Demand, supply, and restraint: Determinants of domestic water conflict and cooperation

Böhmelt, Tobias; Bernauer, Thomas; Buhaug, Halvard; Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Tribaldos, Theresa; Wischnath, Gerdis

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.11.018

Cited by 91 publications

(51 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…Ludwig et al 2011;Tir and Stinnett 2012;Böhmelt et al 2014;Kuzdas and Wiek 2014;Selby and Hoffmann 2014;Ide 2015) indicates both good agreement in terms of the utility of our indicators in understanding climate variability and water conflict links and a prospect to expand the indicators as data for other conflict-torn portions of the Lake become available.…”

Section: Prioritising Vulnerability Assessment In Climate and Water Cmentioning

confidence: 71%

“…Although the contested nature of the vulnerability concept is widely recognised, it cannot be assumed that there is broad consensus regarding what constitutes scientifically sound explanatory variables for climate and water conflict relations. In response to recent calls to uncover local dynamics of climate and environmental conflict interactions (Gemenne et al 2014;Böhmelt et al 2014), we present the CWCVI as a tool for exploring ordinary people's differentiated vulnerability and capacities to adapt to change. The tool resonates with livelihood perspectives and uses a normative framing consistent with the context, place and time-specific nature of both vulnerability and climate conflict analyses.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Mainstream writings (e.g. Böhmelt et al 2014;Selby and Hoffmann 2014) explore indicators that suggest a pathway linking climate change and water conflict. Yet the literature remains vague regarding how vulnerability analysis may enable identification of interacting variables that shape both the demand for and supply of water, including efforts to restrain water conflict in lakeside villages where climate extremes are a major threat.…”

Section: Framing Climate Conflict Vulnerability In Waterlimited Envirmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Yet applying a vulnerability lens to explain climate and water conflict link raises complex challenges. The link is not exclusively a collection of environmental (supply), institutional (restraint) and social (demand) drivers that can be understood purely in scientific or technical one-size-fitsall ways (Böhmelt et al 2014). It reflects a conundrum of underlying realities that are context, place and time specific, and contingent on an array of theoretical postulations regarding what indicators or metrics that researchers deem important (Buhaug 2015).…”

Section: Prioritising Vulnerability Assessment In Climate and Water Cmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Using a novel climate–water conflict vulnerability index to capture double exposures in Lake Chad

2016

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Climate variability is amongst an array of threats facing agricultural livelihoods, with its effects unevenly distributed. With resource conflict being increasingly recognised as one significant outcome of climate variability and change, understanding the underlying drivers that shape differential vulnerabilities in areas that are double-exposed to climate and conflict has great significance. Climate change vulnerability frameworks are rarely applied in water conflict research. This article presents a composite climatewater conflict vulnerability index based on a double exposure framework developed from advances in vulnerability and livelihood assessments. We apply the index to assess how the determinants of vulnerability can be useful in understanding climate variability and water conflict interactions and to establish how knowledge of the climateconflict linked context can shape interventions to reduce vulnerability. We surveyed 240 resource users (farmers, fishermen and pastoralists) in seven villages on the southeastern shores of Lake Chad in the Republic of Chad to collect data on a range of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity variables. Results suggest that pastoralists are more vulnerable in terms of climate-structured aggressive behaviour within a lake-based livelihoods context where all resource user groups show similar levels of exposure to climate variability. Our approach can be used to understand the human and environmental security components of vulnerability to climate change and to explore ways in which conflict-structured climate adaptation and climate-sensitive conflict management strategies can be integrated to reduce the vulnerability of populations in high-risk, conflict-prone environments.

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Section: Prioritising Vulnerability Assessment In Climate and Water Cmentioning

confidence: 71%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Framing Climate Conflict Vulnerability In Waterlimited Envirmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Prioritising Vulnerability Assessment In Climate and Water Cmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Using a novel climate–water conflict vulnerability index to capture double exposures in Lake Chad

2016

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“…While there is clearly potential for cross-border disagreements over water, the environmental policy and management literature suggests that water conflicts are surprisingly rare, especially at the international level (e.g., [6,80]). Transboundary rivers flowing between British Columbia (BC), Canada and Alaska (AK), United States are currently at particularly low risk of any such disagreements.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal flows of international British Columbia-Alaska rivers: The nonlinear influence of ocean-atmosphere circulation patterns

Fleming

Hood

Dahlke

et al. 2016

Advances in Water Resources

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a b s t r a c tThe northern portion of the Pacific coastal temperate rainforest (PCTR) is one of the least anthropogenically modified regions on earth and remains in many respects a frontier area to science. Rivers crossing the northern PCTR, which is also an international boundary region between British Columbia, Canada and Alaska, USA, deliver large freshwater and biogeochemical fluxes to the Gulf of Alaska and establish linkages between coastal and continental ecosystems. We evaluate interannual flow variability in three transboundary PCTR watersheds in response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). Historical hydroclimatic datasets from both Canada and the USA are analyzed using an up-to-date methodological suite accommodating both seasonally transient and highly nonlinear teleconnections. We find that streamflow teleconnections occur over particular seasonal windows reflecting the intersection of specific atmospheric and terrestrial hydrologic processes. The strongest signal is a snowmelt-driven flow timing shift resulting from ENSO-and PDO-associated temperature anomalies. Autumn rainfall runoff is also modulated by these climate modes, and a glacier-mediated teleconnection contributes to a late-summer ENSO-flow association. Teleconnections between AO and freshet flows reflect corresponding temperature and precipitation anomalies. A coherent NPGO signal is not clearly evident in streamflow. Linear and monotonically nonlinear teleconnections were widely identified, with less evidence for the parabolic effects that can play an important role elsewhere. The streamflow teleconnections did not vary greatly between hydrometric stations, presumably reflecting broad similarities in watershed characteristics. These results establish a regional foundation for both transboundary water management and studies of long-term hydroclimatic and environmental change.Published by Elsevier Ltd.

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A Bayesian framework for studying climate anomalies and social conflicts

2022

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Climate change stands to have a profound impact on human society, and on political and other conflicts in particular. However, the existing literature on understanding the relation between climate change and societal conflicts has often been criticized for using data that suffer from sampling and other biases, often resulting from being too narrowly focused on a small region of space or a small set of events. These studies have likewise been critiqued for not using suitable statistical tools that (i) address spatio-temporal dependencies, (ii) obtain probabilistic uncertainty quantification, and (iii) lead to consistent statistical inferences. In this article, we propose a Bayesian framework to address these challenges. We find that there is a strong and substantial association between temperature anomalies on aggregated material conflicts and verbal conflicts globally. Going deeper, we also find significant evidence to suggest that positive temperature anomalies are associated with social conflict primarily through government-civilian and government-rebel material conflicts, as in civilian protests, rebel attacks against government resources, or acts of state repression. We find that majority of the conflicts associated with climate anomalies are triggered by rebel actors, and others react to such acts of conflict. Our results exhibit considerably nuanced relationships between temperature deviations and social conflicts that have not been noticed in previous studies. Methodologically, the proposed Bayesian framework can help social scientists explore similar domains involving large-scale spatial and temporal dependencies. Our code and a synthetic dataset has been made publicly available.

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Demand, supply, and restraint: Determinants of domestic water conflict and cooperation

Cited by 91 publications

References 59 publications

Using a novel climate–water conflict vulnerability index to capture double exposures in Lake Chad

Using a novel climate–water conflict vulnerability index to capture double exposures in Lake Chad

Seasonal flows of international British Columbia-Alaska rivers: The nonlinear influence of ocean-atmosphere circulation patterns

A Bayesian framework for studying climate anomalies and social conflicts

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