Definition and Demonstration of a Methodology for Validating Aircraft Trajectory Predictors

Abstract

This paper presents a new methodology for validating an aircraft trajectory predictor, inspired by the lessons learned from a number of field trials, flight tests and simulation experiments for the development of trajectory-predictor-based automation. The methodology introduces new techniques and a new multi-staged approach to reduce the effort in identifying and resolving validation failures, avoiding the potentially large costs associated with failures during a single-stage, pass/fail approach. As a case study, the validation effort performed by the Federal Aviation Administration for its En Route Automation Modernization (ERAM) system is analyzed to illustrate the real-world applicability of this methodology. During this validation effort, ERAM initially failed to achieve six of its eight requirements associated with trajectory prediction and conflict probe. The ERAM validation issues have since been addressed, but to illustrate how the methodology could have benefited the FAA effort, additional techniques are presented that could have been used to resolve some of these issues. Using data from the ERAM validation effort, it is demonstrated that these new techniques could have identified trajectory prediction error sources that contributed to several of the unmet ERAM requirements.

Trajectory Predictor and Conflict Detection Figures of Merit for a Performance-Based Adaptive Air Traffic Monitoring System

“…Concerning the link between TP and CDR, ref. [27] proposed a methodology for the functional verification and performance validation of TPs. The proposed process categorises TP requirements into two groups: direct and indirect.…”

“…Ref. [27] highlighted the difficulty in validating indirect TP requirements using recorded radar track data, primarily due to controller-issued clearances for deconfliction, which complicate the computation of false alerts and positive alerts. Therefore, ref.…”

“…Therefore, ref. [27] proposed a validation approach relying on simulations that have a high level of fidelity, although the cost is expensive.…”

High Confidence Intervals Applied to Aircraft Altitude Prediction

“…The literature on ground-based aircraft trajectory prediction is fairly large, and one may refer to [3] for a literature survey on the subject or [4] for the statistical analysis and validation of trajectory predictors. Concerning the prediction model itself, most research studies focus on point-mass models of the aircraft dynamics.…”