Description and Verification of the NOAA Smoke Forecasting System: The 2007 Fire Season

Rolph, Glenn D.; Draxler, Roland R.; Stein, Ariel; Taylor, Arthur; Ruminski, M.; Kondragunta, Shobha; Zeng, Jian; Huang, Ho–Chun; Manikin, Geoffrey S.; McQueen, J.; Davidson, Paula M.

doi:10.1175/2008waf2222165.1

Cited by 144 publications

(121 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Concentrations of fine particulate matter dispersed from the Pocosin Lakes National Wildlife Refuge wildfire were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Smoke Forecasting System [15]. These estimates are based on smoke dispersion simulations from the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cardio-respiratory outcomes associated with exposure to wildfire smoke are modified by measures of community health

et al. 2012

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BackgroundCharacterizing factors which determine susceptibility to air pollution is an important step in understanding the distribution of risk in a population and is critical for setting appropriate policies. We evaluate general and specific measures of community health as modifiers of risk for asthma and congestive heart failure following an episode of acute exposure to wildfire smoke.MethodsA population-based study of emergency department visits and daily concentrations of fine particulate matter during a wildfire in North Carolina was performed. Determinants of community health defined by County Health Rankings were evaluated as modifiers of the relative risk. A total of 40 mostly rural counties were included in the study. These rankings measure factors influencing health: health behaviors, access and quality of clinical care, social and economic factors, and physical environment, as well as, the outcomes of health: premature mortality and morbidity. Pollutant concentrations were obtained from a mathematically modeled smoke forecasting system. Estimates of relative risk for emergency department visits were based on Poisson mixed effects regression models applied to daily visit counts.ResultsFor asthma, the strongest association was observed at lag day 0 with excess relative risk of 66%(28,117). For congestive heart failure the excess relative risk was 42%(5,93). The largest difference in risk was observed after stratifying on the basis of Socio-Economic Factors. Difference in risk between bottom and top ranked counties by Socio-Economic Factors was 85% and 124% for asthma and congestive heart failure respectively.ConclusionsThe results indicate that Socio-Economic Factors should be considered as modifying risk factors in air pollution studies and be evaluated in the assessment of air pollution impacts.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cardio-respiratory outcomes associated with exposure to wildfire smoke are modified by measures of community health

et al. 2012

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“…Most of these days occur during winter months. Rolph et al (2009) used the HMS smoke plumes to validate NOAA's operational smoke forecasting system. There is no published validation of the HMS smoke-plume extent data.…”

Section: Description Of Hms Smoke Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Connecting smoke plumes to sources using Hazard Mapping System (HMS) smoke and fire location data over North America

et al. 2018

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Abstract. Fires represent an air quality challenge because they are large, dynamic and transient sources of particulate matter and ozone precursors. Transported smoke can deteriorate air quality over large regions. Fire severity and frequency are likely to increase in the future, exacerbating an existing problem. Using the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) Hazard Mapping System (HMS) smoke data for North America for the period 2007 to 2014, we examine a subset of fires that are confirmed to have produced sufficient smoke to warrant the initiation of a U.S. National Weather Service smoke forecast. We find that gridded HMS-analyzed fires are well correlated (r = 0.84) with emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Inventory Database 4s (GFED4s). We define a new metric, smoke hours, by linking observed smoke plumes to active fires using ensembles of forward trajectories. This work shows that the Southwest, Northwest, and Northwest Territories initiate the most air quality forecasts and produce more smoke than any other North American region by measure of the number of HYSPLIT points analyzed, the duration of those HYS-PLIT points, and the total number of smoke hours produced. The average number of days with smoke plumes overhead is largest over the north-central United States. Only Alaska, the Northwest, the Southwest, and Southeast United States regions produce the majority of smoke plumes observed over their own borders. This work moves a new dataset from a daily operational setting to a research context, and it demonstrates how changes to the frequency or intensity of fires in the western United States could impact other regions.

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“…The NOAA Hazard Mapping System smoke polygons show that the smoke events observed at BAO were large regional events. The HMS smoke product is produced using multiple NASA and NOAA satellite products (Rolph et al, 2009). Smoke in the atmospheric column is detected using both visible and infrared imagery and is fully described in Brey et al (2017).…”

Section: Smoke Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in ozone and precursors during two aged wildfire smoke events in the Colorado Front Range in summer 2015

et al. 2017

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Abstract. The relative importance of wildfire smoke for air quality over the western US is expected to increase as the climate warms and anthropogenic emissions decline. We report on in situ measurements of ozone (O 3 ), a suite of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and reactive oxidized nitrogen species collected during summer 2015 at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (BAO) in Erie, CO. Aged wildfire smoke impacted BAO during two distinct time periods during summer 2015: 6-10 July and 16-30 August. The smoke was transported from the Pacific Northwest and Canada across much of the continental US. Carbon monoxide and particulate matter increased during the smoke-impacted periods, along with peroxyacyl nitrates and several VOCs that have atmospheric lifetimes longer than the transport timescale of the smoke. During the August smokeimpacted period, nitrogen dioxide was also elevated during the morning and evening compared to the smoke-free periods. There were nine empirically defined high-O 3 days during our study period at BAO, and two of these days were smoke impacted. We examined the relationship between O 3 and temperature at BAO and found that for a given temperature, O 3 mixing ratios were greater (∼ 10 ppbv) during the smoke-impacted periods. Enhancements in O 3 during the August smoke-impacted period were also observed at two long-term monitoring sites in Colorado: Rocky Mountain National Park and the Arapahoe National Wildlife Refuge near Walden, CO. Our data provide a new case study of how aged wildfire smoke can influence atmospheric composition at an urban site, and how smoke can contribute to increased O 3 abundances across an urban-rural gradient.

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Description and Verification of the NOAA Smoke Forecasting System: The 2007 Fire Season

Cited by 144 publications

References 22 publications

Cardio-respiratory outcomes associated with exposure to wildfire smoke are modified by measures of community health

Cardio-respiratory outcomes associated with exposure to wildfire smoke are modified by measures of community health

Connecting smoke plumes to sources using Hazard Mapping System (HMS) smoke and fire location data over North America

Changes in ozone and precursors during two aged wildfire smoke events in the Colorado Front Range in summer 2015

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