Delphi: A brief look backward and forward

Linstone, Harold A.; Turoff, Murray

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2010.09.011

Cited by 391 publications

(287 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Three methods were used to estimate the population: an indirect approach, 12 a representative population survey, 13 and a modified Delphi technique. [14][15][16] The utility of each method is discussed and the estimates are triangulated to provide a single estimate of YBMSM living on the SSC.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the Number of Young Black Men who have Sex with Men (YBMSM) on the South Side of Chicago: Towards HIV Elimination within US Urban Communities

et al. 2013

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The rate of HIV infection among young Black men who have sex with men (YBMSM) aged 16-29 is increasing significantly in the United States. Prevention in this population would considerably impact future health-care resources given the need for lifelong antiretrovirals. A YBMSM population estimate is needed to assist HIV prevention program planning. This analysis estimates the number of YBMSM aged 16-29 living on the south side of Chicago (SSC), the Chicago HIV epicenter, as the first step in eliminating HIV in this population. Three methods were utilized to estimate the number of YBMSM in the SSC. First, an indirect approach following the formula a=k/b; where a = the estimated number of YBMSM, k = the average YBMSM HIV prevalence estimate, and b=the YBMSM population-based HIV seropositivity rate. Second, data from the most recent National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) was used to estimate the proportion of Black men who report having sex with a man. Third, a modified Delphi approach was used, which averaged community expert estimates. The indirect approach yielded an average estimate of 11.7 % YBMSM, the NSFG yielded a 4.2 % (95 % CI 2.28-6.21) estimate, and the modified Delphi approach yielded estimates of 3.0 % (2.3-3.6), 16.8 % (14.5-19.1), and 25 % (22.0-27.0); an average of 14.9 %. The crude average of the three methods was 10.2 %. Applied to SSC, this results to 5,578 YBMSM. The estimate of 5,578 YBMSM represents a group that can be feasibly reached with HIV prevention efforts. Population estimates of those most at risk for HIV will help public health officials allocate resources, offering potential for elimination of new HIV cases.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the Number of Young Black Men who have Sex with Men (YBMSM) on the South Side of Chicago: Towards HIV Elimination within US Urban Communities

et al. 2013

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“…The results of a Delphi study may provide a "snapshot of expert opinion, for that group, at a particular time, which can be used to inform thinking, practice and theory" [37]. Limstone and Turoff [39] define the Delphi method as "a method for structuring a group communication process so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complex problem." They also point out that the method requires "some feedback of individual contributions of information and knowledge; some assessment of the group judgment or view; some opportunity for individuals to revise views; and some degree of anonymity for the individual responses".…”

Section: Delphi Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy Performance Indicators in the Swedish Building Procurement Process

2017

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Abstract:In Sweden, all new buildings need to comply with the National Board of Housing, Building and Planning's requirement on specific purchased energy (kWh/m 2 ). Accordingly, this indicator is often used to set design criteria in the building procurement process. However, when energy use is measured in finished buildings, the measurements often deviate significantly from the design calculations. The measured specific purchased energy does not necessarily reflect the responsibility of the building contractor, as it is influenced by the building operation, user behavior and climate. Therefore, Swedish building practitioners may prefer other indicators for setting design criteria in the building procurement process. The aim of this study was twofold: (i) to understand the Swedish building practitioners' perspectives and opinions on seven building energy performance indicators (envelope air leakage, U-values for different building parts, average U-value, specific heat loss, heat loss coefficient, specific net energy, and specific purchased energy); and (ii) to understand the consequences for the energy performance of multi-family buildings of using the studied indicators to set criteria in the procurement process. The study involved a Delphi approach and simulations of a multi-family case study building. The studied indicators were discussed in terms of how they may meet the needs of the building practitioners when used to set building energy performance criteria in the procurement process.

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“…This method has been successfully followed in radiotherapy research as well as other research fields. [36][37][38][39][40][41][42] Since no patients were involved in our surveys, the law in the Netherlands does not require ethics clearance. Figure 1.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How to measure innovation in radiotherapy: an application of the Delphi method

Jacobs

Boersma

Dekker

et al. 2015

JHA

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Objective: Innovation is an important driver for improving the quality of health care, yet a tension exists between innovation and providing cost-effective health care. To develop strategies that promote innovation, parameters are needed that are indicative of innovation. However, no recognised indicators of innovation in radiotherapy are currently available. The aim of this study is to fill that gap by providing a framework for measuring innovation. This should facilitate future multi-centric studies on strategies aimed at promoting innovation in radiotherapy. Methods: We applied the Delphi method in four rounds. The chairpersons of all Dutch radiotherapy departments were asked to suggest indicators. The resulting inventory was assessed by a number of Dutch radiation oncologists, medical physicists and managers. After implementig a cut-off score on suitability and measurability, we asked Dutch professors on innovation to assess the remaining indicators. Finally, the chairpersons reached consensus. Results: On the basis of the Delphi study, we derived 13 indicators in four categories, more specific product innovation, technology innovation, market innovation and organisational innovation, for measuring both incremental and radical innovations in radiotherapy; these indicators are also suitable for measuring the generation and adoption of innovations. Conclusions: We were successful in reaching consensus amongst the experts on indicators that measure innovations in radiotherapy. The developed tool will be used to investigate the relation between innovation and possible factors inhibiting or stimulating successful innovation and between the level of innovation and its effects.

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Delphi: A brief look backward and forward

Cited by 391 publications

References 15 publications

Estimating the Number of Young Black Men who have Sex with Men (YBMSM) on the South Side of Chicago: Towards HIV Elimination within US Urban Communities

Estimating the Number of Young Black Men who have Sex with Men (YBMSM) on the South Side of Chicago: Towards HIV Elimination within US Urban Communities

Energy Performance Indicators in the Swedish Building Procurement Process

How to measure innovation in radiotherapy: an application of the Delphi method

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