Decision support system to design feasible high-frequency Motorways of the Sea: A new perspective for public commitment

Juan, Carmen; Olmos, F.; Pérez, Eva María Domínguez

doi:10.1080/0013791x.2016.1147109

Cited by 3 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…When being implemented properly, CRFs can provide significant insights into the changes in the risk profile and bring additional strategic and operational value [58][59][60]. CRFs have been adopted widely in the fields of financing, enterprise management, banking, and e-business [61,62]. Under the context of RVR in highway PPP projects, CRFs can be used as a tool to predict the change of RVR and allow for proactive intervention before the project is transferred [15,16].…”

Section: Risk Management and Rvr In Pppmentioning

confidence: 99%

Process‐Based Identification of Critical Factors for Residual Value Risk in China′s Highway PPP Projects

Zheng

Yuan

et al. 2019

Advances in Civil Engineering

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Although the Chinese government at all levels has increasingly embraced Public-Private Partnership (PPP) as their preferred approach to deliver large-scale infrastructure since 2014, residual value risk (RVR) has been ignored in PPP practice. To systematically explore the critical risk factors (CRFs) responsible for measuring RVR in highway PPP projects, this paper proposes and refines a conceptual model composed of two risk dimensions (four risk categories) and 29 indicators through process-based viewpoint. Through literature review and expert interview, a structured questionnaire was developed to collect responses with rich working experience in construction industry or highway PPP projects. The refined measurement model with 21 CRFs was validated through mean value analysis (MVA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) performed by SPSS 23.0 and AMOS 23.0, respectively. The findings indicate that 21 CRFs are significant in influencing RVR of highway PPP projects. Moreover, RVR from system dimension is mainly concentrating on institutional environment, macroeconomy, and relationship aspects, whereas financing in preconstruction, quality in construction, and market demand in operation are the most significant CRFs in nonsystem dimension. Furthermore, there is an accumulative exposure of RVR during the project process, especially in preconstruction and operation. This paper sheds light on the significance of lifecycle management on RVR and provides a practical approach for measuring RVR and implementing sustainable practice in highway or other transportation PPP projects.

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Section: Risk Management and Rvr In Pppmentioning

confidence: 99%

Process‐Based Identification of Critical Factors for Residual Value Risk in China′s Highway PPP Projects

Zheng

Yuan

et al. 2019

Advances in Civil Engineering

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“…Joint Monte Carlo simulation of such processes leads to five-dimensional scenario spaces at each one of the agreed decision dates. Then, using the methodology described in Juan et al (2012, 2016), a tree structure is built so that each node in the tree contains a possible combination of outcomes for the processes mentioned before while scenarios at consecutive decision dates are connected by suitable transition probabilities.…”

Section: Risk Analysis Of the Optionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, despite the strong commitment of public agents in a PPEJV, this may not be enough to get the involvement of private agents due to the duration of the initial period of heavy losses, which may last up to ten years in a prototypical MoS (Juan et al , 2016). So, provisions are included in the PPEJV deal for regulating an eventual additional public support to the private partner(s) through public funds.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Such Monte Carlo simulation leads to a five-dimensional scenario space at each decision date. Using the methodology described in Juan et al (2016), a tree structure is built out from such scenario spaces so that each node in the tree contains a possible combination of outcomes from the aforementioned processes while scenarios at consecutive decision dates are connected by suitable transition probabilities. Cashflows at each scenario are calculated by solving an optimization problem where a specifically designed cashflow function is maximized while providing us with the optimal fleet operating the MoS.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Having information not only on cashflows but also on the fleet operating at each scenario is essential for valuing the proposed restatement of ownership clauses. Hereafter, we will refer to such tree as flexible strategic planning (FSP) tree in accordance with Juan et al (2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Public–private equity joint ventures and risk transfers in motorways of the sea

Juan

Olmos

2019

BEPAM

Self Cite

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present a new scheme of public–private partnership (PPP) within the framework of motorways of the sea (MoS) similar to that of an equity joint venture along with a methodology for valuing risk transfers arising from options embedded in the clauses included in such agreement. Design/methodology/approach The architecture of the proposed PPP is an adaptation to the scope of a MoS of collaborative schemes commonly used in industry such as equity joint ventures. The methodology for valuing options involved making use of a valuation tree of optimal cashflows along with algorithm designs from the field of financial and real options. Findings The proposed structure of public–private equity joint venture (PPEJV) increases the stability of private–public collaboration as compared with standard PPPs, so as to achieve the desired modal shift. The analyzed case study shows how the methodology provides valuable numerical information for both negotiating partners and policy makers. Practical implications This study provides a quantitative tool for policy makers to redefine the role that public agents and public funds should play in a future sustainable mobility model. Originality/value The originality of the authors’ contribution to the field of PPPs in transport is triple. First, there is no precedent in the literature on PPPs of an architecture similar to that of the proposed PPEJV. Second, unlike the usual practice in the valuation of financial or real options, no prior structure is assumed for modelling the behaviour of cashflows. Third, the type of options addressed is not usual neither in the real options literature in general nor in the valuation of guarantee mechanisms included in PPPs in particular.

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Exploring Key Indicators of Residual Value Risks in China’s Public–Private Partnership Projects

Yuan

Xia

et al. 2018

J. Manage. Eng.

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Decision support system to design feasible high-frequency Motorways of the Sea: A new perspective for public commitment

Cited by 3 publications

References 16 publications

Process‐Based Identification of Critical Factors for Residual Value Risk in China′s Highway PPP Projects

Process‐Based Identification of Critical Factors for Residual Value Risk in China′s Highway PPP Projects

Public–private equity joint ventures and risk transfers in motorways of the sea

Exploring Key Indicators of Residual Value Risks in China’s Public–Private Partnership Projects

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