Dairy goat kids fed liquid diets in substitution of goat milk and slaughtered at different ages: an economic viability analysis using Monte Carlo techniques

Abstract

The aim of this study was to analyze the economic viability of producing dairy goat kids fed liquid diets in alternative of goat milk and slaughtered at two different ages. Forty-eight male newborn Saanen and Alpine kids were selected and allocated to four groups using a completely randomized factorial design: goat milk (GM), cow milk (CM), commercial milk replacer (CMR) and fermented cow colostrum (FC). Each group was then divided into two groups: slaughter at 60 and 90 days of age. The animals received Tifton hay and concentrate ad libitum. The values of total costs of liquid and solid feed plus labor, income and average gross margin were calculated. The data were then analyzed using the Monte Carlo techniques with the @Risk 5.5 software, with 1000 iterations of the variables being studied through the model. The kids fed GM and CMR generated negative profitability values when slaughtered at 60 days (US$ −16.4 and US$ −2.17, respectively) and also at 90 days (US$ −30.8 and US$ −0.18, respectively). The risk analysis showed that there is a 98% probability that profitability would be negative when GM is used. In this regard, CM and FC presented low risk when the kids were slaughtered at 60 days (8.5% and 21.2%, respectively) and an even lower risk when animals were slaughtered at 90 days (5.2% and 3.8%, respectively). The kids fed CM and slaughtered at 90 days presented the highest average gross income (US$ 67.88) and also average gross margin (US$ 18.43/animal). For the 60-day rearing regime to be economically viable, the CMR cost should not exceed 11.47% of the animal-selling price. This implies that the replacer cannot cost more than US$ 0.39 and 0.43/kg for the 60-and 90-day feeding regimes, respectively. The sensitivity analysis showed that the variables with the greatest impact on the final model's results were animal selling price, liquid diet cost, final weight at slaughter and labor. In conclusion, the production of male dairy goat kids can be economically viable when the kids diet consists mainly of either cow milk or fermented colostrum, especially when kids are slaughtered at 90 days of age.

Evaluation of production systems and economic analysis of baby goats raised in the semiarid region of Paraíba

“…Hassan et al ( 2018) evaluated goat's milk substitutes in raising Shami kids, kids fed with milk substitutes had higher final live weight (14.22 ± 0.2 kg vs 15.19 ± 0.3 kg; P <0.01) and average daily gain (120 ± 2g/day vs 130 ± 3g/day) compared to animals on natural lactation. Strategies for the use of milk substitutes in goat farming are important to make the goat product more available to the market, since its economic value is greater, as suggested by Knupp et al (2016).…”

“…For the carcass cost, the local market values in force in the experimental period (U$$ 7.02) were considered. Knupp et al (2016) found that the production of goats for slaughter is profitable and influenced by the sale price of the animals, the cost of the diet and the weight of the animals at slaughter. The same authors observed that bovine milk can and should be used in goat production systems as a way to cheapen the final product.…”