Dealignment, realignment and generational differences in The Netherlands

Abstract

A central question in Western European electoral research is whether electoral changes over the past decades should be interpreted in terms of dealignment or realignment. Although many scholars study this question, they have not paid much attention to the role of generational replacement. This 'age-period-cohort' (APC) study fills this void by examining the last 10 national elections in the Netherlands (1986-2017). The hypothesis is tested that the determinants of party choice differ systematically across generations. With regard to period effects, it is found that the association between party preference and its predictors has mainly weakened. Over generations, contrarily no decreasing associations are found. The effects of religion, social class, partisanship, left-right and redistribution have not structurally decreased with each successive generation, whereas the effects of education, immigration and European unification are stronger for younger generations. Taken together, these findings reveal how dealignment over time can co-exist with realignment over generations.

Youth Attitudes and Participation in Climate Protest: An International Cities Comparison Frontiers in Political Science Special Issue: Youth Activism in Environmental Politics

“…These studies have highlighted the complex and nuanced way age intersects with cleavages of caste, class, gender, income, education, ethnicity and religious identification, voting habits and trust in institutions (Hazary,1988;Henn and Foard, 2014). However, generational differences also persist in research (Norris and Inglehart, 2019;van der Brug and Rekker, 2021). Generational analysis of participation in recent global movements includes feminist, civil rights, peace movements, and social and economic justice struggles like Occupy, or Black Lives Matter (Honwana, 2019;Lam-Knott and Cheng, 2020).…”

Knowledge Resistance in High-Choice Information Environments

“…divergence) toward economic redistribution and abortion has decreased in the Netherlands, while this variation has increased for attitudes about globalization and European unification (Dekker & Den Ridder, 2019). Likewise, the party preference and political identity of Dutch and Swedish citizens have become less connected to traditional moral and economic issues and more to views on immigration and European unification (Oscarsson et al, 2021;Rekker, 2016;Van der Brug & Rekker, 2021).…”

Age, period and cohort effects in a dealigned electorate: comparing late deciders and vote switchers

“…Chiaramonte & Emanuele, 2017). Moreover, evidence from the Netherlands suggests that generation and period effect can take place simultaneously, therefore combining processes of both dealignment and realignment (Van der Brug & Rekker, 2021).…”

“…The insight that age effects may impact the evolution of partisanship, turnout or patterns of voting choice has inspired much electoral research (Dalton, 2004; Franklin, 2004; Hooghe, 2004; Van der Brug & Kritzinger, 2012; Wagner & Kritzinger, 2012; Walczak et al, 2012; Lisi, 2015; Dassonneville, 2017; Van der Brug & Rekker, 2021). However, hardly any research has focused on age‐period‐cohort (APC) effects on electoral indecision, and hardly any studies have compared the logic behind time of vote decision with the rationale of vote switching from this perspective.…”