Decarbonising the UK residential sector: The dependence of national abatement on flexible and local views of the future

Abstract

The UK has some of the worst performing residential buildings in the EU from an energy efficiency perspective. Natural gas remains a dominant feature of existing and new-build housing with strong historical, technical, and social barriers to change. Consequently, the residential sector is responsible for significant shares of national emissions and has a strong role to play under ambitious net zero targets.To assess this role, this work combines long-term system-wide optimisation modelling with heat and electricity network models of representative residential locations. The scenario framework investigates key heating alternatives across futures with dwindling carbon budgets but lower restrictions on residential investment options. Comparing frameworks offers insights into "real life" applicability of technology solutions consistent with system-wide decarbonisation pathways to 2050.Residential sector heat plays an increasing role in lowering emissions as targets tighten. Moving away from natural gas becomes unavoidable and long-term trajectories combine end-use electrification, at household or collective levels, with supply-side decarbonisation. This is preferable to alternative gases that continue to carry uncertain emission impacts, but requires significant local network reinforcement. This could be deferred where technically difficult using near-term hybrid approaches. Enabling this transition will rely on policies that support open and varied technology portfolios.

Heat Decarbonisation Modelling Approaches in the UK: An Energy System Architecture Perspective

“…A more recent effort by Broad et al [49] contrasted UK TIMES with heat and electricity network models of representative residential locations to model heat decarbonisation pathways under strict carbon targets. Using two different modelling frameworks allowed the researchers to better understand the operational implications of different system configurations that result from systems-wide decarbonisation pathways up to 2050; for instance, particular technology choices would require significant local network reinforcement.…”

Heterogeneity of UK residential heat demand and its impact on the value case for heat pumps

“…Seasonal performance factor 9 (SPF) of HPs depends on the thermal efficiency of the building supplied. This can reduce HP technology improvements if dwelling efficiency improvements are not conducted in parallel (Broad et al, 2020). This study focuses on retrofits, of which, would be carried out on a significant number of older dwellings in the UK where it may not be easy to obtain high SPFs at minimal scheme cost (i.e.…”

“…The electrification of heat demand through heat pumps 2 (HPs) is likely to play a key role in delivering deep emissions reductions for residential heating in the UK (Broad et al, 2020), whether standalone or as an element in a hybrid system (CCC, 2019b). Hybrid HP systems could decarbonise existing homes 1 2017 represents share of heat from low-carbon sources, 2050 represents the number of existing homes with low-carbon heat (CCC, 2019b) 2 The term heat pump (HP) is used throughout this paper to generalise HP systems.…”

Suitability of Legacy Subsurface Data for Nascent Geoenergy Activities Onshore United Kingdom

“…The United Kingdom government has set a legally binding target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050 (see The UK government, 2008), which, will require decarbonizing both industrial and residential energy systems, (e.g. Cooper and Hammond, 2018;Broad et al, 2020). The geology, specifically onshore subsurface, of the United Kingdom has a role to play in this transition (Stephenson et al, 2019), in particular, through decentralized energy systems and the use of geothermal energy (Lloyd, 2018), as part of the hydrogen economy as storage at grid scale, and emission abatement through carbon capture and storage, (e.g.…”