Current and future precipitation extremes over Mississippi and Yangtze River basins as simulated in CMIP5 models

Pan, Zaitao; Zhang, Yuanjie; Liu, Xiaodong; Gao, Zhiqiu

doi:10.1007/s12583-016-0627-2

Cited by 30 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…Our results suggest that between 1980-2005 and 2020-2049, projections of change to the basin's annual mean temperature are expected to rise on average by 1.81 • C (2.26 • C) and annual precipitation by 3.62% (7.65%) under RCP4.5 (or RCP8.5) until the middle of this century. The temperature increase and this small increase in precipitation agree with other analyses of projected changes from CMIP5 models [84][85][86] and from some RCMs [87][88][89].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in the Yangtze River Basin with an Ensemble of Regional Climate Simulations

Yang

et al. 2018

Water

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This paper estimates the likely impacts of future climate change on streamflow, especially the hydrological extremes over the Yangtze River basin. The future climate was projected by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment in East Asia (CORDEX-EA) initiative for the periods 2020–2049 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. The bias corrected outputs from five regional climate models (RCMs) were used in conjunction with the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model to produce hydrological projections. For the future climate of the Yangtze River basin, outputs from an ensemble of RCMs indicate that the annual mean temperature will increase for 2020–2049 by 1.81 °C for RCP4.5 and by 2.26 °C for RCP8.5. The annual mean precipitation is projected to increase by 3.62% under RCP4.5 and 7.65% under RCP8.5. Overall, increases in precipitation are amplified in streamflow, and the change in streamflow also shows significant temporal and spatial variations and large divergence between regional climate models. At the same time, the maximum streamflow in different durations are also projected to increase at three mainstream gauging stations based on flood frequency analysis. In particular, larger increases in maximum 1-day streamflow (+14.24% on average) compared to 5-day and 15-day water volumes (+12.79% and +10.24%) indicate that this projected extreme streamflow increase would be primarily due to intense short-period rainfall events. It is necessary to consider the impacts of climate change in future water resource management.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in the Yangtze River Basin with an Ensemble of Regional Climate Simulations

Yang

et al. 2018

Water

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“…Nevertheless, the extreme precipitation is relatively high in the study area and accounts for up to 40% of the total annual precipitation in many years, which is expressed as the ratio between R95p and PRCPTOT. Furthermore, based on the CMIP5 models, Pan et al [64] proposed that all categories of precipitation are projected to increase in frequency over the coming decades.…”

Section: Temporal Climatic Variations and Possible Connections With Amentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In light of Equation (2), we propose that the positive impact of SU25 on the ecosystem will be more remarkable in the future due to the rise in both contribution rate and summer days over time. R50, R95p and R99p have increased during the past decades ( Figure 2) and are expected to increase in frequency over the coming decades [64]. As a result, special attention should also be given to the western regions of Hubei Province, where high rapid urbanization makes the region more vulnerable to future precipitation extremes.…”

Section: Impacts Of Climate Indices On the Ecosystemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Extremes and Their Impacts on Interannual Vegetation Variabilities: A Case Study in Hubei Province of Central China

et al. 2018

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As the frequency and intensity of climate extremes are likely to be substantially modified in upcoming decades due to climate warming, an evaluation of the response of interannual vegetation variabilities to climate extremes is imperative. This study comprehensively analyzed the spatio-temporal variabilities of 21 temperature and precipitation indices across Hubei Province in Central China based on daily meteorological records for the period 1961-2015. To quantify the sensitivity of the vegetation to climate indices in the study area, we correlated climate indices with three vegetation indicators: leaf area index, normalized difference vegetation index, and gross primary productivity. The results indicated that warm-related indices exerted considerable increasing trends, especially for summer days at a rate of 0.35 days year −1 (p < 0.01). In addition, the trends of 18 indices during 1982-2015 were larger than those during 1961-2015, indicating accelerated climate changes in Hubei Province. Spatially, extreme precipitation showed increases in the eastern regions of the study area and decreases in the western regions. Correlation analyses revealed that warm anomalies of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation resulted in extreme warm conditions and extreme precipitation in the study area. Stepwise linear regression analyses identified three temperature indices and three precipitation indices, which were mostly correlated with the three ecosystem variables at the site scale. Further multiple regressions demonstrated the main negative impacts caused by frost days, warm spell duration, extremely heavy precipitation, and consecutive dry days on the terrestrial ecosystem in Hubei Province. Our study provides an improved understanding of the effects of climate extremes on terrestrial ecosystems and can also offer a basis for the management of mitigating damage from climate extremes.

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“…Climate models' simulations are consistent with the observed increases in the historical period (Fischer & Knutti, ). For the future period in late 21st century, climate models predict the increasing heavy precipitation probability on the global average (Dai et al, ), and over specific regions such as the United States (Wuebbles et al, ), Australia (Bao et al, ), and China (Pan et al, ). One of our motivations is to better understand the precipitation probability in various intensities and the predicted changes by comparing a global cloud‐resolving model (CRM) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precipitation Probability and Its Future Changes From a Global Cloud‐Resolving Model and CMIP6 Simulations

Kodama

2020

JGR Atmospheres

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This study investigates precipitation probability and its future changes using simulations from the Non‐hydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), a global cloud‐resolving model, and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. For the precipitation probability comparison between models and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) during 1998–2008, the difference is greatly reduced by regridding to a common coarser resolution, but the difference signs largely remain. Both NICAM and CMIP6 model ensemble mean show less global‐mean nonprecipitation fractions than observations, but NICAM agrees better with observations. For global‐mean light precipitation probability, NICAM (CMIP6 model ensemble mean) is smaller (larger) than TRMM. NICAM shows higher heavy precipitation probability than TRMM in native resolutions, but it is close to TRMM and falls in the CMIP6 model range after regridding. For the precipitation probability changes from 1979–2008 to 2075–2104, NICAM predicts an increase in nonprecipitation and extreme heavy (>100 mm/day) precipitation probability but a slight decrease in the probability for precipitation <100 mm/day. After regridding to 2.5o, the precipitation intensity where the probability starts to increase becomes ~20 mm/day and the relative increases in nonprecipitation and heavy precipitation probability become much larger. Future heavy precipitation probability relative increases from CMIP6 models are much larger than NICAM at their native resolutions, but NICAM falls in the CMIP6 model range after regridding, indicating robust future increase (decrease) in heavy (light) precipitation probability regardless of underlying convection treatments. Discrepancy, however, exists in the projected nonprecipitation fraction changes: NICAM shows that nonprecipitation probability will increase over most of low and middle latitudes where CMIP6 models show less increases and even decreases.

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Current and future precipitation extremes over Mississippi and Yangtze River basins as simulated in CMIP5 models

Cited by 30 publications

References 74 publications

Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in the Yangtze River Basin with an Ensemble of Regional Climate Simulations

Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in the Yangtze River Basin with an Ensemble of Regional Climate Simulations

Climate Extremes and Their Impacts on Interannual Vegetation Variabilities: A Case Study in Hubei Province of Central China

Precipitation Probability and Its Future Changes From a Global Cloud‐Resolving Model and CMIP6 Simulations

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