Demographic controls of future global fire risk

Knorr, Wolfgang; Arneth, Almut; Jiang, Leiwen

doi:10.1038/nclimate2999

Cited by 124 publications

(136 citation statements)

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“…However, several uncertainties persist. First, forest establishment and the start of growth during the spin-up phase was simulated using a detrended version of modern climate, as is usually performed in DGVM runs (Prentice et al, 2011;Pfeiffer et al, 2013;Yue et al, 2016;Knorr et al, 2016). This initial condition assumes that past relationships between climate, fire, and vegetation have been stationary through time and that variability in modern climate is representative of all variability that has been recorded over the past 1200 years (time of spin-up phase + 112 years of simulation).…”

Section: Uncertainties and Future Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…DGVM simulations may also be validated on decadal to millennial timescales by comparing them with historical records of vegetation or fire activity that have been reconstructed using indicators derived from pollen and charcoal, amongst others, which are deposited in lacustrine sediments . One of these models, the LundPotsdam-Jena (LPJ) model, has been the subject of numerous refinements over time, especially concerning simulations of fire patterns (Thonicke et al, 2010;Pfeiffer et al, 2013), and it has been validated in many regions worldwide, excluding eastern boreal Canada (e.g., Prentice et al, 2011;Pfeiffer et al, 2013;Yue et al, 2016;Knorr et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The pyrogeography of eastern boreal Canada from 1901 to 2012 simulated with the LPJ-LMfire model

et al. 2018

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Section: Uncertainties and Future Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The pyrogeography of eastern boreal Canada from 1901 to 2012 simulated with the LPJ-LMfire model

et al. 2018

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“…With more than half of the annual federal firefighting budget already being spent suppressing fires in California (4), a sustainable system of fire management requires approaches beyond active fire suppression (9). Predicting future fire activity is challenging because humans can alter fire regimes and fire-climate relationships even if climate becomes more conducive to fire (10). Changes in socioecological systems (SESs) can modulate or even override climatic effects on fire regimes through changing land use, ignitions, fuel conditions, or fire suppression (11).…”

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confidence: 99%

Socioecological transitions trigger fire regime shifts and modulate fire–climate interactions in the Sierra Nevada, USA, 1600–2015 CE

Taylor

Trouet

Skinner³

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

164

156

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Large wildfires in California cause significant socioecological impacts, and half of the federal funds for fire suppression are spent each year in California. Future fire activity is projected to increase with climate change, but predictions are uncertain because humans can modulate or even override climatic effects on fire activity. Here we test the hypothesis that changes in socioecological systems from the Native American to the current period drove shifts in fire activity and modulated fire-climate relationships in the Sierra Nevada. We developed a 415-y record (1600-2015 CE) of fire activity by merging a treering-based record of Sierra Nevada fire history with a 20th-century record based on annual area burned. Large shifts in the fire record corresponded with socioecological change, and not climate change, and socioecological conditions amplified and buffered fire response to climate. Fire activity was highest and fire-climate relationships were strongest after Native American depopulation-following mission establishment (ca. 1775 CE)-reduced the self-limiting effect of Native American burns on fire spread. With the Gold Rush and EuroAmerican settlement (ca. 1865 CE), fire activity declined, and the strong multidecadal relationship between temperature and fire decayed and then disappeared after implementation of fire suppression (ca. 1904 CE). The amplification and buffering of fire-climate relationships by humans underscores the need for parameterizing thresholds of human-vs. climate-driven fire activity to improve the skill and value of fire-climate models for addressing the increasing fire risk in California.anthropogenic landscapes | fire ecology | land use | regime shifts | climate variability A n increase in the extent of forest fires in the American West since the mid-1980s (1) has enhanced risks to lives, property, water quality, biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and other ecosystem services (2). This increasing wildfire trend has become even steeper during the past decade, with a higher number of large wildfires (>100 km 2 ) each year in each Western state compared with the annual average from 1980 to 2000 (3). The fire problem is particularly acute in California, where a history of fire suppression (4), climate change (1, 5), more extreme fire weather (6), expanding development (7), and massive wildfires (e.g., 2013 Rim Fire, 1,042 km 2 ) have caused significant socioecological impacts. Future area burned in California is projected to further increase with anthropogenic warming (8). With more than half of the annual federal firefighting budget already being spent suppressing fires in California (4), a sustainable system of fire management requires approaches beyond active fire suppression (9). Predicting future fire activity is challenging because humans can alter fire regimes and fire-climate relationships even if climate becomes more conducive to fire (10). Changes in socioecological systems (SESs) can modulate or even override climatic effects on fire regimes through changing land use, igniti...

