Background
Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection causes substantial health and economic burden in the United States (US). With the availability of direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs), recently approved and other therapies under development and 1-time birth-cohort screening, the burden of HCV disease is expected to decrease.
Objective
To predict the impact of new therapies and screening on chronic HCV cases and associated disease outcomes.
Design
Individual-level state-transition model.
Setting
Existing and anticipated HCV therapies and screening in the US.
Patients
Total HCV-infected population in the US.
Measurements
Chronic HCV cases and advanced-stage HCV outcomes.
Results
The number of chronic HCV cases decreased from 3.2 million in 2001 to 2.3 million in 2013. One-time birth-cohort screening beginning in 2013 is expected to identify 487 000 HCV cases in the next 10 years. In contrast, 1-time universal screening could identify 933 700 HCV cases. With the availability of highly effective therapies, HCV could become a rare disease in the next 22 years. The adoption of recently approved HCV therapies and one-time birth-cohort screening can prevent approximately 124 200 cases of decompensated cirrhosis, 78 800 cases of hepatocellular carcinoma, 126 500 liver-related deaths and 9900 liver transplants by 2050. Increasing the treatment capacity would further reduce the burden of HCV-related disease.
Limitations
Empirical data on the effectiveness of the future HCV therapies, on the future annual incidence of HCV, and on HCV treatment capacity are lacking.
Conclusions
New HCV therapies along with widespread implementation of screening and treatment will play an important role in reducing the burden of HCV disease. More aggressive screening recommendations are needed to identify a large pool of infected patients.
Funding source
National Institutes of Health.