Demographic transition in sub-Saharan Africa: How big will the economic dividend be?

Abstract

In mid-demographic-transition, many Asian countries enjoyed a large demographic 'dividend': extra economic growth owing to falling dependant/workforce ratios, or slower natural increase, or both. We estimate the dividend, 1985-2025, in sub-Saharan Africa and its populous countries. Dependency and natural increase peaked around 1985, 20 years after Asia. The UN projects an acceleration of the subsequent slow falls but disregards slowish declines in young-age mortality and thus, we argue, overestimates future fertility decline. Even if one accepts their projection, arithmetical and econometric evidence suggests an annual, if not total, dividend well below Asia's. The dividend arises more from falling dependency than reduced natural increase, and could be increased by accelerating the fertility decline (e.g., by reducing young-age mortality) or by employing a larger workforce productively. Any dividend from transition apart, low saving in much of Africa (unlike Asia) means that, given likely natural increase, current consumption per person is unsustainable because it depletes capital per person.

Youth migration, livelihood prospects and demographic dividend: A comparison of the Census 2011 and Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System in the rural northeast of South Africa

“…Consequential for the path of the demographic dividend—itself crucially dependent on the fertility and mortality dynamics that drive age structure—is the rate of change in fertility and mortality. For instance, one recent study, re-examining United Nations population projections, challenges the notion that Africa’s demographic dividend might mirror the dramatic pattern exhibited in Asia, arguing instead that slower fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa will dampen the age restructuring (Eastwood and Lipton 2011). …”

The Quiet Rise of Medium-Scale Farms in Malawi

“…According to this literature's framework, late developers, such as most countries of sub-Saharan Africa, are characterized by an incipient economic transition that is accompanied by an unfinished demographic transition (decrease of mortality rates with lingering high birth rates). This demographic structure leads to growing cohorts of new labor market entrants, which can result in opportunities for growth if the entrants can be accommodated, though if not, it represents a serious political and economic liability [25]. At farm level, Losch et al [24] emphasize that large-scale integration of agricultural producers into the global economy has not happened.…”

Contraceptive use and lengthening birth intervals in rural and urban Eastern Africa

“…At the macro level, high fertility rates and the resulting rapid population growth impede efforts to reduce poverty, particularly in the face of increasing global environmental and climatic instability (Dasgupta and Dasgupta 2017;Eastwood and Lipton 2011;Turner 2009). With regard to contraception, low levels of prevalence and high levels of unmet need for family planning are often problematic, as they are associated with high levels of maternal and infant mortality and morbidity as well as unwanted pregnancy and unsafe abortion.…”