Damage and protection cost curves for coastal floods within the 600 largest European cities

Prahl, Boris F.; Boettle, Markus; Costa, Luís; Kropp, Jürgen P.; Rybski, Diego

doi:10.1038/sdata.2018.34

Cited by 54 publications

(65 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Seven cities show risks between 100 and 500 million euros, while the remaining 15 cities' risk stays below 100 million euros. The results for Amsterdam look disproportionate compared to the rest in all cases, but this might be due to a limitation of the cost curve acknowledged by Prahl et al (2018), which underrepresent the role of current defences.…”

Section: Estimating Additional Damage Risks Due To Sea-level Rise In mentioning

confidence: 87%

“…Aiming to contribute to the discussion initiated by Prahl et al (2018), we have combined deterministic damage curves for coastal flooding with relative probabilistic SLR for three emission scenarios (Kopp et al 2014). This gives us the probabilistic distribution of the additional damages due to SLR for each scenario and point in time for 600 European cities, which are necessary to obtain the damage distributions, understand the shape of its tail and calculate the ES (95%).…”

Section: Modelling Risk Measuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the second step, the GEV parameters for SLR obtained in the calibration process and the damage curves (Prahl et al 2018) are processed using Monte Carlo methods to obtain the additional flood damages due to SLR for each city, scenario and time considered. Results for the three SLR scenarios and all 600 cities are provided in supplementary tables S1 to S3.…”

Section: Modelling Risk Measuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We use these data to compare the damage estimates with the costs of building a certain protective infrastructure (Prahl et al 2018). That is, we are proposing a probabilistic design model for adaptation measures.…”

Section: Estimating Additional Damage Risks Due To Sea-level Rise In mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An exhaustive dataset of macroscale flood damage and protection cost curves for the 600 largest European coastal cities was recently published (Prahl et al 2018), initiating a more general discussion on the use of cost and damage curves. The authors argue that while 'aggregate cost curves on coastal flooding at citylevel are commonly regarded as by-products of impact assessments' this information can be of great use for comparative assessments of costs and benefits of coastal adaptation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Risk measures and the distribution of damage curves for 600 European coastal cities

Abadie

Galarraga

Markandya

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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A good understanding of climate change damages is vital to design effective adaptation policies and measures. Using a dataset of probabilistic sea-level rise and other of flood damages and protection cost curves for the 600 largest European coastal cities we generate stochastic damage curves and their distributions with and without adaptation. We apply the Generalized Extreme Value distribution to characterize the distributions and calculate two risk measures: the Value at Risk and the Expected Shortfall, which contribute to understanding the magnitude and probability of high-end sea-level rise represented by the upper tail of the distribution. This allows the costs of sea-level rise to be estimated (that is, in addition to other costs related to coastal extreme events) and supports decision-makers in integrating the high uncertainty related to future projections. This knowledge is necessary for an adequate risk management that does not underestimate risk. Furthermore, it allows city planners to tailor their risk tolerance. A great number of cities in Europe are currently undertaking adaptation plans or have already done so. Making these findings available should therefore be of great priority value to inform these processes.

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Section: Estimating Additional Damage Risks Due To Sea-level Rise In mentioning

confidence: 87%

Section: Modelling Risk Measuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Modelling Risk Measuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Estimating Additional Damage Risks Due To Sea-level Rise In mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Risk measures and the distribution of damage curves for 600 European coastal cities

Abadie

Galarraga

Markandya

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Observations to Underpin Policy

Smail¹,

Celliers²,

Costa³

et al. 2022

Earth Observation Applications and Global Policy Frameworks

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Human health in systemic adaptation to climate change: insights from flood risk management in a river basin

Assmuth

Lyytimäki

2019

Environ Syst Decis

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Human health risks in dealing with floods in a river basin in SouthWestern Finland are analysed as an example of scientific and practical challenges in systemic adaptation to climate change and in integrated governance of water resources. The analysis is based on case reports and plans, on literature studies and on conceptual models of risks and risk management. Flood risks in the Northern European study area are aggravated by melt-and storm-water runoff, ice jams and coastal flooding. Flood risk assessment is linked with management plans based on EU directives as applied in the case area. National risk management policies and procedures of increasing scope and depth have been devised for climate change, water resources and overall safety, but an integrated approach to health risks is still largely missing. The same is true of surveys of perceived flood risks, and participatory deliberation and collaborative planning procedures for flood risk management in the case area, specifically for adaptive lake regulation. Health impacts, risks and benefits, socioeconomic and systemic risks, and overarching prevention, adaptation and compensation measures are not fully included. We propose a systematic framework for these extensions. Particular attention needs to be given to health risks due to flooding, e.g. from water contamination, moist buildings, mental stress and infrastructure damage and also from management actions. Uncertainties and ambiguities about risks present continuing challenges. It is concluded that health aspects of flooding are complex and need to be better included in assessment and control, to develop more integrated and adaptive systemic risk governance.

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Damage and protection cost curves for coastal floods within the 600 largest European cities

Cited by 54 publications

References 42 publications

Risk measures and the distribution of damage curves for 600 European coastal cities

Risk measures and the distribution of damage curves for 600 European coastal cities

Observations to Underpin Policy

Human health in systemic adaptation to climate change: insights from flood risk management in a river basin

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