Decision Making under Conditions of Uncertainty and Risk in the Formation of Warehouse Stock of an Automotive Service Enterprise

Abstract

This article is devoted to the problem of determining the rational amount of spare parts in the warehouse of a service center of an automobile manufacturer’s branded network used for maintenance and current repairs. This problem was solved on the basis of the accumulated statistical data of failures that occurred during the warranty period of vehicle operation. In the calculation, game methods were used. This took into account the stochastic need for spare parts and the consequences of their presence or absence in stock, which are expressed in the form of a profit and an additional possible payment of a fine in case of a discrepancy between the current level of demand for spare parts and the available spare parts. Two cases of decision making are considered: under conditions of risk and uncertainty, the occurrence of which depends on the amount of information about the input flow of enters to the service center. If such statistics are accumulated, then the decision is made taking into account the possible risk associated with the uncertainty of a specific need for spare parts. Otherwise, the probability of a particular need is calculated on the basis of special criteria. To optimize the collection of information about the state of warehouse stocks, the transfer of information, and the assessment and forecasting of stocks, well-organized feedback is needed, which is shown in the form of an algorithm.