Democratization, Foreign Military Intervention, and Rebel Fragmentation in Civil War: Evidence from the PKK Insurgency in Turkey

Abstract

In this paper, by studying the fragmentation of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in 2004, I identify two distinct pathways to rebel fragmentation: one that is triggered by democratization in the home country (EU-anchored democratization in Turkey) and the other by the empowerment of a rival co-ethnic organization in a neighboring country through foreign military intervention (American invasion of Iraq and the empowerment of Iraqi Kurdish leadership). First, by expanding the room for nonviolent mobilization, democratization can result in an organizational fragmentation between soft-liners, who support laying down the arms, and hard-liners, who prefer the continuation of the armed insurgency under new circumstances. Second, foreign intervention in a neighboring country can radically change the distribution of power and empower an organization’s rival co-ethnic organization. This can lead some actors within the organization to rethink their alliances and advocate a better relationship with their rival co-ethnics and the intervening foreign power, resulting in organizational fragmentation over the organization’s external relationships. The paper broadly contributes to the literature on rebel fragmentation, the effects of democratization on civil war processes, international dynamics of civil wars, transborder ethnic-kin, and rebel alliances in civil wars.