Demographic, ecological and physiological responses of ringed seals to an abrupt decline in sea ice availability

Ferguson, Steve; Young, Brent G.; Yurkowski, David J.; Anderson, Randi; Willing, Cornelia; Nielsen, Ole

doi:10.7287/peerj.preprints.2309v1

Cited by 10 publications

(22 citation statements)

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“…In contrast, southern seals invested more into offspring at an earlier age to take advantage of more productive environmental conditions (Stearns, ). In the south, seals cycled seasonally from high blubber storage (up to 60% of body mass) to very low body condition (30% blubber) that likely threatened their survival (Ferguson et al, ; Ferguson et al, ; Young & Ferguson, ). Progeny born into southern regions likely encountered good feeding conditions during the open‐water season allowing for faster growth and earlier reproduction, with shorter longevity as a tradeoff.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We were unable to measure maximum lifespan and instead used median age of seals harvested in autumn (August–December) as an index to compare age distribution of seals in the north versus south. Previous research has indicated that the autumn hunt during the open‐water season provides samples that are representative of the population age‐sex distribution (Ferguson, Young, Yurkowski, Anderson, & Willing, ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Do intraspecific life history patterns follow interspecific predictions? A test using latitudinal variation in ringed seals

et al. 2019

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Mammals adapted to unpredictable and low‐energy environments often evolve a “bet‐hedging” life history strategy characterized by less costly reproductive outputs over a longer and slower‐growing life. In contrast, species adapted to more predictable (i.e., low variation) and higher energy environments may evolve greater fecundity over a shorter and faster‐growing life. We tested whether this known interspecific pattern also occurs within a species. We compared life history traits of the ringed seal (Pusa hispida) in the Canadian High Arctic to those closer to the southern limit of the species' circumpolar distribution. We found that northern seals grew slower than southern seals (Brody growth coefficient), achieved a greater asymptotic body weight (82 and 69 kg vs. 74 and 54 kg female and male, respectively), reached sexual maturity later (6.1 years vs. 4.5 years), had lower fecundity (1.8 years vs. 1.3 years interbirth interval), longer average lifespan (5 years vs. 3 years median age), and greater movements (1,269 vs. 681 km). Mating systems also likely differed with northern seals showing morphological evidence of a promiscuous mating system with potential sperm competition as indicated by greater relative testes size. The northern region was also characterized by more unpredictable environmental timing of seasonal events, such as spring sea ice breakup. Life history variation between the intraspecific groups of seals appears to agree with interspecific patterns and provides a better understanding of how species' life history parameters shift in concert with environmental conditions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do intraspecific life history patterns follow interspecific predictions? A test using latitudinal variation in ringed seals

et al. 2019

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“…, , Ferguson et al. , ), but because we were using it as a proxy for the availability of a suitable pupping and nursing substrate, we used this definition and then studied sensitivity to it.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate change is expected to affect ringed seals in myriad ways, including effects due to changing ecosystem productivity, food availability, and predation pressure from polar bears (Laidre et al 2008, Kelly et al 2010. In addition to these projected gradual changes, episodic events, including disease, can cause abrupt demographic changes on shorter timescales (Ferguson et al 2017). We do not attempt to capture all of these factors here, but rather study the implications of two known mechanisms of demographic change (Kovacs et al 2011).…”

Section: Ringed Seal Populations Past and Futurementioning

confidence: 99%

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Ringed seal demography in a changing climate

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Caswell

Derocher

et al. 2019

Ecological Applications

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Climate change is affecting species’ distributions and abundances worldwide. Baseline population estimates, against which future observations may be compared, are necessary if we are to detect ecological change. Arctic sea ice ecosystems are changing rapidly and we lack baseline population estimates for many ice‐associated species. Provided we can detect them, changes in Arctic marine ecosystems may be signaled by changes in indicator species such as ringed seals (Pusa hispida). Ringed seal monitoring has provided estimates of survival and fertility rates, but these have not been used for population‐level inference. Using matrix population models, we synthesized existing demographic parameters to obtain estimates of historical ringed seal population growth and structure in Amundsen Gulf and Prince Albert Sound, Canada. We then formalized existing hypotheses about the effects of emerging environmental stressors (i.e., earlier spring ice breakup and reduced snow depth) on ringed seal pup survival. Coupling the demographic model to ice and snow forecasts available from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project resulted in projections of ringed seal population size and structure up to the year 2100. These projections showed median declines in population size ranging from 50% to 99%. Corresponding to these projected declines were substantial changes in population structure, with increasing proportions of ringed seal pups and adults and declining proportions of juveniles. We explored if currently collected, harvest‐based data could be used to detect the projected changes in population stage structure. Our model suggests that at a present sample size of 100 seals per year, the projected changes in stage structure would only be reliably detected by mid‐century, even for the most extreme climate models. This modeling process revealed inconsistencies in existing estimates of ringed seal demographic rates. Mathematical population models such as these can contribute both to understanding past population trends as well as predicting future ones, both of which are necessary if we are to detect and interpret future observations.

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Haul-out behaviour of Arctic ringed seals (Pusa hispida): inter-annual patterns and impacts of current environmental change

et al. 2018

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Hauling out onto a solid substrate is an integral part of most pinnipeds' activity budgets. Ringed seals (Pusa hispida) are an Arctic species that hauls out on sea ice routinely throughout the year. In 2006, a sudden change in the sea-ice regime occurred in Svalbard (Norway). Among other changes, the amount of land-fast ice declined sharply. This study examined the intra-and inter-annual haul-out behaviour of sixty ringed seals equipped with satellite-relay data loggers before (2002-2003 (n=22)) and after (2010-2012 (n=38)) the seaice decline occurred. In total, ringed seals hauled out 5% to 20% of the time (between August-May) with a mean haul-out duration of 3.3 h. The mean interval between haul-out events was 36 h, with a seasonal pattern that peaked in October (max 81 d). Haul-out probability was influenced by wind speed, temperature and solar hour to varying extents seasonally. After the sea-ice decline, intervals between haul-out events were significantly longer, and from December-March seals had shorter haul-out durations and hauled out a smaller proportion of the time. Haul-out probabilities in the winter and spring were more heavily influenced by weather conditions in 2010-2012 compared to 2002-2003, especially on the west coast where sea-ice declines have been greatest. These changes are likely due to ringed seals hauling out less often in snow lairs due to inadequate snow and ice conditions. Ringed seal haul-out behaviour will likely continue to be impacted negatively by ongoing environmental change, with concomitant impacts on their activity/energy budget and polar bears' hunting behaviour.

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Demographic, ecological and physiological responses of ringed seals to an abrupt decline in sea ice availability

Cited by 10 publications

References 0 publications

Do intraspecific life history patterns follow interspecific predictions? A test using latitudinal variation in ringed seals

Do intraspecific life history patterns follow interspecific predictions? A test using latitudinal variation in ringed seals

Ringed seal demography in a changing climate

Haul-out behaviour of Arctic ringed seals (Pusa hispida): inter-annual patterns and impacts of current environmental change

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