sectors. Meanwhile, in the Southern sector, for the period 2010-2039, most of the models indicated an increase in the annual naturalized streamflows and NEA.

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Detecção de Tendências Monotônicas Temporais e Relação com Erros dos Tipos I e II: Estudo de Caso em Séries de Precipitações Diárias Máximas Anuais do Estado do Acre

Cited by 22 publications

References 33 publications

Stationarity in Annual Daily Maximum Streamflow Series in the Hydrographic Basin of the Upper Juruá River, Western Amazon

Stationarity in Annual Daily Maximum Streamflow Series in the Hydrographic Basin of the Upper Juruá River, Western Amazon

Detection of trends for extreme events of precipitation in the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte through statistical methods

Projections of climate change in streamflow and affluent natural energy in the Brazilian hydroelectric sector of CORDEX models

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