Designing 'optimal' Sanctions on Russian Imports

Schropp, Simon; Tsigas, Marinos

doi:10.2139/ssrn.4148464

Cited by 2 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 8 publications

(8 reference statements)

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“…One obvious strategy could be for the Allies to reduce trade barriers among themselves. Another could be burden‐sharing plans or adjustment assistance between the extreme and the moderate losers (see Schropp and, not & Tsigas, 2022 for a model of burden‐sharing among Allies). The impact on non‐Allies could be negative : While, as expected, non‐Allies benefit from trade diversion effects, they experience even higher losses from increased transaction costs of doing business with Russia+ (component (iv)). That is, non‐Allies are trading more with a country that is more costly to do business with due to banking sanctions, trade sanctions, legal troubles and reputational risks.…”

Section: Results and Interpretationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One obvious strategy could be for the Allies to reduce trade barriers among themselves. Another could be burden-sharing plans or adjustment assistance between the extreme and the moderate losers (see Schropp & Tsigas, 2022 for a model of burden-sharing among Allies). 44…”

Section: Interpretation and Policy Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The tariff revenues collected in the process can then be used to (partially) compensate losers among the group of Allies. SeeSchropp and Tsigas (2022). Of course, this presupposes a selection of sectors with low pass-through, such that Russian+ producers, rather than Allied consumers, pay the import tariffs.45 Notable exceptions here are India and South Africa.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Estimating the economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An Allied trade embargo

Mahlstein¹,

McDaniel

Schropp

et al. 2022

World Economy

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This brief aims to contribute to the ongoing discussion on the use of sanctions as a coercive tool of international policymaking, focusing on the economic effects of the sanctions on the Russian Federation ("Russia") following its invasion of Ukraine. Using computable general equilibrium modeling, we explore the short-to medium-term economic effects of a possible trade embargo by Allied countries imposed on Russia and Belarus. We consider the Allied trade embargo as a set of comprehensive trade sanctions that includes (i) import-related measures, (ii) export-related measures, (iii) FDI-related measures, and, as a spill-over effect, (iv) increased trade costs between Russia and non-Allies.We find that Russia would sustain sizable losses of upwards of 14% of real GDP from an Allied trade embargo, even in the short run. The largest contribution to Russia's economic pain results from the exit of Allied foreign direct investment (FDI). Belarus is only marginally affected by an Allied trade embargo. Allied economies are unevenly affected by the sanctions, with real GDP losses between 0.1% and 1.6%. Non-allied economies benefit from some trade diversion, but experience even larger losses from the increased costs of trading and doing business with Russia. For example, real GDP losses to China, India, and Turkey are 0.02%, 0.04%, and 0.13%, respectively. China joining the group of Allies results in greater economic losses for Russia; Allied economies and China would be adversely affected by this move. Finally, Russia would suffer significantly higher losses if it were the party enacting countersanctions, rather than resigning itself to being a sanction target.

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Section: Results and Interpretationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Interpretation and Policy Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimating the economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An Allied trade embargo

Mahlstein¹,

McDaniel

Schropp

et al. 2022

World Economy

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“…РАН, е-mail: director@cemi.rssi.ru 2 Подготовлено по материалам доклада на VIII Санкт-Петербургском экономическом конгрессе (СПЭК-2023) «Промышленная политика в условиях вызовов глобальной трансформации: теория и практика перехода к новому этапу индустриального развития (НИО.2)» (31 марта 2023 года). 3 Исследование выполнено в рамках проекта Российского научного фонда № 21-18-00136 «Разработка программно-аналитического комплекса для оценки последствий межстрановых торговых войн с приложением для функционирования в системе распределенных ситуационных центров России».…”

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“…А сейчас тон исследований стал более агрессивным. К примеру, одно из них, выполненное консорциумом из 24 стран на базе The European University Institute, называется «Разработка оптимальных санкций против России» [3]. На базе модели GTAP рассчитывалось множество сценариев для поиска оптимального, предполагающего максимальное снижение ВВП РФ и минимальное для членов альянса из 40 стран, осуществляющих антироссийскую экономическую политику.…”

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The challenges of forecasting under current conditions

Bakhtizin¹

2023

Econ. Rev. Rus.

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The paper analyzes the forecasting issues under modern conditions using mathematical models, the development of which is the main specialization of the Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The author presents a comparative analysis of forecasting methods (by IMF and Central Bank) using mathematical tools. The bias of the providers of economic forecasts using these forecasts to manipulate public opinion is shown. Their inadequacy during periods of disturbances in economic systems is substantiated. The author proposes alternative methods for the analysis of economic systems. The fundamental importance of compensatory measures that help reduce the negative effect of sanctions and promote economic development is noted. The main task of Russian forecasters is to actively counter the aggressive information flow.

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Designing 'optimal' Sanctions on Russian Imports

Cited by 2 publications

References 8 publications

Estimating the economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An Allied trade embargo

Estimating the economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An Allied trade embargo

The challenges of forecasting under current conditions

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