Cyclogenesis and Forecast of Dramatic Water Elevations in Venice

Tomasin, Alberto; Frassetto, Roberto

doi:10.1016/s0422-9894(08)71142-5

Cited by 10 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…When it stepped in with its operational hydrodynamic models, it benefited from theoretical studies (see e.g. Tomasin and Frassetto, 1979) developed at the Venetian Laboratorio per lo Studio della Dinamica delle Grandi Masse, now part of ISMAR. At the beginning only statistical models were used.…”

Section: The Use Of Wave Information For Tidal Forecastmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Henetus wave forecast system in the Adriatic Sea

Bertotti

Canestrelli²,

Cavaleri

et al. 2011

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. We describe the Henetus wave forecast system in the Adriatic Sea. Operational since 1996, the system is continuously upgraded, especially through the correction of the input ECMWF wind fields. As these fields are of progressively improved quality with the increasing resolution of the meteorological model, the correction needs to be correspondingly updated. This ensures a practically constant quality of the Henetus results in the Adriatic Sea since 1996. After suitable and extended validation of the quality of the results at different forecast ranges, the operational range has been recently extended to five days. The Henetus results are used also to improve the tidal forecast on the Venetian coasts and the Venice lagoon, particularly during the most severe events. Extensive statistics on the model performance are provided, both as analysis and forecast, by comparing the model results versus both satellite and buoy data.

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Section: The Use Of Wave Information For Tidal Forecastmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Henetus wave forecast system in the Adriatic Sea

Bertotti

Canestrelli²,

Cavaleri

et al. 2011

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…During the 20th century, the frequency of sea surges, locally called acqua alta, has exhibited a pronounced increase, particularly when compared with historical data, back as far as the 9th century (Tomasin and Frassetto, 1979;Camuffo, 1993). There are several factors contributing to such an increase; in particular, sea level rise caused by global warming, local subsidence, and work in the Venice Lagoon, which increased exchange with the Adriatic Sea (Tomasin and Frassetto, 1979;Pirazzoli, 1991;Camuffo, 1993).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…When an individual sea surge is considered, however, the immediate forcing is meteorological -the passage of storms (Tomasin and Frassetto, 1979;Camuffo, 1993;Pirazzoli and Tomasin, 1999a). These may induce a spatial distribution of air pressure over the Adriatic Sea, which causes a rise in sea level in its northern part, in order to maintain hydrostatic balance, and/or an associated southerly wind over the Adriatic Sea may favour the piling up of water at its northern end (where Venice is located).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorological conditions associated with sea surges in Venice: a 40 year climatology

Trigo

Davies

2002

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The frequency of sea surges in Venice has increased during the 20th century, and the trend has been particularly pronounced in the last four decades. However, the time series of independent surge events (i.e. events separated by at least 1 week) has remained nearly stationary during that period. This suggests that, although the sea level rise (due to global warming and human activity in the region) is leading to more multiple events, the frequency of meteorological conditions that trigger independent events seems to be nearly balancing the effects of sea level change.Such meteorological conditions are identified by compositing sea level pressure (SLP) and 995 hPa wind during and before independent sea surge events in Venice. The composite analysis shows that these correspond to storms orographically induced over the western Mediterranean basin, when an Atlantic synoptic system is perturbed by the Pyrenees and/or the Alps. It is, however, the persistence, intensity and relative position of such storms to the Adriatic Sea that contribute to the optimum conditions for the occurrence of floodings in its northern embayment.It is shown that the synoptic picture is translated into persistent low SLP over the Venice region, negative north-south SLP gradient over the Adriatic, and south-southeasterly to southeasterly wind over the central and northern parts of the sea. During the 40 year period under analysis, the persistence and intensity of the most adverse scenarios for the occurrence of sea surges in Venice have been generally decreasing; significant trends have been found in the tails of the distributions of Venice SLP, SLP north-south gradient, and of surface wind over the northern Adriatic. It is the balance between these trends and the continuing sea level rise that may account for the near-stationarity of independent sea surge events during the last four decades.

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“…In particular strong south-easterly winds (sirocco) over the Adriatic Sea, associated with the crossing of cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea, are effective in pushing the water toward the northern closed end of the basin and raising the sea level. The importance of sirocco wind in producing flooding events in Venice was evidenced by many authors (see for example Palmieri and Finizio, 1970;Tomasin and Frassetto, 1979;Canestrelli et al, 2001). The wind duration is also important, but its effect can not be simply quantified, because it has important consequences on the Adriatic seiches.…”

Section: The Storm Surge Event On 16 November 2002mentioning

confidence: 90%

“…The seiches are free oscillation of the Adriatic Sea, initially stimulated by meteorological factors and persisting, progressively attenuated, for several days, also after the storm has finished. Theoretic considerations and numerical experiments have shown that the development of the seiche, its amplification or attenuation, strongly depend on the duration of the wind, giving origin to the motion (Tomasin et al, 2005).…”

Section: The Storm Surge Event On 16 November 2002mentioning

confidence: 99%

Storm surge in the Adriatic Sea: observational and numerical diagnosis of an extreme event

Zampato¹,

Umgiesser

Zecchetto

2006

Adv. Geosci.

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Abstract. Storm surge events occur in the Adriatic Sea, in particular during autumn and winter, often producing flooding in Venice. Sea levels are forecasted by numerical models, which require wind and pressure fields as input. Their performances depend crucially on the quality of those fields. The storm surge event on 16 November 2002 is analysed and simulated through a finite element hydrodynamic model of the Mediterranean Sea. Several runs were carried out, imposing different atmospheric forcings: wind fields from ECMWF analysis, high resolution winds from the limited area model LAMI and satellite observed winds from QuikSCAT (NASA). The performance of the hydrodynamic model in each case has been quantified. ECMWF fields are effective in reproducing the sea level in the northern Adriatic Sea, if the wind speed is enhanced by a suitable multiplying factor. High resolution winds from LAMI give promising results, permitting an accurate simulation of the sea level maxima. QuikSCAT satellite wind fields produce also encouraging results which claim, however, for further research.

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Cyclogenesis and Forecast of Dramatic Water Elevations in Venice

Cited by 10 publications

References 6 publications

The Henetus wave forecast system in the Adriatic Sea

The Henetus wave forecast system in the Adriatic Sea

Meteorological conditions associated with sea surges in Venice: a 40 year climatology

Storm surge in the Adriatic Sea: observational and numerical diagnosis of an extreme event

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