Seasonal flows of international British Columbia-Alaska rivers: The nonlinear influence of ocean-atmosphere circulation patterns

Fleming, Sean W.; Hood, Eran; Dahlke, H. E.; O’Neel, S.

doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2015.10.007

Cited by 19 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 74 publications

(120 reference statements)

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“…There is a growing consensus that long-term changes in temperature and rainfall may alter the hydrometeorological and ecological processes of a region [11]. Over the past few years, many studies have been conducted worldwide to assess the changing trends in temperature and rainfall for different countries such as the USA, Africa, India, Norwegian Arctic, Nepal, Northwestern Himalaya [10,[12][13][14][15], using different statistical models and methods.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating Snow Cover and Hydrometeorological Trends in Contrasting Hydrological Regimes of the Upper Indus Basin

2018

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Abstract:The Upper Indus basin (UIB) is characterized by contrasting hydrometeorological behaviors; therefore, it has become pertinent to understand hydrometeorological trends at the sub-watershed level. Many studies have investigated the snow cover and hydrometeorological modeling at basin level but none have reported the spatial variability of trends and their magnitude at a sub-basin level. This study was conducted to analyze the trends in the contrasting hydrological regimes of the snow and glacier-fed river catchments of the Hunza and Astore sub-basins of the UIB. Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope methods were used to study the main trends and their magnitude using MODIS snow cover information (2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) and hydrometeorological data. The results showed that in the Hunza basin, the river discharge and temperature were significantly (p ≤ 0.05) decreased with a Sen's slope value of −2.541 m 3 ·s −1 ·year −1 and −0.034 • C·year −1 , respectively, while precipitation data showed a non-significant (p ≥ 0.05) increasing trend with a Sen's slope value of 0.023 mm·year −1 . In the Astore basin, the river discharge and precipitation are increasing significantly (p ≤ 0.05) with a Sen's slope value of 1.039 m 3 ·s −1 ·year −1 and 0.192 mm·year −1 , respectively. The snow cover analysis results suggest that the Western Himalayas (the Astore basin) had a stable trend with a Sen's slope of 0.07% year −1 and the Central Karakoram region (the Hunza River basin) shows a slightly increasing trend with a Sen's slope of 0.394% year −1 . Based on the results of this study it can be concluded that since both sub-basins are influenced by different climatological systems (monsoon and westerly), the results of those studies that treat the Upper Indus basin as one unit in hydrometeorological modeling should be used with caution. Furthermore, it is suggested that similar studies at the sub-basin level of the UIB will help in a better understanding of the Karakoram anomaly.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating Snow Cover and Hydrometeorological Trends in Contrasting Hydrological Regimes of the Upper Indus Basin

2018

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“…The April 1 SWE reconstruction indicates that there has been considerable variability in SWE levels over the past two centuries in the Stikine Basin, which is driven in part by multidecadal shifts in the PDO. The results of this study complement and expand on the existing understanding of the region's hydroclimate dynamics (Fleming et al, ). It demonstrates that the SWE values recorded in 2016 were likely among the lowest experienced within the past 200 years.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Of particular concern is the loss of mountain snow accumulation and related reductions in the snow‐ and glacier‐derived water supply, which are among the primary consequences expected from climate warming (Stewart, Cayan, & Dettinger, ). Knowledge about the possible range of natural hydroclimate variability at a variety of timescales is critical for the design and implementation of management strategies that balance riverine ecosystem services, such as recreation and fish habitat, with increasing economic and social demands (Fleming, Hood, Dahlke, & O'Neel, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Understanding the influence of the long‐term climate shifts affecting variations in snowpack accumulation is a crucial first step towards predicting how watersheds in the Stikine Region may respond to ongoing climate changes. Characterizing the climatic controls on hydrological variability is therefore a priority for developing the baseline information required for water and ecosystem management in this transboundary area (Fleming et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…natural hydroclimate variability at a variety of timescales is critical for the design and implementation of management strategies that balance riverine ecosystem services, such as recreation and fish habitat, with increasing economic and social demands (Fleming, Hood, Dahlke, & O'Neel, 2016).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Tree‐ring records unveil long‐term influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on snowpack dynamics in the Stikine River basin, northern British Columbia

