Deflection driven evolution of asteroid impact risk under large uncertainties

Research and Analysis for Planetary Defense In Situ Spacecraft Missions to Near-Earth Objects

“…At the same time, computer models will be used to estimate the range of possible impact effects if the NEO were to strike Earth. The NEO's orbital state and physical properties, in particular, are crucial inputs to the estimation of impact risk (Mathias et al, 2017) and to predict mitigation mission outcome (Rumpf et al, 2020;Eggl et al, 2015). The analytical results of these planetary defense calculations must be statistical and include uncertainties in the available information for the NEO.…”

“…It is also possible to study the expected outcome of mitigation missions using analytical models that estimate the deflection impulse based on NEO and mission properties (Dearborn et al, 2020;Housen & Holsapple, 2011). Results inform the mitigation mission design process by providing feedback on adequate sizing of the mitigation mission in order to reduce the impact risk to manageable levels while taking into account the full uncertainty range in asteroid properties and mitigation mission outcome (Rumpf et al, 2020). This also includes investigation of asteroid disruption consequences.…”

From impact refugees to deterritorialized states: foresighting extreme legal-policy cases in asteroid impact scenarios

“…A modest yield standoff burst or an unexpected response might not destroy the asteroid but produce fragments, which could be gravitationally bound and still on a collision path [40]. This situation would hinder further deflection attempts and threaten new regions instead of eliminating the danger [16]. Moreover, the most optimal method of deflection (e.g., high yield standoff bursts) could exacerbate nuclear tensions [41].…”

“…In addition, responsiveness will be constrained by the time of discovery [15], which is a random factor. This lack of knowledge, together with the inherent inaccuracies of this type of astrodynamics calculations [16], turn the collision threat context into an unpredictable scenario.…”

Lessons Learned from NASA’s DART Impact about Disrupting Rubble-pile Asteroids

“…Upon detecting a potentially hazardous asteroid heading toward Earth, the immediate priority lies in determining our course of action. This pivotal decision relies on a thorough analysis of the asteroid's size, composition, and trajectory (e.g., Rumpf et al 2020). Different asteroids may require different techniques and energies to deflect them, and a deflection strategy is usually favored over disruption, where at least half of the target's original mass is ejected and leads to the creation of a cloud of potentially hazardous fragments with uncertain size.…”