Decision Modes in Complex Task Environments

Steigenberger, Norbert; Lübcke, Thomas; Fiala, Heather; Riebschläger, Alina

doi:10.1201/9781315116303

Cited by 6 publications

(6 citation statements)

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“…Complexity in crisis and emergency operations may also be related to responsive processes that connect people's interactions and behaviours with the change and unpredictability of social realities (Johannessen, 2018). It may be defined by the potentially incomplete or uncertain cues−outcomes relationship the decision‐makers need to base their judgements (Kahneman & Klein, 2009; Steigenberger et al, 2017; Tversky & Kahneman, 1974). The overall emergency preparedness picture is often characterized by a diversity of actors who take care of different parts of emergency preparedness (Moynihan, 2008).…”

Section: Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Exercise design for interagency collaboration training: The case of maritime nuclear emergency management tabletop exercises

Elvegård,

Andreassen

2023

Contingencies & Crisis Mgmt

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In this paper, we explore a concept of exercise design within emergency management competence development. The paper presents recommendations for exercise design aspects that may be suitable for gaining collaboration skills and knowledge that responders need in unknown events of high complexity. This study explores the practice of tabletop exercises with complex scenarios that engage participants to discover organizational roles and responsibility division in collaborative action. Empirically, we base our analysis on maritime search and rescue nuclear preparedness exercises in the Arctic seas. We focus on elements that are essential for learners to increase their knowledge of operational complexity and collaborative performance, including understanding one's own and others' roles and responsibilities, formation of interagency teams, their boundaries and interaction between authorities and levels, mutual recognition of risks and learning about resource capacities and their limitations. The study draws conclusions on aspects that are critical for designing emergency management tabletop exercises, in particularly discussions in mixed groups for interpretative learning; own practice reflection for integrative learning; formulating general collaborative competence objectives, and complexity and realism of scenarios.

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Section: Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Exercise design for interagency collaboration training: The case of maritime nuclear emergency management tabletop exercises

Elvegård,

Andreassen

2023

Contingencies & Crisis Mgmt

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“…In Section 4.1, we noted the potential importance of the situational context

Z_{it}

in which an email is received. For example, it is well‐known that an individual who is under intense time‐pressure is less likely, if not simply unable, to engage in deliberative decision making (Hwang, 1994; Maule & Edland, 1997; Steigenberger et al., 2017). The present model makes plain the security‐vulnerability dangers of highly routinized email‐processing practices, even if these would otherwise be efficient.…”

Section: Incorporating Intuitive Emotional and Fallible Decision Makingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Many phish in the C$\mathcal{C}$: A coexisting‐choice‐criteria model of security behavior

Embrey

Kaivanto

2022

Risk Analysis

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Normative decision theory proves inadequate for modeling human responses to the social-engineering campaigns of advanced persistent threat (APT) attacks. Behavioral decision theory fares better, but still falls short of capturing social-engineering attack vectors which operate through emotions and peripheral-route persuasion. We introduce a generalized decision theory, under which any decision will be made according to one of multiple coexisting choice criteria. We denote the set of possible choice criteria by . Thus, the proposed model reduces to conventional Expected Utility theory when | EU | = 1, while Dual-Process (thinking fast vs. thinking slow) decision making corresponds to a model with | DP | = 2. We consider a more general case with || ≥ 2, which necessitates careful consideration of how, for a particular choice-task instance, one criterion comes to prevail over others. We operationalize this with a probability distribution that is conditional upon traits of the decisionmaker as well as upon the context and the framing of choice options. Whereas existing signal detection theory (SDT) models of phishing detection commingle the different peripheral-route persuasion pathways, in the present descriptive generalization the different pathways are explicitly identified and represented. A number of implications follow immediately from this formulation, ranging from the conditional nature of security-breach risk to delineation of the prerequisites for valid tests of security training. Moreover, the model explains the "steppingstone" penetration pattern of APT attacks, which has confounded modeling approaches based on normative rationality.

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“…Specifically, we predicted future dynamic changes and trends from January 2016 to December 2024 from an existing big dataset. These future dynamic changes and trends can be considered a scientific reference (Tversky and Kahneman 1981;Lai and Huang 2017;Steigenberger et al 2017) to assist experts in decision making and judgment for our questionnaire survey.…”

Section: Analytic Network Process (Anp)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Because the results of real-world judgments and decisions often depend on future events and situations vary over time (Saaty 2007), to make an appropriate decision, decision units must be sensitive to the characteristics of the decision-making context (Nilsson and Dalkmann 2001;Steigenberger et al 2017) and should assess decisions according to future trends predicted from information obtained from historical time series or point processes. In this study, we predicted future trends and time series using GM (1,1), which is used frequently to explore socioeconomic issues (Kang and Zhao 2012;Liu et al 2014) and serves as the classical core of grey prediction models (Deng 1989).…”

Section: Gm (11) Model With Upper/lower Envelope Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of Big Data and Analytic Network Process for the Adaptive Reuse Strategies of School Land

Huang

Wey

2018

Soc Indic Res

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Most recent discussion of the adaptive reuse of school land has focused almost exclusively on repurposing or redeploying vacant school space rather than comprehensively re-planning and constructing the entire school land for the overall needs of society and urban development. The relevant government agencies for school land reuse in Taiwan, such as the Ministry of Education and municipal governments, mostly provide subjective regulations or revitalization provisions for the sustainable development of school resources; however, no specific scientific assessment or a planning procedure has been proposed to revitalize school land. Therefore, constructing a scientific, quantitative, and objective planning framework and procedure is necessary for the adaptive reuse of school land based on the needs of overall society and urban development in order to replace the existing and outdated planning philosophy and to correct prominent shortcomings of past planning operations that were solely in accordance with the qualitative judgment and decision making of official agencies. In this study, we mainly adopted the analytic network process (ANP) and big data, including demographics, facility usage, and social welfare indicators, to assist the Taipei City government to construct or reform land reuse strategies for junior high and elementary schools facing immediate or future closure, consolidation, or downsizing. To take a more realistic approach to improve final decision making, the investigation of expert questionnaires through the ANP was based on the consideration of future trends that were objectively evaluated by big datasets. The novel planning philosophy and concise decision framework for reuse strategies we designed are expected to improve public decision-making transparency, adaptive reuse effectiveness, and quality of urban life. Ultimately, our proposed strategies and suggestions can not only assist local public sectors to promote the policy of adaptive reuse of surplus school lands but also serve as an appropriate blueprint of urban sustainability for the central government in the near future.

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Decision Modes in Complex Task Environments

Cited by 6 publications

References 0 publications

Exercise design for interagency collaboration training: The case of maritime nuclear emergency management tabletop exercises

Exercise design for interagency collaboration training: The case of maritime nuclear emergency management tabletop exercises

Many phish in the C$\mathcal{C}$: A coexisting‐choice‐criteria model of security behavior

Application of Big Data and Analytic Network Process for the Adaptive Reuse Strategies of School Land

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