Demographic Changes in North Korea: 1993–2008

Abstract

Given the scarcity of population data, few demographic analyses have been conducted on population trends in North Korea. Using the 1993 and 2008 population and housing census data, we prospectively reconstruct population change in the country during the 15 intercensal years. Reconstruction of the population trends of North Korea enables us to assess the consistency of the available demographic evidence and to assess the demographic impact of the famine in the 1990s. According to the results of the population reconstruction and our counterfactual population projections, the famine caused between 240,000 and 420,000 total excess deaths—lower than the previous estimate of 600,000–1 million; and the human costs of the deteriorating living conditions between 1993 and 2008 may be estimated as 600,000 to 850,000 total excess deaths attributable to economic decline in the post‐Cold war era. The reconstructed population trends mirror the continuing deterioration of the living conditions in North Korea since the early 1990s.

A Study on the Population Structure of Democratic People’s Republic of Korea

“…GGB is one of most practical methods to evaluate the completeness of the census and death reporting system in a country with a closed population such as North Korea. We agree with Goodkind et al (2011) andSpoorenberg Schwekendiek (2012) in the assumption that the 2008 census is more complete than the 1993 census. Application of the GGB method on the 15-55 age group (where most of the military populations are distributed) produces 99.3% completeness of the 1993 census for male and 98.6% for females (relative to the 2008 census) and implies that the allocation of the military population in 1993 ( Figure 1(b)) is reliable.…”

“…This lower total population difference of 691,027 has been regarded as the military population (Adlakha and West, 1997;Spoorenberg and Schwekendiek, 2012). As Spoorenberg and Schwekendiek (2012) suggested, we apply the observed distribution of the 2008 military population to the total number of the 1993 military population under the assumption that the distribution of age-sex specific military population of 1993 is the same as 2008. We tabulate the resulting data with five-year age groups (i.e., 0-4, 5-9, .…”

“…Comprehensive analysis for the North Korean population was offered by Spoorenberg and Schwekendiek (2012). They demonstrated that official vital statistics (such as fertility and mortality) were reliable according to the consistency of the reconstructed and observed 2008 populations.…”

“…Lee (2004) estimated that the total number of famine deaths was 580,000∼690,000 from 1994 to 2000 using the population component method under the closed population assumption (i.e., no international migration). The estimates were revised downward to 500,000 and 600,000 (Goodkind et al, 2011) and to 240,000 and 420,000 (Spoorenberg and Schwekendiek, 2012).…”

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

“…Indeed, national statistical offices in the region assume that fertility in the region will stay very low (Basten 2013a). Fertility trends are considerably less certain in North Korea, where only limited data are irregularly released by the government and official institutions; Spoorenberg and Schwekendiek (2012) show the period TFR around replacement level in two Census years, 1993 (2.16) and 2008 (2.00), with a possible intermediate dip during the periods marked by famine and economic collapse. Rapid economic development, increasing level of education among women, their higher labour force participation and effective national family planning programs initiated in the 1960s (excluding Japan) are considered to be major forces behind the rapid fertility decline in all of these countries Tsuya et al 2009;McDonald 2009).…”