Cycles in deregulated electricity markets: Empirical evidence from two decades

Arango, Santiago; Larsen, Erik

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.02.010

Cited by 72 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Electricity capacity expansion planning generally tends to be based on some type of leastcost optimisation given various constraints that mirror existing physical infrastructure conditions, Elshafei, 1979, Garcia et al, 2008, Ghanadan and Koomey, 2005, Güven, 1994, Hart and Jacobson, 2011, Heinrich et al, 2007, Kobos et al, 2006, Pokharel and Chandrashekar, 1998, Psarras et al, 1990, Rachmatullah et al, 2007, Rath-Nagel and Voss, 1981, Samouilidis and Berahas, 1983, Shrestha and Bhattarai, 1994, Silva and Nakata, 2009, Spinney and Watkins, 1996, St. Denis and Parker, 2009, Turkson, 1990, Voropai and Ivanova, 2002, and Wu et al, 2000. 7 See e.g., Arango and Larsen, 2011, Auriol and Blanc, 2009, Dubash, 2003, Gillwald, 2005, Gratwick and Eberhard, 2008, Gualberti et al, 2009, Habtetsion and Tsighe, 2007, Haselip, 2007, Haselip and Hilson, 2005, Haselip and Potter, 2010, Jamasb, 2006, Malgas and Eberhard, 2011, Mebratu and Wamukonya, 2007, Nagayama, 2007, Nagayama, 2009, Nagayama and Kashiwagi, 2007, Nyoike, 2002, Patlitzianas et al, 2006…”

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confidence: 99%

Energy Access Scenarios to 2030 for the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa

Bazilian

Nussbaumer

Rogner³

et al. 2011

SSRN Journal

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SummaryIn order to reach a goal of universal access to modern energy services in Africa by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy-makers and investors, and help guide power system design. To that end, and building on existing tools and analysis, we present several 'high-level', transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the sub-Saharan African power sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access. They are designed to provide the international community with an indication of the overall scale of the effort required. We find that most existing projections, using typical long-term forecasting methods for power planning, show roughly a threefold increase in installed generation capacity occurring by 2030, but more than a tenfold increase would likely be required to provide for full access -even at relatively modest levels of electricity consumption. This equates to approximately a 13% average annual growth rate, compared to a historical one (in the last two decades) of 1.7%. Abstract: In order to reach a goal of universal access to modern energy services in Africa by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy-makers and investors, and help guide power system design. To that end, and building on existing tools and analysis, we present several 'high-level', transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the subSaharan African power sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access. They are designed to provide the international community with an indication of the overall scale of the effort required. We find that most existing projections, using typical long-term forecasting methods for power planning, show roughly a threefold increase in installed generation capacity occurring by 2030, but more than a tenfold increase would likely be required to provide for full access -even at relatively modest levels of electricity consumption. This equates to approximately a 13% average annual growth rate, compared to a historical one (in the last two decades) of 1.7%. Keywords

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confidence: 99%

Energy Access Scenarios to 2030 for the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa

Bazilian

Nussbaumer

Rogner³

et al. 2011

SSRN Journal

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“…Sheinbaum (2010). The 'Cyclic Hypothesis' in electricity generation was studied by Arango and Larsen (2011). Table 1 show the electricity sector reform (partial or radical liberalisation) adopted in some Latin American countries in recent decades.…”

Section: Experience Of Electricity Reform In Latin Americamentioning

confidence: 99%

The Mexican electricity sector: Policy analysis and reform (1992–2009)

2013

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“…Los CAPEX son los costos de inversión de instalación de las plantas, teniendo en cuenta la tasa, definida por la CREG mediante la aplicación de la metodología de cálculo denominada Costo Promedio de Capital (WACC), con la cual se busca remunerar la inversión de los accionistas en la misma forma en que lo habría remunerado una empresa eficiente en un sector de riesgo comparable [13] como se muestra en (18). Los OPEX son los costos de generación de las plantas cuando éstas ya están en funcionamiento, utilizando el factor IDG que establece la capacidad efectiva de generación de las plantas.…”

Section: Re (17)unclassified