Decision-making with distorted memory: Escaping the trap of past experience

Mitsokapas, Evangelos; Harris, Rosemary J.

doi:10.1016/j.physa.2021.126762

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…A promising way to introduce this is through explicit path-dependency in the agents' decision-making process. Such effects have been studied through the inclusion of memory effects in utility functions [51][52][53], showing interesting effects such as ageing or memory induced condensation. There remains, however, to see how such memory effects could arise naturally from interactions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exact time-dependent dynamics of discrete binary choice models

Holehouse

Moran

2022

J. Phys. Complex.

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We provide a generic method to find full dynamical solutions to binary decision models with interactions. In these models, agents follow a stochastic evolution where they must choose between two possible choices by taking into account the choices of their peers. We illustrate our method by solving Kirman and Föllmer's ant recruitment model for any number $N$ of \textit{discrete} agents and for any choice of parameters, recovering past results found in the limit $N\to \infty$. We then solve extensions of the ant recruitment model for increasing asymmetry between the two choices. Finally, we provide an analytical time-dependent solution to the standard voter model and a semi-analytical solution to the vacillating voter model. Our results show that \textit{exact} analytical time-dependent solutions can be achieved for discrete choice models without invoking that the number of agents $N$ are continuous or that both choices are symmetric, and additionally show how to practically use the analytics for fast evaluation of the resulting probability distributions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exact time-dependent dynamics of discrete binary choice models

Holehouse

Moran

2022

J. Phys. Complex.

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“…A promising way to introduce this is through explicit path-dependency in the agents' decision-making process. Such effects have been studied through the inclusion of memory effects in utility functions [47][48][49], showing interesting effects such as ageing or memory induced condensation. There remains, however, to see how such memory effects could arise naturally from interactions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exact time-dependent dynamics of discrete binary choice models

Holehouse¹,

Morán²

2022

Preprint

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Adaptive strategies in Kelly’s horse races model

Armand¹,

Peliti²,

Lacoste³

2022

J. Stat. Mech.

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We formulate an adaptive version of Kelly’s horse model in which the gambler learns from past race results using Bayesian inference. We characterize the cost of this gambling strategy and we analyze the asymptotic scaling of the difference between the growth rate of the gambler and the optimal growth rate, known as the gambler’s regret. We also explain how this adaptive strategy relates to the universal portfolio strategy, and we build improved adaptive strategies in which the gambler exploits the information contained in the bookmaker odds distribution.

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Decision-making with distorted memory: Escaping the trap of past experience

Cited by 3 publications

References 33 publications

Exact time-dependent dynamics of discrete binary choice models

Exact time-dependent dynamics of discrete binary choice models

Exact time-dependent dynamics of discrete binary choice models

Adaptive strategies in Kelly’s horse races model

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