Demographic Transitions and Socioeconomic Development in Italy, 1862–2009: A Brief Overview

Abstract

The present study investigates long-term population dynamics in Italy, 1862–2009, in light of Demographic Transitions (DTs). Under the assumption that DTs are multidimensional processes of change involving several aspects, including population structure and dynamics, an exploratory analysis was carried out in this study to verify temporal coherency of 15 indicators in Italy, identifying homogeneous time periods with distinct demographic characteristics. Indicators’ trends were identified using a multivariate statistical approach. The results of this study allow empirical testing of the assumption of temporal coherence between different aspects of a long-term DT, distinguishing distinctive population dynamics and the differential impact on population structure over two centuries. After a relatively long period of demographic stability, the time window encompassing the two World Wars—approximately between 1921 and 1951—was identified as a primary turning point of population dynamics in Italy; a second turning point was estimated at the beginning of the 1970s. These time intervals may represent conditions of dynamic equilibrium between demographic and socioeconomic contexts, highlighting latent system transitions. The study concludes by outlining the importance of a more effective integration of demographic transition theories into a broader sustainability framework, and implementing a diachronic analysis of political, economic, and social forces associated with population dynamics in both advanced economies and emerging countries.

Marital fertility decline and child mortality in the Sardinian longevity Blue Zone

“…The originality of our contribution stems from the in-depth view it provides of the association between the declines in fertility and mortality from both an individual and an aggregate perspective. In Villagrande and Seulo, as elsewhere in Sardinia, these fertility and mortality transitions occurred later than they did in the rest of Italy (Livi-Bacci 1977;Breschi 2012;Salvati et al 2019). General fertility dropped below the replacement level in the 1970s as the result of a decrease in marital fertility and a rise in the proportion of women who did not marry up to the end of their reproductive span.…”

“…Cultural and social factors conditioned the reproductive behaviour of couples, but mortality may have also been affected by (temporal) socio-economic and political conditions. Livi (1961) and, more recently, Salvati et al (2019) identified a period between the two world wars as a particularly relevant turning point in demographic dynamics. A similar period was noted during the 1970s.…”

Comparative Study of Population Aging Trend in Iran and Poland

“…In China, demographic transition has provided a window of opportunity for economic growth and the potential for socioeconomic development (Yuan & Gao, 2020). The process of modernization in economically-advanced countries such as Italy is intended to shift to new types of social, economic, and political systems which are closely linked to demographic transition (Salvati et al, 2019).…”

Transição Demográfica no Brasil: Um Estudo Sobre o Impacto do Envelhecimento Populacional na Previdência Social.

“…Países da Europa como a Itália, Alemanha e Grécia já enfrentam os efeitos do final da transição demográfica (Salvati, Carlucci, Serra, & Zambon, 2019), quando suas taxas de fecundidade e mortalidade se encontram em níveis baixos e o crescimento da população é próximo de zero. Como pode ser visto nos Gráficos 09 e 10, a fecundidade desses países se encontram abaixo de nível de reposição (2,1 por mulher), em torno de 1,5 na Alemanha, 1,3 na Grécia e 1,4 na Itália, em 2016, e a taxa de mortalidade também se encontra em níveis baixos.…”