Abstract. We describe the Henetus wave forecast system in the Adriatic Sea. Operational since 1996, the system is continuously upgraded, especially through the correction of the input ECMWF wind fields. As these fields are of progressively improved quality with the increasing resolution of the meteorological model, the correction needs to be correspondingly updated. This ensures a practically constant quality of the Henetus results in the Adriatic Sea since 1996. After suitable and extended validation of the quality of the results at different forecast ranges, the operational range has been recently extended to five days. The Henetus results are used also to improve the tidal forecast on the Venetian coasts and the Venice lagoon, particularly during the most severe events. Extensive statistics on the model performance are provided, both as analysis and forecast, by comparing the model results versus both satellite and buoy data.
Sea-level forecasting in Venice is a fundamental task for safeguarding the ancient city, its cultural heritage and natural environment. In the last 10 years the finite-element numerical Shallow Water Hydrodynamic Model (SHYFEM), developed at the Institute of Marine Sciences (ISMAR) of the National Research Council (CNR) of Venice, has been operationally implemented at the Istituzione Centro Previsioni e Segnalazioni Maree (ICPSM) forecast centre of the Venice Municipality. The model calculates sea level and currents in the whole Mediterranean Sea and the Venice Lagoon under the action of atmospheric forcing fields (pressure and winds) operationally supplied by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). A neural-network module was implemented to correct model results with observed sea-level data in the Adriatic Sea. Every 6 h, the operational model produces a sea-level forecast for the next six days in the Northern Adriatic Sea in the Venice Lagoon. A statistical analysis was performed on the operational results for 2008-2009, to investigate the model goodness-of-fit and its reliability in the operational context. The main statistical quantities (mean error Ē, standard deviation σ, maximum overestimation E max and maximum underestimation E min) were computed. The model predicts the sea level both in Venice and in the open sea with good accuracy, with Ē and σ of the order of 1 cm and 5 cm, respectively, in the first 24 h of anticipation during normal weather conditions. Model errors increase when only considering periods of storm surge events.
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