Demand Forecasting and Inventory Control

Lewis, Colin D.

doi:10.4324/9781856179898

Cited by 19 publications

(13 citation statements)

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“…<10% is considered highly accurate, 10-20% is considered good, 20-50% is reasonable, and >50% is inaccurate [24]. Thus, the validation percentage determined in this model is less than 10%.…”

Section: Scenariomentioning

confidence: 93%

Tsunami Mitigation Strategy at Watu Ulo Beach Based on Numerical Modeling Using Delft3D-Flow

Sofiana

Wiyono²,

Nurtjahjaningtyas³

2022

UKaRsT

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The coastal area of Watu Ulo Beach in Jember has great resource potential but also the potential for major disasters, such as a tsunami. Tsunamis can cause casualties and destroy buildings. Thus, it is important to assess the possibility of future tsunami disasters. This study aims to simulate a tsunami at Watu Ulo Beach using Delft3D-Flow to analyze the possibility of affected areas. The tsunami modeling is based on two simulations, namely Scenario 1 as model validation using the characteristics of the 1994 Banyuwangi earthquake. Model validation calculation uses the MAPE method <10%. Scenario 2, modeling the southern Java megathrust earthquake, was analyzed to obtain the time and wave height as well as tsunami run-up and inundation, visualizing the area affected by Watu Ulo Beach. The simulation results show that the tsunami wave height at Watu Ulo Beach reached 12.57 m with a travel time of 29 minutes. The run-up elevation was 9.21 m, and the inundation distance was 2.38 km from the Watu Ulo coastline, indicating that the tsunami caused substantial damage. As an area affected by the tsunami, Sumberejo Village has an inundation area of 634.68 ha, and Sabrang Village has an area of 250.03 ha. The temporary evacuation location for Watu Ulo Beach is set at Tanjung Papuma Street via the shortest route of 0.57 km from the assembly point. Based on the results of this study can be used as a reference for determining temporary evacuation routes and locations for tsunami disaster mitigation in coastal areas.

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Section: Scenariomentioning

confidence: 93%

Tsunami Mitigation Strategy at Watu Ulo Beach Based on Numerical Modeling Using Delft3D-Flow

Sofiana

Wiyono²,

Nurtjahjaningtyas³

2022

UKaRsT

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“…MAPE represents mean absolute percentage error as mentioned in previous sections. According to Lewis, a MAPE result below 10 % is considered a good forecast [15].…”

Section: Results and Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Demand forecasting: a comparison between the Holt-Winters, trend analysis and decomposition models

2017

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Preliminary communicationIn food production industry, forecasting the timing of demands is crucial in planning production scheduling to satisfy customer needs on time. In the literature, several statistical models have been used in demand forecasting in Food and Beverage (F&B) industry and the choice of the most suitable forecasting model remains a central concern. In this context, this article aims to compare the performances between Trend Analysis, Decomposition and Holt-Winters (HW) models for the prediction of a time series formed by a group of jam and sherbet product demands. Data comprised the series of monthly sales from January 2013 to December 2014 obtained from a private company. As performance measures, metric analysis of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is used. In this study, the HW and Decomposition models obtained better results regarding the performance metrics. Keywords: decomposition; demand forecasting; food industry; Holt-Winters; time seriesPredviđanje potražnje: usporedba između Holt-Winters modela, analize trenda i modela dekompozicije Prethodno priopćenje U industriji proizvodnje hrane, predviđanje vremena potražnje je bitno u planiranju proizvodnje kako bi se na vrijeme zadovoljile potrebe kupaca. U literaturi se koristi nekoliko statističkih modela za planiranje potražnje u industriji hrane i pića, a izbor najpogodnijeg modela od osnovnog je značaja. U tom kontekstu cilj je ovoga rada usporedba primjenljivosti modela analize trenda, dekompozicije i Holt-Winters (HW) modela za predviđanje vremenskih serija u potražnji đema i voćnih sokova. Obrađeni su podaci jednog privatnog poduzeća od siječnja 2013 do prosinca 2014. Uspješnost se odredila metričkom analizom Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) (srednji apsolutni postotak greške). U ovom su radu najbolji rezultati u planiranju potražnje postignuti modelima Holt-Winters i dekompozicije.

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“…It is also a method that firms use to organize, store, and replace inventory, to keep an adequate supply of goods and at the same time, minimize costs (Daveshwar and Dhawal (2013). A more focused definition of inventory control takes into account, the science-based, methodical practice of not only verifying a firm's inventory but also maximizing the amount of profit from the least amount of investment on inventory without affecting customer satisfaction (Lewis, 2012).…”

Section: Concept Of Inventory Controlmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimizing profit maximization through effective inventory control practice of manufacturing firms in Nigeria

Ekakitie

Kifordu

Nwaebuni

2022

JGSS

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The study looked at the optimization of profit through inventory control practices of firms in our ever-competitive environment. Four inventory control practices formed the objectives with two hypotheses raised to guide the study. The study was empirically analysed. The findings revealed a positive significant relationship between the objectives, Just–In–Time, Material Requirement Planning (MRP), Economic Order Quantity and safety stock on profit maximization. The study recommended that an Effective (well-functioning) inventory control system ensures there is a balance between having just enough materials or products in the stores/warehouse and keeping the stock cost under control so that the firm can maximize its profits at all times.

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Demand Forecasting and Inventory Control

Cited by 19 publications

References 0 publications

Tsunami Mitigation Strategy at Watu Ulo Beach Based on Numerical Modeling Using Delft3D-Flow

Tsunami Mitigation Strategy at Watu Ulo Beach Based on Numerical Modeling Using Delft3D-Flow

Demand forecasting: a comparison between the Holt-Winters, trend analysis and decomposition models

Optimizing profit maximization through effective inventory control practice of manufacturing firms in Nigeria

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