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“…However, several uncertainties persist. First, forest establishment and the start of growth 25 during the "spinup" phase was simulated using a detrended version of modern climate, as is usually performed in DGVM runs (Prentice et al, 2011;Pfeiffer et al, 2013;Yue et al, 2015;Knorr et al, 2016). This initial condition assumes that past relationships between climate, fire, and vegetation have been stationary through time and that variability of modern climate is representative of all variability that has been recorded over the past 1200 years (time of spinup phase + 112 years of simulation).…”

Section: Uncertainties and Future Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…DGVM simulations also may be validated at decadal-to millennial-timescales by comparing them with 30 historical records of vegetation or fire activity that have been reconstructed using indicators derived from pollen and charcoal, amongst others, which are deposited in lacustrine sediments (Molinari et al, 2013). One of these models, the Lund-PostdamJena (LPJ) model has been the subject of numerous refinements over time, especially in simulations of fire patterns (Thonicke Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2017- Pfeiffer and Kaplan, 2012), and has been validated in many regions worldwide, excluding eastern boreal Canada for example (e.g., Prentice et al, 2011;Pfeiffer et al, 2013;Yue et al, 2015;Knorr et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The pyrogeography of eastern boreal Canada from 1901 to 2012 simulated with the LPJ-LMfire model

Chaste¹,

Girardin²,

Kaplan³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract. Wildland fires are the main natural disturbance shaping forest structure and composition in eastern boreal Canada. 15On average, more than 700,000 ha of forest burns annually, and causes as much as C$2.9 million worth of damage. Although we know that occurrence of fires depends upon the coincidence of favourable conditions for fire ignition, propagation and fuel availability, the interplay between these three drivers in shaping spatiotemporal patterns of fires in eastern Canada remains to be evaluated. The goal of this study was to reconstruct the spatiotemporal patterns of fire activity during the last century in eastern Canada's boreal forest as a function of changes in lightning ignition, climate and vegetation. We addressed this 20 objective using the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-LMfire, which we parametrized for four Plant Functional Types (PFTs) that correspond to the prevalent tree genera in eastern boreal Canada (Picea, Abies, Pinus, Populus). LPJ-LMfire was run with a monthly time-step from 1901 to 2012 on a 10-km 2 resolution grid covering the boreal forest from Manitoba to Newfoundland. Outputs of LPJ-LMfire were analyzed in terms of fire frequency, net primary productivity (NPP), and aboveground biomass. The predictive skills of LPJ-LMfire were examined by comparing our simulations of annual burn rates 25 and biomass with independent datasets. The simulation adequately reproduced the latitudinal gradient in fire frequency in Manitoba and the longitudinal gradient from Manitoba towards southern Ontario, as well as the temporal patterns present in independent fire histories. Nevertheless, the simulation led to underestimation and overestimation of the fire frequency at both the northern and southern limits of the boreal forest in Quebec. The general pattern of simulated total tree biomass also agreed well with observations, with the notable exception of overestimated biomass at the northern treeline, mainly for Picea PFT. In 30 these northern areas, the predictive ability of LPJ-LMfire is likely being affected by a low density of weather stations, which has led to underestimation of the strength of fire-weather interactions during extreme fire years and, therefore, vegetation consumption. Agreement of the spatiotemporal patterns of fire frequency with the observed data confirmed that fire in the study area is strongly ignition-limited. Overall, climate and lightning ignition variability at multi-decadal and -annual timeBiogeosciences Discuss., https://doi

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Demographic controls of future global fire risk

Cited by 124 publications

References 46 publications

The pyrogeography of eastern boreal Canada from 1901 to 2012 simulated with the LPJ-LMfire model

The pyrogeography of eastern boreal Canada from 1901 to 2012 simulated with the LPJ-LMfire model

Socioecological transitions trigger fire regime shifts and modulate fire–climate interactions in the Sierra Nevada, USA, 1600–2015 CE

The pyrogeography of eastern boreal Canada from 1901 to 2012 simulated with the LPJ-LMfire model

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