Democratization as an impetus for peace talks in civil wars

Arı, Barış

doi:10.1177/07388942221081792

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 78 publications

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“…These examples further illustrate the need to divorce the willingness to negotiate from the willingness to accept mediation (Melin and Svensson 2009). Considering that the determinants of negotiations is a central question (Greig and Regan 2008; Melin et al 2013; Clayton and Gleditsch 2014; Keels and Greig 2019; Arı 2022), a logical next step is to differentiate cases that denounce negotiation altogether from cases that are willing to negotiate but reject third-party mediators.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Peace Negotiations in Civil Conflicts: A New Dataset

Arı

2022

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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This article introduces the Peace Negotiations in Civil Conflicts (PNCC) dataset, which identifies whether a state-party and rival non-state armed group is in the formal negotiation phase of a peace process. The PNCC goes beyond recording instances of peace talks by offering a conceptual framework to identify when a government-rebel group dyad is at risk of formal negotiations. It explicitly considers issues central in event-history modelling, including censoring and the observation period. The PNCC also provides detailed information on negotiations, including the date and location of peace talks, and whether negotiations were bilateral or through mediation. The PNCC is the first source to distinguish mediated and non-mediated civil conflict negotiations under a single framework. Structured over the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset with global coverage for 1975-2013, the PNCC is integrable to commonly used civil war datasets.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Peace Negotiations in Civil Conflicts: A New Dataset

Arı

2022

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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Democratization, Foreign Military Intervention, and Rebel Fragmentation in Civil War: Evidence from the PKK Insurgency in Turkey

Erdoğdu

2024

Journal of Global Security Studies

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In this paper, by studying the fragmentation of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in 2004, I identify two distinct pathways to rebel fragmentation: one that is triggered by democratization in the home country (EU-anchored democratization in Turkey) and the other by the empowerment of a rival co-ethnic organization in a neighboring country through foreign military intervention (American invasion of Iraq and the empowerment of Iraqi Kurdish leadership). First, by expanding the room for nonviolent mobilization, democratization can result in an organizational fragmentation between soft-liners, who support laying down the arms, and hard-liners, who prefer the continuation of the armed insurgency under new circumstances. Second, foreign intervention in a neighboring country can radically change the distribution of power and empower an organization’s rival co-ethnic organization. This can lead some actors within the organization to rethink their alliances and advocate a better relationship with their rival co-ethnics and the intervening foreign power, resulting in organizational fragmentation over the organization’s external relationships. The paper broadly contributes to the literature on rebel fragmentation, the effects of democratization on civil war processes, international dynamics of civil wars, transborder ethnic-kin, and rebel alliances in civil wars.

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Democratization as an impetus for peace talks in civil wars

Cited by 2 publications

References 78 publications

Peace Negotiations in Civil Conflicts: A New Dataset

Peace Negotiations in Civil Conflicts: A New Dataset

Democratization, Foreign Military Intervention, and Rebel Fragmentation in Civil War: Evidence from the PKK Insurgency in Turkey

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