Cutting Russia’s Fossil Fuel Exports: Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain

Chepeliev, Maksym; Hertel, Thomas W.; Mensbrugghe, Dominique van der

doi:10.2139/ssrn.4081300

Cited by 21 publications

(33 citation statements)

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“…Recent efforts to estimate the economic effects of the Ukraine invasion and the subsequent sanctions using CGE modeling include Evenett and Muendler (2022), Chepeliev et al (2022), Felbermayr et al (2022), and WTO (2022. 53 Methodological and modelling differences between the various papers notwithstanding, it is instructive to compare the results generated by above authors with ours.…”

Section: Comparison Of Results With Recent Cge Estimates On the Effec...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This appears to capture most countries that have imposed sanctions of Russia+, except for smaller players such as New Zealand, Iceland, Liechtenstein, some ex-Warsaw Pact countries, or the Bahamas (any of which are hard to separate out in GTAP). 15 Compare Evenett and Muendler (2022); Chepeliev et al (2022). Felbermayr et al (2022) and WTO (2022) include a majority of the currently sanctioning Allies.…”

Section: Box 1 Background On the Russian And Belarusian Economies 18mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…17 Compare Evenett and Muendler (2022); Felbermayr et al (2022); WTO (2022), Scenario 5. Chepeliev et al (2022) and WTO (2022)…”

Section: Box 1 Background On the Russian And Belarusian Economies 18mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimating the economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An Allied trade embargo

Mahlstein¹,

McDaniel

Schropp

et al. 2022

World Economy

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This brief aims to contribute to the ongoing discussion on the use of sanctions as a coercive tool of international policymaking, focusing on the economic effects of the sanctions on the Russian Federation ("Russia") following its invasion of Ukraine. Using computable general equilibrium modeling, we explore the short-to medium-term economic effects of a possible trade embargo by Allied countries imposed on Russia and Belarus. We consider the Allied trade embargo as a set of comprehensive trade sanctions that includes (i) import-related measures, (ii) export-related measures, (iii) FDI-related measures, and, as a spill-over effect, (iv) increased trade costs between Russia and non-Allies.We find that Russia would sustain sizable losses of upwards of 14% of real GDP from an Allied trade embargo, even in the short run. The largest contribution to Russia's economic pain results from the exit of Allied foreign direct investment (FDI). Belarus is only marginally affected by an Allied trade embargo. Allied economies are unevenly affected by the sanctions, with real GDP losses between 0.1% and 1.6%. Non-allied economies benefit from some trade diversion, but experience even larger losses from the increased costs of trading and doing business with Russia. For example, real GDP losses to China, India, and Turkey are 0.02%, 0.04%, and 0.13%, respectively. China joining the group of Allies results in greater economic losses for Russia; Allied economies and China would be adversely affected by this move. Finally, Russia would suffer significantly higher losses if it were the party enacting countersanctions, rather than resigning itself to being a sanction target.

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Section: Comparison Of Results With Recent Cge Estimates On the Effec...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Box 1 Background On the Russian And Belarusian Economies 18mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Estimating the economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An Allied trade embargo

Mahlstein¹,

McDaniel

Schropp

et al. 2022

World Economy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Using computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, a number of recent contributions have estimated the economic effects of Allied import measures on Russia, the Allies, and non-sanctioning countries (see, e.g., Chepeliev et al 2022;Felbermayr et al 2022;Evenett and Muendler 2022;Langot et al 2022;Mahlstein et al 2022;WTO 2022). These papers have either modeled complete import bans by Allies (see, e.g., Chepeliev et al 2022;Felbermayr et al 2022;Mahlstein et al 2022), or simply assumed tariff increases of a certain magnitude (Evenett and Muendler 2022;WTO 2022, Scenario 2(b)). In addition, all these papers have develop assumptions about the Russian export sectors that would be targeted by Allies.…”

Section: Motivation Methodology and Road Mapmentioning

confidence: 99%

Designing 'optimal' Sanctions on Russian Imports

Schropp

Tsigas²

2022

SSRN Journal

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“…Using a multi-sector, partial equilibrium model with demand spillovers, DiBella, Flanagan, Foda, Maslova, Pienkowski, Stuermer, and Toscani (2022) find an average effect of -1.8 percent on EU countries' GDP. Other studies focus on energy imports from Russia more broadly (see Langot and Tripier (2022), Baqaee, Moll, Landais, and Martin (2022), Chepeliev, Hertel, and Mensbrugghe (2022), European Central Bank (2022) and others) and find heterogeneous effects across countries, reflecting country-specific differences.The European Central Bank (2022) takes into account aggregate demand effects of a broader energy shut-off due to nominal rigidities.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%