Heterogeneity of UK residential heat demand and its impact on the value case for heat pumps

Abstract

This study examines the heterogeneity of UK residential heat demand and how this diversity, along with social demographic and dwelling characteristic diversity, impacts the value case for heat pumps (HPs). The marginal abatement cost (MAC) of HPs is highly sensitive to the level of heat demand and technology assumptions. Care must be taken when interpreting the results from models with a high degree of aggregation. For similar dwellings, heat demand typically becomes lower for demographic groups that have higher levels of deprivation. For similar dwellings and demographics, households using natural gas typically have double the enduse heat demands of households with electric storage heaters. Therefore, if access to heating with similar costs to that of natural gas-fired heating is gained, the direct rebound effect suggests that the heat demands of households heated with electric storage heaters could double, particularly for households that have relatively high proportions of energy expenditure. Heating technology and building efficiency support mechanisms need to simultaneously address the wider goal of decarbonisation while reducing fuel poverty, and to incorporate measures of demand diversity into future assessment of heat policy that recognises how this rebound may oppose decarbonisation efforts but enable improvements in comfort, welfare and health standards.

Energy and environmental impacts of air-to-air heat pumps in a mid-latitude city

“…Ref. 38 found evidence for a potential rebound effect for residential buildings in the UK since, currently a part of the households are restricting their energy consumption due to the high cost of energy. Furthermore, households who install HPs might use them as ACs in the summer, and as the climate warms, occupants may start using air conditioning even if they have not had it in the past.…”

Heterogeneous preferences for living in a hydrogen home: an advanced multigroup analysis

“…40 Relatedly, accounting for heterogeneity is fundamental to improving "precision in the identication and evaluation of causal mechanisms," 41 which motivates the use of structural equation modelling (SEM). However, ahead of a potentially 'critical juncture' 42 in the UK's energy future, 43,44 which could shape the feasibility of developing a national hydrogen economy 45 researchers are yet to examine the role of consumer heterogeneity 41,46,47 in shaping potential market acceptance for 'hydrogen homes'. 38,48 To date, research on domestic hydrogen has applied a techno-economic perspective, 7,34,49 employing tools such as the UK Times Model to examine technology pathways for heat decarbonisation.…”