Background Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection causes substantial health and economic burden in the United States (US). With the availability of direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs), recently approved and other therapies under development and 1-time birth-cohort screening, the burden of HCV disease is expected to decrease. Objective To predict the impact of new therapies and screening on chronic HCV cases and associated disease outcomes. Design Individual-level state-transition model. Setting Existing and anticipated HCV therapies and screening in the US. Patients Total HCV-infected population in the US. Measurements Chronic HCV cases and advanced-stage HCV outcomes. Results The number of chronic HCV cases decreased from 3.2 million in 2001 to 2.3 million in 2013. One-time birth-cohort screening beginning in 2013 is expected to identify 487 000 HCV cases in the next 10 years. In contrast, 1-time universal screening could identify 933 700 HCV cases. With the availability of highly effective therapies, HCV could become a rare disease in the next 22 years. The adoption of recently approved HCV therapies and one-time birth-cohort screening can prevent approximately 124 200 cases of decompensated cirrhosis, 78 800 cases of hepatocellular carcinoma, 126 500 liver-related deaths and 9900 liver transplants by 2050. Increasing the treatment capacity would further reduce the burden of HCV-related disease. Limitations Empirical data on the effectiveness of the future HCV therapies, on the future annual incidence of HCV, and on HCV treatment capacity are lacking. Conclusions New HCV therapies along with widespread implementation of screening and treatment will play an important role in reducing the burden of HCV disease. More aggressive screening recommendations are needed to identify a large pool of infected patients. Funding source National Institutes of Health.

Oral direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) represent a major advance in hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment. Along with recent updates in HCV screening policy and expansions in insurance coverage, the treatment demand in the United States is changing rapidly. Our objective was to project the characteristics and number of people needing antiviral treatment, and HCV- associated disease burden in the era of oral DAAs. We used a previously developed and validated Hepatitis C Disease Burden Simulation model (HEP-SIM). HEP-SIM simulated the actual clinical management of HCV from 2001 onwards, which included antiviral treatment with peginterferon-based therapies as well as the recent oral DAAs, risk-based and birth-cohort HCV screening, and the impact of the Affordable Care Act. We also simulated two hypothetical scenarios—no treatment and treatment with peginterferon-based therapies only. We estimated that in 2010, 2.5 (95% CI: 1.9–3.1) million non-institutionalized people were viremic, which dropped to 1.9 (95% CI: 1.4–2.6) million in 2015, and projected to drop below 1 million by 2020. A total of 1.8 million HCV patients will receive HCV treatment from the launch of oral DAAs in 2014 until 2030. Based on current HCV management practices, it will take 4–6 years to treat the majority of patients aware of their disease. However, 560,000 patients would still remain unaware by 2020. Even in the oral DAA era, 320,000 patients will die, 157,000 will develop hepatocellular carcinoma, and 203,000 will develop decompensated cirrhosis in the next 35 years. Conclusions HCV-associated disease burden will still remain substantial in the era of oral DAAs. Increasing HCV screening and treatment capacity is essential to further decreasing HCV burden in the United States.

Introduction: Mobility impairments have substantial physical and mental health consequences, resulting in diminished quality of life. Whereas most studies on the health economic consequences of mobility limitations focus on short-term implications, this study examines the long-term value of improving mobility in older adults. Methods: Our six-step approach used clinical trial data to calibrate mobility improvements and estimate health economic outcomes using a microsimulation model. First, we measured improvement in steps per day calibrated with clinical trial data examining hylan G-F20 viscosupplementation treatment. Second, we created a cohort of osteoarthritis patients aged ≥51. In the third step, we estimated their baseline quality of life (QoL). Fourth, we translated steps per day improvements to changes in QoL using estimates from the literature. Fifth, we calibrated QoL in this cohort to match those in the trial. Lastly, we incorporated these data and parameters into The Health Economic Medical Innovation Simulation (THEMIS) model to estimate how mobility improvements affect functional status limitations, medical expenditures, nursing home utilization, employment, and earnings between 2012 and 2030. Results: In our sample of 12.6 million patients, 66.7% were female and 70% had BMI>25 kg/m2. Our model predicted that a 554-steps-per-day increase in mobility would reduce functional status limitations by 5.9%, total medical expenditures by 0.9%, and nursing home utilization by 2.8%, and increase employment by 2.9%, earnings by 10.3% and monetized QoL by 3.2% over this 18-year period. Conclusions: Interventions that improve mobility are likely to reduce long-run medical expenditures and nursing home utilization, and increase employment.

Objective Obesity and its complications place an enormous burden on society. Yet antiobesity medications (AOM) are prescribed to only 2% of the eligible population, even though few individuals can sustain weight loss using other strategies alone. This study estimated the societal value of greater access to AOM. Methods By using a well‐established simulation model (The Health Economics Medical Innovation Simulation), the societal value of AOM for the cohort of Americans aged ≥ 25 years in 2019 was quantified. Four scenarios with differential uptake among the eligible population (15% and 30%) were modeled, with efficacy from current and next‐generation AOM. Societal value was measured as monetized quality of life, productivity gains, and savings in medical spending, subtracting the costs of AOM. Results For the 217 million Americans aged ≥ 25 years, AOM generated $1.2 trillion in lifetime societal value under a conservative scenario (15% annual uptake using currently available AOM). The introduction of next‐generation AOM increased societal value to $1.9 to $2.5 trillion, depending on uptake. Finally, societal value was higher for younger individuals and Black and Hispanic individuals compared with White individuals. Conclusions This study suggests that AOM provide substantial gains to patients and society. Policies promoting broader clinical access to and use of AOM warrant consideration to reach national goals to reduce obesity.

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