Cyclical Flows in Australian Labour Markets*

Ponomareva, Natalia; Sheen, Jeffrey

doi:10.1111/j.1475-4932.2010.00658.x

Cited by 13 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Further, our results add to the findings by Ponomareva and Sheen (2010) estimating transition probabilities in the labour market. They find that employment-to-unemployment transition rates are countercyclical but insignificantly large in a recession.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 74%

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Labour Market Dynamics in Australia

Wesselbaum¹

2014

Australian Economic Review

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This paper estimates a stylized search and matching model on data for Australia covering the period 1978-2008. Using Bayesian methods we find that the model does a fairly good job in replicating the data. Surprisingly, we find a large value for the worker's bargaining power and low vacancy posting costs. The model generates a strong Beveridge curve and matches the standard deviations of all variables but vacancies. We identify technology and separation shocks to be the main driver of fluctuations.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 74%

“…(12), while the job finding rate is given by eq. (13). Both equations are mainly driven by the elasticity parameter, µ, which is much lower compared with the estimate for the United States of 0.74 by Lubik (2009).…”

Section: Posteriorsmentioning

confidence: 66%

Labour Market Dynamics in Australia

Wesselbaum¹

2014

Australian Economic Review

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“…Formally, one has: 1 Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, New-Zealand, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, United States. 2 Taking into account inactivity would result in a three-states model (employment-unemployment-inactivity) as developed for instance by Blanchard and Diamond (1989), Burda and Wyplosz (1994) or Ponomareva and Sheen (2009). In this case, six series of transition rates would be involved instead of two, and these series are not available for a panel of OECD countries.…”

Section: The Relationship Between Unemployment and Unemployment Turnovermentioning

confidence: 97%

Unemployment at risk: the policy determinants of labour market exposure to economic shocks

Serres¹,

Murtin²

2014

Econ Policy

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This paper examines the vulnerability of labour markets to adverse economic shocks. We define labour market exposure as the cumulated amount of excess unemployment generated by a shock before unemployment returns to steady-state. We use a panel of 19 countries covering the period 1985-2010 to assess the influence of labour market policies on labour market exposure, which is also calculated country by country. We find that less generous unemployment insurance, more active labour market policies or a lower minimum wage imply a trade-off between average unemployment and labour market exposure, as they help lowskilled workers to get out of unemployment at the cost of increased vulnerability to adverse shocks. On the other hand, reducing the tax wedge is conducive to both lower steady-state unemployment and labour market exposure.--Alain de Serres and Fabrice Murtin U n e m p l o y m e n t a t r i s k Economic Policy

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“…Specifically, this 'golden' period had low unemployment and high labour force participation. As argued elsewhere, this is likely to have been attributable to the effects of ongoing labour market reforms and, more Footnote 17 continued employment to both unemployment and not in the labour force), while Ponomareva and Sheen (2010) argue that increases in the unemployment rate are driven by lower job finding rates and diminished flows from unemployment to employment. 18 See Krolzig (1997) for a detailed discussion of impulse response functions for MS-VAR models with regime-invariant VAR matrices.…”

Section: Concluding Commentsmentioning

confidence: 98%

A Markov-switching structural vector autoregressive model of boom and bust in the Australian labour market

Gaston

Rajaguru

2015

Empir Econ

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Major economic events, such as the global financial crisis, are episodes of identifiable duration that differ from other time periods. Using monthly data on the unemployment rate, labour force participation rate and employment for Australia for the period from 1978 to 2012, we estimate a Markov-switching SVAR model to examine the relationship between unemployment and labour force participation and the performance of the Australian labour market. Three distinct labour market regimes are identified. We find that the labour market switches between periods of low unemployment and high participation, prolonged periods of relative stability and short, sharp periods of high unemployment and low participation. A key finding is that, due to the behaviour of workers not in the labour force, the long-term effect of an upswing in labour hiring results in a lower unemployment rate and a lower labour force participation rate.Keywords Unemployment · Labour force participation · Regime switching JEL Classification O11 · O57 · C23 Noel Gaston and Gulasekaran Rajaguru: The comments of Felix Chan, Phillip Chindamo and two anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged. The authors are also grateful to Lance Fisher and Jan-Egbert Sturm for feedback on an earlier version of the paper. As customary, the authors bear the responsibility for all errors and omissions.

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Cyclical Flows in Australian Labour Markets*

Cited by 13 publications

References 22 publications

Labour Market Dynamics in Australia

Labour Market Dynamics in Australia

Unemployment at risk: the policy determinants of labour market exposure to economic shocks

A Markov-switching structural vector autoregressive model of boom and bust in the Australian labour market

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