Decision making with epistemic uncertainty under safety constraints: An application to seismic design

Veneziano, Daniele; Agarwal, Anna; Karaca, Erdem

doi:10.1016/j.probengmech.2008.12.004

Cited by 14 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Based on this reasoning, Equation (8) should be modified to the following: Based on this reasoning, Equation (8) should be modified to the following:…”

Section: Lifecycle Repair Costmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For instance, FEMA 445 [1] specifies that only little or no damage is acceptable for frequently happening events, whereas considerable damage is allowed to occur in case of extremely large and rare hazard events. (e.g., [6,7], and [8]). This risk is normally expressed by the product of the damage-state likelihood by its implications.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the literature of infrastructure management, effects of earthquake as a hazard event have also been considered through Markov decision frameworks, considering no or instantaneous repairs. (e.g., [6,7], and [8]). Freddi et al [9] also proposed a framework for the evaluation of the expected lifecycle cost of a structure considering the occurrence of multiple earthquake events.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multiple hazard incidents lifecycle cost assessment of structural systems considering state‐dependent repair times and fragility curves

Fereshtehnejad

Shafieezadeh

2016

Earthq Engng Struct Dyn

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Summary The performance and serviceability of structural systems during their lifetime can be significantly affected by the occurrence of extreme events. Despite their low probability, there is a potential for multiple occurrences of such hazards during the relatively long service life of systems. This paper introduces a comprehensive framework for the assessment of lifecycle cost of infrastructures subject to multiple hazard events throughout their decision‐making time horizon. The framework entails the lifecycle costs of maintenance and repair, as well as the salvage value of the structure at the end of the decision‐making time horizon. The primary features of the proposed framework include accounting for the possibility of multiple hazard occurrences, incorporating effects of incomplete repair actions on the accumulated damage through damage state‐dependent repair times, and requiring limited resources in terms of input data and computational costs. A dynamic programming procedure is proposed to calculate the expected damage condition of the structure for each possibility of the number of hazard incidents based on state‐dependent fragility curves. The proposed framework is applied to a moment‐frame building located in a region with high seismicity, and lifecycle costs are evaluated for six retrofit plans. The results displayed variation in the ranking of the retrofit actions with respect to decision‐making time horizon. Furthermore, the sensitivity analyses demonstrated that disregarding repair time in the lifecycle cost analysis can result in false identification of unsafe retrofit actions as optimal and reliable strategies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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“…Based on this reasoning, Equation (8) should be modified to the following: Based on this reasoning, Equation (8) should be modified to the following:…”

Section: Lifecycle Repair Costmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Multiple hazard incidents lifecycle cost assessment of structural systems considering state‐dependent repair times and fragility curves

Fereshtehnejad

Shafieezadeh

2016

Earthq Engng Struct Dyn

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“…In particular, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) or probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is widely used to produce quantitative estimates of the failure risk associated with complex engineering systems [29], such as nuclear plants [30], [31], space systems [32], [33], and seismic design of buildings [34]. These studies emphasize the potential failures caused by the abnormal conditions such as accidents, natural disasters, and subsystem failures [35].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Propagation Through a Platform: The Failure Risk Perspective on Platform Sharing

Kang

Hong

Huh

et al. 2015

IEEE Trans. Eng. Manage.

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A product platform is a set of subsystems and interfaces that are commonly shared by a variety of products. Although platform sharing is considered an effective means of cost saving, it also runs the risk of propagating a particular failure across multiple products when the platform is defectively designed. Thus, sharing a common platform effectively can amplify the risk of incurring a large number of failures. In this paper, we formulate a quantitative model for assessing amplified failure risk. Our analysis shows an unexpected result that the platform risk increases as we become more assured of our design capability; i.e., when a defective design rarely happens, the magnitude of risk amplification becomes much larger. The numerical investigation of a platform planning case sheds light on the importance of risk assessment in determining the level of commonality in designing a platform.Index Terms-Decisions under risk and uncertainty, decision analysis, mathematical tools for management of technology, new product development process, R&D management.

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“…This includes Bayesian approaches [5,6,7,8], interval probabilities [9,10], random sets [11], evidence theory [12,13], fuzzy stochastic concepts [14] and info-gap theory [15]. These concepts are part of the general framework of information theory, which is elucidated in [16] in a rigorous manner.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Imprecise probabilities in engineering analyses

Beer

Ferson

Kreinovich

2013

Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing

374

193

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Probabilistic uncertainty and imprecision in structural parameters and in environmental conditions and loads are challenging phenomena in engineering analyses. They require appropriate mathematical modeling and quantication to obtain realistic results when predicting the behavior and reliability of engineering structures and systems. But the modeling and quantication is complicated by the characteristics of the available information, which involves, for example, sparse data, poor measurements and subjective information. This raises the question whether the available information is sucient for probabilistic modeling or rather suggests a set-theoretical approach. The framework of imprecise probabilities provides a mathematical basis to deal with these problems which involve both probabilistic and non-probabilistic information. A common feature of the various concepts of imprecise probabilities is the consideration of an entire set of probabilistic models in one analysis. The theoretical dierences between the concepts mainly concern the mathematical description of the set of probabilistic models and the connection to the probabilistic models involved.This paper provides an overview on developments which involve imprecise probabilities for the solution of engineering problems. Evidence theory, probability bounds analysis with p-boxes, and fuzzy probabilities are discussed with emphasis on their key features and on their relationships to one another.

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Decision making with epistemic uncertainty under safety constraints: An application to seismic design

Cited by 14 publications

References 14 publications

Multiple hazard incidents lifecycle cost assessment of structural systems considering state‐dependent repair times and fragility curves

Multiple hazard incidents lifecycle cost assessment of structural systems considering state‐dependent repair times and fragility curves

Risk Propagation Through a Platform: The Failure Risk Perspective on Platform Sharing

Imprecise probabilities in engineering analyses

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