Demographic Threats to National Security in the Political Discourse of the Russian Federation (1992–2019)

Abstract

Introduction. Population growth in the world is uneven: while in some countries the population has been growing for a long time (China, India), in Russia and in many EU and BRIC countries, the birth rate has been declining in recent years; and if this does not affect the population, then only by increasing life expectancy and migration. Abrupt changes – both growth and decline – in the population are a threat to the national security of the state. The purpose of this work is to evaluate the effectiveness of political management (strategies and tools) aimed at solving demographic problems and increasing the birth rate in the Russian Federation, as well as to identify the stages of the formation of demographic policy in the Russian Federation in 1992–2019. Methods and materials. Based on the qualitative analysis of normative documents, the frame analysis of speeches of political leaders the main factors that influenced the coverage of demographic problems are revealed (the authors used official electronic versions of the following publications: “Sobranie Zakonodatelstva Rossiyskoy Federatsii” (Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation) and “Byulleten normativnykh aktov federalnykh organov ispolnitelnoy vlasti” (Bulletin of Normative Acts of Federal Executive Authorities). Analysis. The proposed research strategy allowed identifying demographic threats to national security articulated by political actors and presented in official documents, statements of officials, as well as to compare the political decisions taken in the Russian Federation with the decisions taken in some European countries. Strategic documents that ensure national security of the Russian Federation by including the demographic agenda in political discourse are considered as a tool of political management. Results. The article assesses the effectiveness of political management in solving demographic problems and increasing the birth rate in the Russian Federation, identifies the stages of the formation of demographic policy in the Russian Federation in 1992–2019, as well as the features of the articulation of demographic problems in the political discourse of Russia, and describes demographic threats. The analysis of the regulatory framework as a tool for political management, demographic threats prevention, as well as the basis of the state strategy for increasing the birth rate in the Russian Federation allowed identifying policy decisions that can be used to develop new measures within the framework of programs to increase the birth rate in the Russian Federation.

The Value of the Family in the Eyes of Russians: A Sociological Analysis

“…Значимыми причинами недостатка времени, уделяемого детям, являются переработки, сверхзанятость (3,8 О наличии частых скандалов в семье сообщили только 3% россиян, о том, что ссоры бывают «время от времени» -13%, редко -34%, были ссоры, но теперь нет -8% и 41% говорят, что практически не бывает крупных скандалов в семье.…”

“…Рост рождаемости в качестве целевого показателя обозначен в Концепции демографической политики Российской Федерации на период до 2025 г. 2 Среди перечня показателей мониторинга и контроля реализации прогноза социально-экономического развития Российской Федерации на долгосрочный период 3 , на котором основывается система стратегического управления государством, также приведен индикатор -суммарный коэффициент рождаемости.…”

“…Институт семьи исследуется с разных точек зрения, но на основе отдельных теорий, таких как: философия, социология, демография, психология, право и ряд других. Несмотря на разные теоретико-методологические подходы, а также разные мировоззренческие позиции, отраженные в трудах ведущих ученых А. И. Антонова [1]; Т. С. Борисовой и М. М. Плоткина [2]; Е. Н. Васильевой, Т. К. Ростовской и А. Сулейманлы [3]; С. И. Голода [4]; С. А. Ильиных и Е. С. Логиновой [5]; Н. В. Печерской [6] и др., на наш взгляд, не представляется возможным полно и достоверно охарактеризовать трансформации моделей и ценностей семьи, определить границы семейного благополучия.…”