Welsh

Smith

Coulthard

2019

Hydrological Processes

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Long hydroclimate records are essential elements for the assessment and management of changing freshwater resources. These records are especially important in transboundary watersheds where international cooperation is required in the joint planning and management process of shared basins. Dendrochronological techniques were used to develop a multicentury record of April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) for the Stikine River basin in northern British Columbia, Canada, from moisture‐sensitive white spruce (Picea glauca) tree rings. Explaining 43% of the instrumental SWE variability, to our knowledge, this research represents the first attempt to develop long‐term snowpack reconstructions in northern British Columbia. The results indicated that 15 extreme low April 1 SWE events occurred from 1789 to the beginning of the instrumental record in 1974. The reconstruction record also shows that the occurrence of hydrological extremes in the Stikine River basin is characterized by persistent below‐average periods in SWE consistent with phase shifts of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Spectral analyses indicate a very distinct in‐phase (positive) relationship between the multidecadal frequencies of variability (~40 years) extracted from the SWE tree‐ring reconstruction and other reconstructed winter and spring PDO indices. Comparison of the reconstructed SWE record with other tree‐ring‐derived PDO proxy records shows coherence at multidecadal frequencies of variability. The research has significant implications for regional watershed management by highlighting the hydrological response of the Stikine River basin to prior climate changes.

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Flood seasonality across Scandinavia—Evidence of a shifting hydrograph?

Matti

Dahlke

Dieppois

et al. 2017

Hydrological Processes

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Fluvial flood events have substantial impacts on humans, both socially and economically, as well as on ecosystems (e.g., hydroecology and pollutant transport). Concurrent with climate change, the seasonality of flooding in cold environments is expected to shift from a snowmelt-dominated to a rainfall-dominated flow regime. This would have profound impacts on water management strategies, that is, flood risk mitigation, drinking water supply, and hydro power. In addition, cold climate hydrological systems exhibit complex interactions with catchment properties and largescale climate fluctuations making the manifestation of changes difficult to detect and predict.Understanding a possible change in flood seasonality and defining related key drivers therefore is essential to mitigate risk and to keep management strategies viable under a changing climate.This study explores changes in flood seasonality across near-natural catchments in Scandinavia using circular statistics and trend tests. Results indicate strong seasonality in flooding for snowmelt-dominated catchments with a single peak occurring in spring and early summer (March through June), whereas flood peaks are more equally distributed throughout the year for catchments located close to the Atlantic coast and in the south of the study area. Flood seasonality has changed over the past century seen as decreasing trends in summer maximum daily flows and increasing winter and spring maximum daily flows with 5-35% of the catchments showing significant changes at the 5% significance level. Seasonal mean daily flows corroborate those findings with higher percentages (5-60%) of the catchments showing statistically significant changes. Alterations in annual flood occurrence also point towards a shift in flow regime from snowmelt-dominated to rainfall-dominated with consistent changes towards earlier timing of the flood peak (significant for 25% of the catchments). Regionally consistent patterns suggest a first-order climate control as well as a local second-order catchment control, which causes inter-seasonal variability in the streamflow response.

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Seasonal flows of international British Columbia-Alaska rivers: The nonlinear influence of ocean-atmosphere circulation patterns

Cited by 19 publications

References 74 publications

Investigating Snow Cover and Hydrometeorological Trends in Contrasting Hydrological Regimes of the Upper Indus Basin

Investigating Snow Cover and Hydrometeorological Trends in Contrasting Hydrological Regimes of the Upper Indus Basin

Tree‐ring records unveil long‐term influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on snowpack dynamics in the Stikine River basin, northern British Columbia

Flood seasonality across Scandinavia—Evidence of a shifting hydrograph?

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