2015
DOI: 10.1080/13698249.2015.1100277
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Dangerous Demographics? The Effect of Urbanisation and Metropolisation on African Civil Wars, 1961–2010

Abstract: Whether urbanisation promotes or inhibits the risk of civil war is disputed: while case studies usually support the former, quantitative investigations have found either the latter or no significant correlation at all. I argue that this contradiction is due to a conceptual and operational over-aggregation of urbanisation, ignoring its intrastate variation. I claim that a high relative concentration of the urban population and political, economic and social institutions in the largest city -so-called metropolis… Show more

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Cited by 9 publications
(7 citation statements)
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“…Similarly, Cincotta, Engelman & Anastasion (2003) report that countries with rapid urbanization growth suffer from civil conflict. 8 Quantitative studies, on the other hand, do not confirm that urban population growth leads to a higher risk or frequency of social disorder (Schulz, 2015; Buhaug & Urdal, 2013; Urdal & Hoelscher, 2009), although very populous cities tend to see unrest more often (Bahgat, Buhaug & Urdal, 2018). Furthermore, it seems that rural-to-urban migration per se, one of the principal reasons for rising levels of urbanization, does not contribute to political violence in urban settings (Østby, 2016).…”
Section: Climate Change and Rural-to-urban Migrationmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Similarly, Cincotta, Engelman & Anastasion (2003) report that countries with rapid urbanization growth suffer from civil conflict. 8 Quantitative studies, on the other hand, do not confirm that urban population growth leads to a higher risk or frequency of social disorder (Schulz, 2015; Buhaug & Urdal, 2013; Urdal & Hoelscher, 2009), although very populous cities tend to see unrest more often (Bahgat, Buhaug & Urdal, 2018). Furthermore, it seems that rural-to-urban migration per se, one of the principal reasons for rising levels of urbanization, does not contribute to political violence in urban settings (Østby, 2016).…”
Section: Climate Change and Rural-to-urban Migrationmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Even more accurate might be an indicator of metropolization: How many urbanites live in the metropolis of a country? We assume that modernity is most pronounced in the metropolises, where the political, economic, and social life of a country is concentrated (Schulz, 2015). The inhabitant of the metropolis is most exposed to modernity and thus least inclined to adhere to traditional rules and to uphold loyalty toward traditional authorities.…”
Section: Explanatory Variables and Hypotheses: Political Demand And Smentioning
confidence: 99%
“…For the second condition, the deconcentrated settlement pattern, we use metropolization (cf. Schulz, 2015, for the concept) and not urbanization as an indicator. First, what counts as ‘urban’ in absolute numbers varies widely across Sub-Saharan Africa rendering an absolute measure of urbanization incomparable.…”
Section: Methods and Datamentioning
confidence: 99%